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Full-Text Articles in Statistical Models
Forecasting Television Ratings, Peter Danaher, Tracey Dagger, Michael Smith
Forecasting Television Ratings, Peter Danaher, Tracey Dagger, Michael Smith
Michael Stanley Smith
Despite the state of flux in media today, television remains the dominant player globally for advertising spend. Since television advertising time is purchased on the basis of projected future ratings, and ad costs have skyrocketed, there is increasing pressure to forecast television ratings accurately. Previous forecasting methods are not generally very reliable and many have not been validated, but more distressingly, none have been tested in today’s multichannel environment. In this study we compare 8 different forecasting models, ranging from a naïve empirical method to a state-of-the-art Bayesian model-averaging method. Our data come from a recent time period, 2004-2008 in …