Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Early Warnings For State Transitions, Caleb P. Roberts, Dirac Twidwell, Jessica L. Burnett, Victoria M. Donovan, Carissa L. Wonkka, Christine L. Bielski, Ahjond S. Garmestani, David G. Angeler, Tarsha Eason, Brady W. Allred, Matthew O. Jones, David E. Naugle, Shana M. Sundstrom, Craig R. Allen

Papers in Natural Resources

New concepts have emerged in theoretical ecology with the intent to quantify complexities in ecological change that are unaccounted for in state-and-transition models and to provide applied ecologists with statistical early warning metrics able to predict and prevent state transitions. With its rich history of furthering ecological theory and its robust and broad-scale monitoring frameworks, the rangeland discipline is poised to empirically assess these newly proposed ideas while also serving as early adopters of novel statistical metrics that provide advanced warning of a pending shift to an alternative ecological regime. We review multivariate early warning and regime shift detection metrics, …

Game-Theoretic And Machine-Learning Techniques For Cyber-Physical Security And Resilience In Smart Grid, Longfei Wei

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The smart grid is the next-generation electrical infrastructure utilizing Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), whose architecture is evolving from a utility-centric structure to a distributed Cyber-Physical System (CPS) integrated with a large-scale of renewable energy resources. However, meeting reliability objectives in the smart grid becomes increasingly challenging owing to the high penetration of renewable resources and changing weather conditions. Moreover, the cyber-physical attack targeted at the smart grid has become a major threat because millions of electronic devices interconnected via communication networks expose unprecedented vulnerabilities, thereby increasing the potential attack surface. This dissertation is aimed at developing novel game-theoretic and …

The 'New Normal' Of Flooding In Portsmouth, Virginia: Perspectives, Experiences, And Adaptive Responses Of Residents And Business Owners In Low To Moderate-Income Communities, Donta Council, Michelle Covi, Wie Yusuf, Joshua Behr, Makayla Brown, Old Dominion University Resilience Collaborative, Virginia Sea Grant

Presentations, Lectures, Posters, Reports

[First three paragraphs from the Summary]

This project is a part of a broader initiative - the Resilience Adaptation Feasibility Tool (RAFT) - that addresses the daunting challenges coastal communities are facing related to sea level rise and climate change (more information about RAFT is available here: https://ien.virginia.edu/raft).

This aim of this project was to investigate how residents and business owners in low-to-moderate income communities in Portsmouth, Virginia cope with flooding, and to assess implications for how the local government can better engage with residents to better meet their information needs so they can be more resilient to flooding. The …

A New Normative Workflow For Integrated Life-Cycle Assessment, Karen Angeles, Dimitrios Patsialis, Tracy Kijewski-Correa, Alexandros Taflanidis, Charles F. Vardeman Ii, Aimee Buccellato

International Building Physics Conference 2018

In order to curtail energy use by the building sector, consideration of how a "sustainable" building is constructed is paramount, in many respects, to how efficiently it operates over its lifetime. A typical building must be in use for decades before the energy expended in its daily operations surpasses the energy embodied within its initial construction, as a result of the materials used. More vitally: every building has specific vulnerabilities, particularly to hazards (e.g., earthquakes, wind, flooding) whose effects on sustainability are not explicitly considered alongside other aspects of sustainability in the design process – despite the significant environmental impact …

Odu Resilience Collaborative: Presentation To The Hampton Roads Chapter Of Aspa, Wie Yusuf

Presentations, Lectures, Posters, Reports

Presentation to the Hampton Roads Chapter of ASPA on the work and projects of the ODU Resilience Collaborative.

Flood Resilience Community Outreach Using The Asert Framework, Michelle Covi, Wie Yusuf, Carol Considine, Gail Nicula, Afi Anuar, Makayla Brown

Presentations, Lectures, Posters, Reports

Report on a program for public engagement meetings using the ASERT (Action-oriented Stakeholder Engagement for a Resilient Tomorrow) framework to solicit resident input into the City of Virginia Beach’s Comprehensive Sea Level Rise and Recurrent Flooding Analysis and Planning Study. A series of community meetings from December 2017-January 2018 took the form of a “Flood Resilience Game Night” with five stations in which residents could participate in activities to earn stamps on a game card.

A Key Based Obfuscation And Anonymization Of Behavior Vhdl Models, Balausha Varshini Kandikonda

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Intellectual Property (IP) based Integrated Circuit (IC) design is an established approach for the design of a complex System-on-Chip (SoC). Porting the preparatory designs to third-party without enough security margin exposes an attacker to perform reverse engineering (RE) on the designs and hence counterfeiting, IP theft etc., are common now-a-days. Design obfuscation can reduce RE attempt by an attacker. In this work, we propose a key based obfuscation and anonymization method for a behavioral IP. Given a behavioral VHDL description, the assignment and conditional statements are modified by incorporating random boolean operations with unique random key bits. The obfuscated VHDL …

Improving Performance Of Iterative Methods By Lossy Checkponting, Dingwen Tao, Sheng Di, Xin Liang, Zizhong Chen, Franck Cappello

Computer Science Faculty Research & Creative Works

Iterative methods are commonly used approaches to solve large, sparse linear systems, which are fundamental operations for many modern scientific simulations. When the large-scale iterative methods are running with a large number of ranks in parallel, they have to checkpoint the dynamic variables periodically in case of unavoidable fail-stop errors, requiring fast I/O systems and large storage space. To this end, significantly reducing the checkpointing overhead is critical to improving the overall performance of iterative methods. Our contribution is fourfold. (1) We propose a novel lossy checkpointing scheme that can significantly improve the checkpointing performance of iterative methods by leveraging …

Protecting Energy Infrastructure Against The Uncertainty Of Future Climate Change: A Real Options Approach, Thomas Prime, Karyn Morrissey, Jennifer M. Brown, Andrew J. Plater

Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

The coastal impacts of climate change, including flooding and erosion due to storms and sea-level rise, and the possible adaptation responses have been studied using very different approaches; from very detailed site-specific, process-based investigations and interventions to global macroeconomic assessments of coastal zone vulnerability. This paper presents a flood defense real option analysis methodology that values potential investment decisions made in the building and maintaining of flood defenses around electricity infrastructure at local spatial scales for a large region. Real option analysis embraces uncertainty in future climate conditions and flexibility in the management of investment projects to produce a more …

Lava, Ash Flows, Mudslides And Nasty Gases: Good Reasons To Respect Volcanoes, Brittany Brand

Geosciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Volcanoes are beautiful and awe-inspiring, but the ongoing eruption of Kilauea on Hawaii’s Big Island is showing how dangerous these events can be. So far this event has destroyed dozens of homes and displaced hundreds of people, but no deaths or serious injuries have been reported. Other volcanic eruptions have had deadlier impacts.

Climate Communication Through A Community Perspective, Kathryn Mcgee

Senior Honors Projects, 2010-2019

This project utilized psychology and science communication strategies to develop creative, locally framed climate change messaging. Through an online survey of 300 Gloucester County, VA residents, community themes of place attachment, environmental connection, risk assessment and climate change acceptance were recorded. Using the results from the survey I created a website, https://guidinggloucester.wixsite.com/home, which serves as an avenue for communicating with Gloucester residents. The website displays the results of the survey, explains climate change information that is relevant to Gloucester County, and gives examples of local actions to help increase engagement in climate solutions. In addition to the website, I …

Marine Protected Areas In Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction: Defining "Success" For Conservation And Management, Emily Suzanne Nocito

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

With growing attention to and use of marine protected areas [MPAs], there are an increasing number of policy goals ascribed to these area-based management tools [ABMT]. One expectation is that an MPA can increase system “resilience”, yet oftentimes resilience – including whether we are considering social, economic or ecological resilience – stays unspecified. In recent years, there has also been a specific focus on MPAs as tools to promote climate change resilient ocean systems. Through a meta-analysis of the scientific literature and an analysis of over one thousand three hundred voluntary commitments made at the United Nation Ocean Conference, this …

Spatial Dynamics And Productivity Of A Gulf Of Mexico Commercial Reef Fish Fishery Following Large Scale Disturbance And Management Change, Marcy Lynn Cockrell

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The Gulf of Mexico commercial reef fish fishery has experienced significant management changes and disturbance in recent years, including transitioning two major fisheries from a traditional open access system into a limited entry individual fishing quota (IFQ) system in 2007 and 2010. Also in 2010, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (DWH) released an estimated 4.9 million barrels of oil into the Gulf (~206 million U.S. gallons), and is still the largest U.S. environmental disaster to date. Emergency fishing closures initiated shortly after the oil spill began were successful in keeping tainted seafood from reaching markets. However, effects of DWH closures …

Effects Of Warm Ocean Temperatures On Bull Kelp Forests In The Salish Sea, Braeden Schiltroth, Sherryl Bisgrove, Bill Heath

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference

Kelp beds are marine sanctuaries, providing some of the most productive ecosystems on the planet and serving as critical habitat and refuge for many species, including juvenile salmon. Rising ocean temperature associated with climate change is a major stressor contributing to declines of kelp forests worldwide. In the Salish Sea, we identified bull kelp (Nereocystis leutkeana) populations growing under two different temperature regimes. Since 2011, kelp growing in the central Strait of Georgia has been exposed to sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 15-21 °C in the summer months, which is 5-6 °C warmer than temperatures in the Strait of Juan …

Lessons Learned: Tidal Marsh Restoration In A Dynamic Context Of Stress And Climate Change, Roger Nathan Fuller

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference

In the Stillaguamish estuary, tidal wetlands have been receding for decades as a result of both natural and anthropogenic changes. Despite current restoration efforts, monitoring suggests that rising stress from climate change impacts on summer flows, legacy stresses from the levee system, and increased plant mortality from avian and insect herbivores may interact to accelerate the rate of marsh loss. Lessons learned from a 2012 restoration project should inform adaptive management and future restoration projects. Post-restoration monitoring has revealed a pattern of interacting stresses at both the site and system scales that affects marsh productivity and resilience to climate change. …

An Investigation Of Benthic Recovery And Climate Change Resilience In The Englishman River Estuary, Connie L. Miller Retzer, Thomas G. Reid, Peter K. Dekoning

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference

SNAPSHOT: A benthic monitoring program will be added in 2018 to the ongoing Englishman River Estuary recovery study, situated on the east coast of Vancouver Island. This will complement investigations which have been ongoing, prior to and following the removal of a berm during 2017. Changes in salinity patterns, flow regimes, channel morphology, elevation, sediment size, and vegetation distribution are being assessed and these variables will be used to map distinctive areas of the estuary. Benthic samples will be collected from representative areas and monitored over the long term. Relative and total abundance, species diversity, biomass, and various derivatives of …

Intermediate-Severity Wind Disturbance In Mature Temperate Forests: Legacy Structure, Carbon Storage, And Stand Dynamics, Garrett W. Meigs, William S. Keeton

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Wind is one of the most important natural disturbances influencing forest structure, ecosystem function, and successional processes worldwide. This study quantifies the stand-scale effects of intermediate-severity windstorms (i.e., blowdowns) on (1) live and dead legacy structure, (2) aboveground carbon storage, and (3) tree regeneration and associated stand dynamics at four mature, mixed hardwood–conifer forest sites in the northeastern United States. We compare wind-affected forests to adjacent reference conditions (i.e., undisturbed portions of the same stands) 0–8 yr post-blowdown using parametric (ANOVA) and nonparametric (NMS ordination) analyses. We supplement inventory plots and downed coarse woody detritus (DCWD) transects with hemispherical photography …

Coastal Vulnerability: Evolving Concepts In Understanding Vulnerable People And Places, Anthony Bevacqua, Danlin Yu, Yaojun Zhang

Department of Earth and Environmental Studies Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Coastal vulnerability is a spatial concept that identifies people and places that are susceptible to disturbances resulting from coastal hazards. Hazards in the coastal environment, such as coastal storms and erosion, pose significant threats to coastal physical, economic, and social systems. The theory of vulnerability has been an evolving idea over the past hundred years. In recent decades, improved technology and high-profile disaster events, has caused an increase in publications in the coastal hazards field. Modern approaches to understanding coastal vulnerability examine the complex systems that determine the spatial distribution of hazards, risks, and exposure. Consensus among today's researchers shows …

Throw Me A Lifeline: A Comparison Of Port Cities With Antithetical Adaptation Strategies To Sea-Level Rise, Claudia Marie Risner

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Sea-level rise (SLR) is a manifestation of climate change that is particularly hazardous to port cities that must remain on the waterfront to function, yet are increasingly battered and flooded by encroaching storms, and sinking into the rising saltwater. Despite sharing a common high level of risk, port cities are choosing antithetical adaptation strategies that range from hard-engineered structural flood protection, to behavioral modifications, to innovative soft-engineered measures, to doing nothing at all. Why is this? Are transnational city networks, such as C40 Cities, a lifeline to drowning cities? Do differences in governance structure, financial capacity, risk tolerance to the …

Analysis Of Temperature And Humidity Effects On Horizontal Photovoltaic Panels, Corey J. Booker

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Air Force seeks to address power grid vulnerability and bolster energy resilience through the use of renewable energy sources. Air Force Institute of Technology engineers designed and manufactured control systems to monitor power production from the most widely-used silicon-based solar cells at 38 testing locations around the globe spanning the majority of climate types. Researchers conducted multivariate regression analysis to establish a statistical relationship between photovoltaic power output, ambient temperature, and humidity pertaining to monocrystalline and polycrystalline photovoltaic panels. Formulated models first characterized power output globally, then by specific climate type with general inaccuracy. Location-specific models are …

People Like Me: Providing Relatable And Realistic Role Models For Underrepresented Minorities In Stem To Increase Their Motivation And Likelihood Of Success, Nir Aish, Philip Asare, Elif Eda Miskioglu

Faculty Conference Papers and Presentations

Despite efforts to increase participation of racial and ethnic minorities (excluding Asians) in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) in the United States, this group remains underrepresented in these fields. Many efforts to increase minority participation focus on support structures to help this group “get through” the pipeline. However, less attention has been paid to increasing their intrinsic motivation to pursue careers in STEM. Our work is focused on increasing this intrinsic motivation, looking at role models as external influences. Underrepresented minorities are faced with a limited role model pool and in many cases with role models (who we call …

Communication Based Control For Dc Microgrids, Mahmoud S. Saleh, Yusef Esa, Ahmed Mohamed

Publications and Research

Centralized communication-based control is one of the main methods that can be implemented to achieve autonomous advanced energy management capabilities in DC microgrids. However, its major limitation is the fact that communication bandwidth and computation resources are limited in practical applications. This can be often improved by avoiding redundant communications and complex computations. In this paper, an autonomous communication-based hybrid state/event driven control scheme is proposed. This control scheme is hierarchical and heuristic, such that on the primary control level, it encompasses state-driven local controllers, and on the secondary control level, an event-driven MG centralized controller (MGCC) is used. This …

Institutionalizing Resilience In Us Universities: Prospects, Opportunities, And Models, Morris Foster, James O'Donnell, Mark Luckenbach, Elizabeth Andrews, Emily Steinhilber, John Wells, Mark Davis

ODU Articles

[From Introduction]

The United States is taking a largely region-specific approach to addressing challenges posed by climate change, in contrast with national and international approaches in most of the rest of the world. In locations such as Hampton Roads, New Orleans, and coastal Connecticut, the impacts of climate change tend to be addressed as they become locally evident rather than as part of a larger anticipatory national plan. Given that regional focus, universities can play a unique role in how the United States responds to the challenges of a changing climate. Universities can be knowledge brokers positioned outside or across …

An Intergovernmental Blueprint For Community Resiliency: The Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise Preparedness And Resilience Intergovernmental Pilot Project, Ray Toll

ODU Articles

This special Marine Technology Society (MTS) Journal issue on resilience features authors presenting various perspectives on the challenges and solutions that we all must face. Many of these perspectives are a follow-up to the recommendations from a 2014–2016 pilot run by Old Dominion University (ODU) that used a whole-of-government/community approach to an integrated regional solution in Hampton Roads. An intergovernmental blueprint for community resiliency, The Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise Preparedness and Resilience Intergovernmental Pilot Project (convened by ODU and launched in June 2014 with MTS), was one of the three White House National Security Council pilots and one of …

Key Priorities And University Roles To Address Coastal Resilience In Virginia: Findings From The Rotating Resilience Roundtables Workshop Fall 2018, Anamaria Bukvic, Michelle Covi

Presentations, Lectures, Posters, Reports

From Part 1. Purpose and significance

The first Rotating Resilience Roundtables event took place on October 11 and 12, 2018 on the Virginia Tech campus in Blacksburg and was co-organized between the Coastal@VT initiative at Virginia Tech and Old Dominion University/Virginia Sea Grant Climate Adaptation and Resilience Program. It was designed to respond to the need for a cohesive and policy-relevant science that will align and coordinate efforts between researchers and other stakeholders to benefit the Commonwealth’s resilience planning for changing conditions in coastal zone. The Rotating Roundtables’ concept was selected to facilitate active engagement of audiences with different coastal …

The Climate-Smart Village Approach: Framework Of An Integrative Strategy For Scaling Up Adaptation Options In Agriculture, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Andy Jarvis, Bruce M. Campbell, Robert B. Zougmoré, Arun Khatri-Chhetri, Sonja J. Vermeulen, Ana Maria Loboguerrero, Leocadio S. Sebastian, James Kinyangi, Osana Bonilla-Findji, Maren Radeny, John Recha, Deissy Martinez-Baron, Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Sophia Huyer, Philip Thornton, Eva Wollenberg, James Hansen, Patricia Alvarez-Toro, Andrés Aguilar-Ariza, David Arango-Londoño, Victor Patiño-Bravo, Ovidio Rivera, Mathieu Ouedraogo, Bui Tan Yen

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Increasing weather risks threaten agricultural production systems and food security across the world. Maintaining agricultural growth while minimizing climate shocks is crucial to building a resilient food production system and meeting developmental goals in vulnerable countries. Experts have proposed several technological, institutional, and policy interventions to help farmers adapt to current and future weather variability and to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper presents the climate-smart village (CSV) approach as a means of performing agricultural research for development that robustly tests technological and institutional options for dealing with climatic variability and climate change in agriculture using participatory methods. It …

A Framework For Tracing Social–Ecological Trajectories And Traps In Intensive Agricultural Landscapes, Daniel R. Uden, Craig R. Allen, Francisco Munoz-Arriola, Gengxin Ou, Nancy Shank

Nebraska Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit -- Staff Publications

Charting trajectories toward sustainable agricultural development is an important goal at the food–energy–water–ecosystem services (FEWES) nexus of agricultural landscapes. Social–ecological adaptation and transformation are two broad strategies for adjusting and resetting the trajectories of productive FEWES nexuses toward sustainable futures. In some cases, financial incentives, technological innovations, and/or subsidies associated with the short-term optimization of a small number of resources create and strengthen unsustainable feedbacks between social and ecological entities at the FEWES nexus. These feedbacks form the basis of rigidity traps, which impede adaptation and transformation by locking FEWES nexuses into unsustainable trajectories characterized by control, stability, and efficiency, …

Improving Public Health Readiness For Sea Level Rise: A New Initiative In Coastal Virginia, Steven M. Becker

Community & Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Sea level has been rising around the world, and in recent decades, the rate has been accelerating. Because rising seas have the potential to directly or indirectly affect the health of vast numbers of coastal communities and inhabitants, public health agencies and professionals—in conjunction with other fields—have a pivotal role to play in helping to protect populations, reduce and prevent health impacts, and foster resilience. This article discusses a novel effort that has been undertaken in Coastal Virginia to help prepare the next generation of public health professionals to grapple with sea level rise issues. The effort grew out of …

Weathering Climate Change: Provisions For Climate Change Resiliency In Transboundary River Treaties, Emily Joan Zmak

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Climate change will be most apparent in alterations to the hydrologic system - shifts in movement, variations in extremes - thereby defining many resource disputes in the coming decades. Water is a boundaryless resource; as its hydrologic patterns shift within and without borders, so too will preexisting agreements on its use and allocation. The question for transboundary water agreements is: how can agreements both satisfy parties' needs and account for future uncertainties of climate-induced changes to their basins' hydrologic systems?

From examining literature and water agreements, this thesis develops a list of provisions identified as foundational to resiliency in transboundary …

A Method To Detect Discontinuities In Census Data, Chris Barichievy, David G. Angeler, Tarsha Eason, Ahjond S. Garmestani, Kirsty L. Nash, Craig A. Stow, Shana Sundstrom, Craig R. Allen

Nebraska Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit -- Staff Publications

The distribution of pattern across scales has predictive power in the analysis of complex systems. Discontinuity approaches remain a fruitful avenue of research in the quest for quantitative measures of resilience because discontinuity analysis provides an objective means of identifying scales in complex systems and facilitates delineation of hierarchical patterns in processes, structure, and resources. However, current discontinuity methods have been considered too subjective, too complicated and opaque, or have become computationally obsolete; given the ubiquity of discontinuities in ecological and other complex systems, a simple and transparent method for detection is needed. In this study, we present a method …