Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

An Introduction To Calling Bullshit: Learning To Think Outside The Black Box, Jevin D. West, Carl T. Bergstrom

Numeracy

Bergstrom, Carl T. and Jevin D. West. 2020. Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World. (New York: Random House) 336 pp. ISBN 978-0525509202.

While statistical methods receive greater attention, the art of critically evaluating information in everyday life more commonly depends on thinking outside the black box of the algorithm. In this piece we introduce readers to our book and associated online teaching materials—for readers who want to more capably call “bullshit” or to teach their students to do the same.

Review Of Social Workers Count: Numbers And Social Issues By Michael Anthony Lewis, Michael T. Catalano

Numeracy

Lewis, Michael Anthony. 2017. Social Workers Count: Numbers and Social Issues. 2019. New York: Oxford University Press. 223 pp. ISBN 978-019046713-5

The numeracy movement, although largely birthed within the mathematics community, is an outside-the-box endeavor which has always sought to break down or at least transgress traditional disciplinary boundaries. Michael Anthony Lewis’s book is a testament that this effort is succeeding. Lewis is a social worker and sociologist with an impressive resume, author of Economics for Social Workers, co-editor of The Ethics and Economics of the Basic Income Guarantee, and member of the faculty at the Silberman School …

Bayesian Reliability Analysis For Optical Media Using Accelerated Degradation Test Data, Kun Bu

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

ISO (the International Organization for Standardization) 10995:2011 is the inter-national standard providing guidelines for assessing the reliability and service life of optical media, which is designed to be highly reliable and possesses a long lifetime. A well-known challenge of reliability analysis for highly reliable devices is that it is hard to obtain sufficient failure data under their normal use conditions. Accelerated degradation tests (ADTs) are commonly used to quickly obtain physical degradation data under elevated stress conditions, which are then extrapolated to predict reliability under the normal use condition. This standard achieves the estimation of the lifetime of recordable media, …

Art, Artfulness, Or Artifice?: A Review Of The Art Of Statistics: How To Learn From Data, By David Spiegelhalter, Jason Makansi

Numeracy

David Spiegelhalter. 2019. The Art of Statistics: How to Learn From Data. (London: The Penguin Group). 444 pp. ISBN 978-1541618510

The author successfully eases the reader away from the rigor of statistical methods and calculations and into the realm of statistical thinking. Despite an engaging style and attention-grabbing examples, the reader of The Art of Statistics will need more than a casual grounding in statistics to get what Spiegelhalter, I believe, intends from his book. It should be viewed as a companion to a more rigorous textbook on statistical methods but not necessarily a book that makes statistics any …

The Author’S Reflections On No B.S. (Bad Stats): Black People Need People Who Believe In Black People Enough Not To Believe Every Bad Thing They Hear About Black People, Ivory A. Toldson

Numeracy

Toldson, Ivory. A. 2019. No BS (Bad Stats): Black People Need People Who Believe in Black People Enough Not to Believe Every Bad Thing They Hear About Black People (Boston, MA: Brill-Sense) 194 pp. ISBN 978-9004397026.

This essay provides an introduction to No BS (Bad Stats): Black People Need People Who Believe in Black People Enough Not to Believe Every Bad Thing They Hear About Black People. In the essay, the author discusses how cynical views about the educational potential of Black children motivated him to write a book that challenges negative statistics. The essay also outlines the harmful …

Gradient Boosting For Survival Analysis With Applications In Oncology, Nam Phuong Nguyen

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Cancer is one of the most deadly diseases that the world has been fighting against over decades. An enormous number of research has been conducted, via a wide scale of approaches, raging from genetic analysis to mathematical modeling. Survival analysis is a well-performed methodology frequently used to estimate the survival probability of a patient. Although there has been a large number of methods for survival analysis, efficient exploration of a high-dimensional feature space has been challenging due to its computational cost and complexity. This thesis adapts the component-wise gradient boosting algorithms for cancer survival analysis, and also proposes a new …

Fractional Random Weighted Bootstrapping For Classification On Imbalanced Data With Ensemble Decision Tree Methods, Sean Charles Carter

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Ensemble methods are commonly used for building predictive models for classification. Models that are unstable to perturbations in the training set, such as the decision tree, often see considerable reductions in error when grouped, using bootstrapped resamples of the training data to train many models. The non-parametric bootstrap, however, has limited efficacy when used on severely imbalanced data, especially when the number of observations of one or more classes is exceptionally small. We explore the fractional random weighted bootstrap, which randomly assigns fractional weights to observations, as an alternative resampling pro cedure in training machine learning ensembles, particularly decision tree …

Calculus Of The Impossible: Review Of The Improbability Principle (2014) By David Hand And The Logic Of Miracles (2018) By Lásló Mérő, Samuel L. Tunstall

Numeracy

David J. Hand. 2014. The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day (New York, NY: Scientific American/Farrar, Straus and Giroux) 288 pp. ISBN: 978-0374175344.

Lásló Mérő. 2018. The Logic of Miracles: Making Sense of Rare, Really Rare, and Impossibly Rare Events (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press) 288 pp. ISBN: 978-0300224153.

David Hand and Lásló Mérő both grapple with the occurrence of seemingly impossible events in these two popular science books. In this comparative review, I describe the two books, and explain why I prefer Hand's treatment of the impossible.

Why I Believe People Need Painting By Numbers, Jason Makansi

Numeracy

Jason Makansi.2016. Painting By Numbers: How to Sharpen Your BS Detector and Smoke Out the Experts (Tucson AZ: Layla Dog Press). 196 pp. ISBN 978-0998425900.

This piece briefly introduces my Painting By Numbers, which aims to take the core messages of the QL/QR community from academic and professional circles to the rest of the citizenry. I describe the book in the context of the critical need for the most basic numeracy tools to help consumers of news, information, and analysis—delivered through traditional and contemporary social media outlets—determine where a reported numerical result lies on the scale from utter nonsense …

Applied Mathematics In The Humanities: Review Of Nonparametric Statistics For The Behavioral Sciences By Sidney Siegel And N. John Castellan, Jr. (2nd Ed., 1988), Paul H. Grawe

Numeracy

Sydney Siegel and N. John Castellan, Jr. Nonparametric Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences, Second Edition (New York NY: McGraw Hill, 1988). 399 pp. ISBN: 9780070573574.

Almost 60 years ago, Sidney Siegel wrote a stellar book helping anyone in academe to use nonparametric statistics, but ironically, 60 years after that achievement, American higher education confesses itself to be in the worst Quantitative Teaching Crisis of all time. The key clue to solving that crisis may be in Siegel and Castellan’s title, Nonparametric Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences, which quietly and perhaps unconsciously excludes the Humanities.

Yet it is in humanistic …

Review Of Naked Statistics: Stripping The Dread From Data By Charles Wheelan, Michael T. Catalano

Numeracy

Wheelan, Charles. Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from Data (New York, NY, W. W. Norton & Company, 2014). 282 pp. ISBN 978-0-393-07195-5

In his review of What Numbers Say and The Numbers Game, Rob Root (Numeracy 3(1): 9) writes “Popular books on quantitative literacy need to be easy to read, reasonably comprehensive in scope, and include examples that are thought-provoking and memorable.” Wheelan’s book certainly meets this description, and should be of interest to both the general public and those with a professional interest in numeracy. A moderately diligent learner can get a decent understanding of basic statistics …

Optimized Correlation Of Geophysical And Geotechnical Methods In Sinkhole Investigations: Emphasizing On Spatial Variations In West-Central Florida, Henok Gidey Kiflu

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Abstract

Sinkholes and sinkhole-related features in West-Central Florida (WCF) are commonly identified using geotechnical investigations such as standard penetration test (SPT) borings and geophysical methods such as ground penetrating radar (GPR) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). Geophysical investigation results can be used to locate drilling and field testing sites while geotechnical investigation can be used to ground truth geophysical results. Both methods can yield complementary information. Geotechnical investigations give important information about the type of soil, groundwater level and presence of low-density soils or voids at the test location, while geophysical investigations like GPR surveys have better spatial coverage and …

Incorporating Quantitative Reasoning In Common Core Courses: Mathematics For The Ghost Map, John R. Jungck

Numeracy

How can mathematics be integrated into multi-section interdisciplinary courses to enhance thematic understandings and shared common readings? As an example, four forms of quantitative reasoning are used to understand and critique one such common reading: Steven Berlin Johnson’s "The Ghost Map: The Story of London's Most Terrifying Epidemic - and How it Changed Science, Cities and the Modern World" (Riverhead Books, 2006). Geometry, statistics, modeling, and networks are featured in this essay as the means of depicting, understanding, elaborating, and critiquing the public health issues raised in Johnson’s book. Specific pedagogical examples and resources are included to illustrate applications and …

Period Life Tables: A Resource For Quantitative Literacy, Thomas J. Pfaff, Stanley Seltzer

Numeracy

A period life table provides an estimate of the probability that a person will die at a particular age. Using data available online, we examine tables of expected years to live for males and females against age for three populations: the United States in 2007, the U.S. at the turn of the twentieth century, and the Roman Empire. Scatter plots of males and females for each population show how life expectancy increases with age (e.g., U.S. 2007: 50 year-old female > 40 year-old female > 45 year-old male). The three data sets allow historical comparisons (e.g., of gender disparity, larger now; of …

Constructivist And Behaviorist Approaches: Development And Initial Evaluation Of A Teaching Practice Scale For Introductory Statistics At The College Level, Rossi A. Hassad

Numeracy

This study examined the teaching practices of 227 college instructors of introductory statistics from the health and behavioral sciences. Using primarily multidimensional scaling (MDS) techniques, a two-dimensional, 10-item teaching-practice scale, TISS (Teaching of Introductory Statistics Scale), was developed. The two dimensions (subscales) are characterized as constructivist and behaviorist; they are orthogonal. Criterion validity of the TISS was established in relation to instructors’ attitude toward teaching, and acceptable levels of reliability were obtained. A significantly higher level of behaviorist practice (less reform-oriented) was reported by instructors from the U.S., as well as instructors with academic degrees in mathematics and engineering, whereas …

Quantitative Literacy At Michigan State University, 2: Connection To Financial Literacy, Dennis Gilliland, Vince Melfi, Alla Sikorskii, Edward Corcoran, Eleanor Melfi

Numeracy

The lack of capability of making financial decisions has been recently described for the adult United States population. A concerted effort to increase awareness of this crisis, to improve education in quantitative and financial literacy, and to simplify financial decision-making processes is critical to the solution. This paper describes a study that was undertaken to explore the relationship between quantitative literacy and financial literacy for entering college freshmen. In summer 2010, incoming freshmen to Michigan State University were assessed. Well-tested financial literacy items and validated quantitative literacy assessment instruments were administered to 531 subjects. Logistic regression models were used to …

Quantitative Literacy At Michigan State University, 1: Development And Initial Evaluation Of The Assessment, Alla Sikorskii, Vince Melfi, Dennis Gilliland, Jennifer Kaplan, Suzie Ahn

Numeracy

Development, psychometric testing, and the results of the administration of a quantitative literacy (QL) assessment to undergraduate students are described. Three forms were developed covering a wide range of skills, contexts, and quantitative information presentation formats. Following item generation and revision based on preliminary testing and cognitive interviewing, a total of 3,701 consented undergraduate students at Michigan State University completed one of the three forms. Two of the forms contained 14 multiple-choice items, and one form contained 17 multiple-choice items. All forms were completed by students in less than 30 minutes. Evidence of validity and reliability were obtained for the …

A Quantitative Literacy View Of Natural Disasters And Nuclear Facilities, C. B. Connor

Numeracy

The March 11, 2011 earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster in Tohoku, Japan, highlights the need to improve quantitative literacy (QL) in natural hazard assessment. A critical understanding of natural hazard assessments requires a sophisticated perspective on the mathematical and statistical tools used to estimate the odds of disaster, and the roles of data quality, model development, and subjective probability in estimation of uncertainty. Thus, improved QL is a basic requirement for improved decision-making about the safety of critical infrastructure, such as nuclear facilities.

A Leap Forward For Quantitative Literacy, H. L. Vacher

Numeracy

The Association of American College and Universities’ Learning Education and America’s Promise (LEAP) initiative has identified quantitative literacy (QL) as one of its Essential Learning Outcomes and classified it amongst five other Intellectual and Practical Skills such as inquiry and analysis, critical and creative thinking, and written and oral communication. This brings to mind a spreadsheet in which these transdisciplinary intellectual and practical skills are rows and academic disciplines are columns. With the view that the learning outcome QL is a row crossing mathematics and other disciplinary columns, this editorial considers how the papers in this and previous issues of …

Personal And Professional Numeracy: A Unit For Pre-Service Teachers At The University Of Tasmania, Jane M. Watson

Numeracy

This paper addresses issues associated with the development of a unit preparing pre-service teachers to be quantitatively literate in three respects. These issues surround (i) the need to be aware of numeracy demands across the curriculum, (ii) the need to model numerate behavior in all interactions of teachers, and (iii) the need to be able to interpret and use system data provided from local and national testing programs. The context for the unit described is Australia, where a national testing program for literacy and numeracy requires teachers to analyze extensive data on their students, a national curriculum requires teachers of …

Reorganizing School Mathematics For Quantitative Literacy, Rick Gillman

Numeracy

This paper offers an alternative curriculum for high school mathematics. It proposes replacing the Algebra-Geometry-Algebra rush to calculus model with one which focuses on improving student problem-solving skills and general quantitative literacy skills while reinforcing basic manipulative skills. Most of these goals are gained by expanding the current single-year algebra-one course into two years. The model proposes moving “learning to write proofs” from the traditional geometry course into a separate discrete mathematics course. It requires statistics for every student, and requires a senior-level modeling course for every college-going student. In addition, the proposed model creates opportunities for students to move …

Quantitative Reasoning In The Contemporary World, 2: Focus Questions For The Numeracy Community, Bernard L. Madison, Shannon W. Dingman

Numeracy

Numerous questions about student learning of quantitative reasoning arose as we developed, taught and assessed the Quantitative Reasoning in the Contemporary World course described in the companion paper in this issue of Numeracy. In this paper, we present some of those questions and describe the context in which they arose. They fall into eight general problem areas: learning that is context-bound and does not easily transfer (i.e., situated learning); the need for a productive disposition regarding mathematics; the connection between QL and mathematical proficiency; the persistence of students, despite our efforts, for using the wrong base for percents; the inconsistent …

Quantitative Reasoning In The Contemporary World, 1: The Course And Its Challenges:, Shannon W. Dingman, Bernard L. Madison

Numeracy

The authors describe successes and challenges in developing a QL-friendly course at the University of Arkansas. This work is part of a three-year NSF project Quantitative Reasoning in the Contemporary World (QRCW) that supported the expansion of the course. The course, MATH 2183, began experimentally in Fall 2004 as a section of finite mathematics known informally as “News Math” for 26 students from arts and humanities disciplines. Over the past six years, the course has evolved and now MATH 2183 is approved to satisfy the College of Arts and Sciences mathematics requirement for the Bachelor of Arts degree. In 2009-2010, …

Advancing Assessment Of Quantitative And Scientific Reasoning, Donna L. Sundre, Amy D. Thelk

Numeracy

Advancing Assessment of Quantitative and Scientific Reasoning is a four-year NSF Project (DUE-0618599) in part designed to evaluate the generalizability of quantitative (QR) and scientific reasoning (SR) assessment instruments created at James Madison University to four other four-year institutions with very distinct missions and student demographics. This article describes the methods, results, and findings we obtained in our studies. More specifically, we describe how to conduct content-alignment exercises in which faculty members map each item from a prospective test to the student learning objectives taught at the institution. Our results indicated that 92-100% of the QR and SR items were …

An Activity Promoting The Practice Of Quantitative Literacy For Pre– And In–Service Teachers Of Mathematics And Science, Timothy L. Sorey, Teri Willard, Duane Sholz

Numeracy

The purpose of this article is to describe a hands-on, laboratory activity that provided pre-service teachers in mathematics and science methods courses, and also some in-service mathematics teachers, with the opportunity to exercise quantitative literacy (QL) skills. The focus of the activity is electrical resistance, more particularly the resistance (in ohms) that is painted on small resistors by the use of color-coded bands, one of which is a band for % error. The activity consists of four parts. In the first, student teams familiarize themselves with the code, measure the ohmage of resistors for which the codes are visible, and …

Are Statistics Labs Worth The Effort?--Comparison Of Introductory Statistics Courses Using Different Teaching Methods, Jose H. Guardiola, Nadina Duran-Hutchings, Hassan Elsalloukh

Numeracy

This paper compares the academic performance of students in three similar elementary statistics courses taught by the same instructor, but with the lab component differing among the three. One course is traditionally taught without a lab component; the second with a lab component using scenarios and an extensive use of technology, but without explicit coordination between lab and lecture; and the third using a lab component with an extensive use of technology that carefully coordinates the lab with the lecture. Extensive use of technology means, in this context, using Minitab software in the lab section, doing homework and quizzes using …

Review Of Super Crunchers By Ian Ayers, Eric Gaze

Numeracy

Ayers, I. Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to be Smart. (Bantam Dell Publishing Group, 2007). 272 pp. Hard cover $25 ISBN 978-0-553-80540-6.

Super Crunchers tells the story of how analyzing data is changing the ways in which decisions are made. We in the National Numeracy Network make a case for the importance of quantitative literacy by referring to how much quantitative information is now available to each of us: “a world awash in numbers.” Ian Ayres zeroes in on the people who are making a living crunching all of these data. From the seemingly innocuous (how …

Measuring Resource Inequality: The Gini Coefficient, Michael T. Catalano, Tanya L. Leise, Thomas J. Pfaff

Numeracy

This paper stems from work done by the authors at the Mathematics for Social Justice Workshop held in June of 2007 at Middlebury College. We provide a description of the Gini coefficient and some discussion of how it can be used to promote quantitative literacy skills in mathematics courses. The Gini Coefficient was introduced in 1921 by Italian statistician Corrado Gini as a measure of inequality. It is defined as twice the area between two curves. One, the Lorenz curve for a given population with respect to a given resource, represents the cumulative percentage of the resource as a function …

Using Local Data To Advance Quantitative Literacy, Stephen Sweet, Susanne Morgan, Danette Ifert Johnson

Numeracy

In this article we consider the application of local data as a means of advancing quantitative literacy. We illustrate the use of three different sources of local data: institutional data, Census data, and the National College Health Assessment survey. Our learning modules are applied in courses in sociology and communication, but the strategy of using local data can be integrated beyond these disciplinary boundaries. We demonstrate how these data can be used to stimulate student interests in class discussion, advance analytic skills, as well as develop capacities in written and verbal communication. We conclude by considering concerns that may influence …

Scientifically Based Research In Quantitative Literacy: Guidelines For Building A Knowledge Base, Richard L. Scheaffer

Numeracy

Research in quantitative literacy (QL) is in its infancy, so now is the time to begin a regimen for healthy growth into adulthood. As a new discipline still defining itself, QL has the opportunity to build a sound infrastructure for accumulating a solid body of interconnected research that will serve the discipline well in years to come. To that end, much can be learned from recent studies of the weaknesses of mathematics education research and recommendations on how to overcome them. Mathematics education lacks a strong research foundation, one that is scientific, cumulative, interconnected, and intertwined with teaching practice. These …