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Modeling Longitudinal Data Using A Pair-Copula Decomposition Of Serial Dependence, Michael S. Smith, Aleksey Min, Carlos Almeida, Claudia Czado
Modeling Longitudinal Data Using A Pair-Copula Decomposition Of Serial Dependence, Michael S. Smith, Aleksey Min, Carlos Almeida, Claudia Czado
Michael Stanley Smith
Copulas have proven to be very successful tools for the flexible modelling of cross-sectional dependence. In this paper we express the dependence structure of continuous-valued time series data using a sequence of bivariate copulas. This corresponds to a type of decomposition recently called a ‘vine’ in the graphical models literature, where each copula is entitled a ‘pair-copula’. We propose a Bayesian approach for the estimation of this dependence structure for longitudinal data. Bayesian selection ideas are used to identify any independence pair-copulas, with the end result being a parsimonious representation of a time-inhomogeneous Markov process of varying order. Estimates are …