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2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

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The Use Of Large-Scale Climate Data To Predict Drought, River Flows, And Vegetation Over Central-Southwest Asia, Matthew Barlow Jun 2011

The Use Of Large-Scale Climate Data To Predict Drought, River Flows, And Vegetation Over Central-Southwest Asia, Matthew Barlow

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

Central-Southwest Asia is a semi-arid, economically stressed region where droughts have severe societal impacts in terms of agriculture, farming, access to fresh water for drinking, and sanitation. There are two sources of drought predictability for this area: the influence of predictable modes of large-scale climate variability at both seasonal and intraseasonal timescales, and the importance of the snow pack to warm season river flows and vegetation. Local data scarcity is a critical problem for the region, both for historical analysis and for real-time monitoring. However, analysis shows that satellite data can be used to provide a considerable amount of high-resolution …

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Building An Enhanced Drought Early Warning System (Dews): Tools And Services For Decision Support, Mark Svoboda Jun 2011

Building An Enhanced Drought Early Warning System (Dews): Tools And Services For Decision Support, Mark Svoboda

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

Perhaps no other hazard lends itself as well to the need for a diligent early warning system (DEWS) than drought. Droughts typically evolve slowly, but have the potential to cover very large areas compared to hazards like hurricanes, tornadoes and floods, which have a much smaller geographic footprint. The U.S. took first steps in 2006 toward developing coordinated and integrated DEWS through the creation of the National Integrated Drought Information System, or NIDIS. More recently, the National Drought Mitigation Center (http://drought.unl.edu) has been working with NIDIS and other international parties (WMO, GEO, United Nations, etc.) with a goal of developing …

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Analyzing Past And Predicting Future Drought With Comprehensive Drought Indices For Arkansas-Red River Basin, Lu Liu, Yang Hong, James E. Hocker Jun 2011

Analyzing Past And Predicting Future Drought With Comprehensive Drought Indices For Arkansas-Red River Basin, Lu Liu, Yang Hong, James E. Hocker

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

This study is intended to examine the past drought and predict future drought scenarios for Arkansas-Red River Basin with comprehensive drought indices ranging from meteorology, hydro-meteorology to hydrology. In this proceeding, we present some early results and analysis with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Historical climate data within the 1900-2009 timeframe were archived to derive the drought indices calculations. The projected A2, A1B climate data modules from 16 statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCM) were applied in drought occurrence frequency and affected area prediction. The results from the SPI and PDSI show that …

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Climatic Characterization And Response Of Water Resources To Climate Change In Limestone Areas: Some Considerations On The Importance Of Geological Setting, Di Matteo Lucio, Valigi Daniela, Cambi Costanza Jun 2011

Climatic Characterization And Response Of Water Resources To Climate Change In Limestone Areas: Some Considerations On The Importance Of Geological Setting, Di Matteo Lucio, Valigi Daniela, Cambi Costanza

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

It is worldwide recognized and accepted that, in Southern Europe and the Mediterranean area in the last hundred years, the atmospheric temperature has risen by about 1°C, accompanied by a general decrease in precipitation. The trends detected in historical thermo-pluviometric series recorded in South/Central Italy show a general decrease in precipitation on an annual scale and a concentration of negative trends in the months from October to March. Analysis of the Standard Precipitation Index for the period 1951-2008 indicates higher frequency and duration of droughts in the last two decades: four prolonged dry periods (each lasting for up to three …

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Exploring The Link Between Droughts And Atmospheric Aerosol Loading, Umarporn Charusombat, Dev Niyogi Jun 2011

Exploring The Link Between Droughts And Atmospheric Aerosol Loading, Umarporn Charusombat, Dev Niyogi

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

Are higher atmospheric aerosol levels and droughts related? To address this question, we explore the relation between atmospheric aerosol loading and droughts using insitu and satellite observations over different urban/rural settings and heterogeneous drought conditions. A related objective was to report on the relationship and the variability between aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and insitu particular matter (PM2.5 and PM10) over different land use. Daily measurement of PM2.5 and PM10 data were retrieved from seven EPA air quality monitoring stations in Indiana: Virgo, Lake and Clark County in urban area, Marion, Know and …

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Monitoring Drought In The Midwest, Steve Hilberg Jun 2011

Monitoring Drought In The Midwest, Steve Hilberg

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

Climate monitoring is one component of the mission of the Regional Climate Centers, and the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) has created web pages to provide near real-time monitoring of the weather and climate of the Midwest. A dedicated drought monitoring page was developed by the MRCC to provide a snapshot of current moisture conditions in the region using a number of specialized maps and products. Users are able to drill down to state and local conditions and impacts through links to the respective state climate offices and water resources agencies.

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Monitoring Drought Across Many Scales, Chris Funk Jun 2011

Monitoring Drought Across Many Scales, Chris Funk

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

Monitoring drought across many scales Chris Funk As gas and food prices increase while per capita harvested area decreases, drought and disruptions in food availability exert more and more pressure on the political and economic stability of ‘frailed’ states. Improved drought monitoring across many spatial and temporal time scales has therefore become increasingly important. As this need mounts, so have our capacities to observe and understand the earth’s climate. Relatively new satellite systems, such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer, allow us to watch the earth at scales of ~100 meters. Improved rainfall retrievals give us more timely and accurate …

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An Update On Noaa’S National Integrated Drought Information System, Doug Kluck Jun 2011

An Update On Noaa’S National Integrated Drought Information System, Doug Kluck

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

NOAA through the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) supports planning and early warning preparedness amongst communities and states. Since the inception of NIDIS in 2006 there have been a series of regional drought projects across the United States that have begun to help different groups renew or begin to plan for drought. This presentation will briefly touch upon some of the successes those pilot projects have achieved and where they are headed. In addition and overview of NIDIS and the drought portal will be included.

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Probabilistic Assessment Of Drought Characteristics Using A Hidden Markov Model, Ganeshchandra Mallya, Shivam Tripathi, Sergey Kirshner, Rao S. Govindaraju Jun 2011

Probabilistic Assessment Of Drought Characteristics Using A Hidden Markov Model, Ganeshchandra Mallya, Shivam Tripathi, Sergey Kirshner, Rao S. Govindaraju

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

Droughts are evaluated using drought indices that measure the departure of meteorological and hydrological variables such as precipitation and stream flow from their long-term averages. While there are many drought indices proposed in the literature, most of them use pre-defined thresholds for identifying drought classes ignoring the inherent uncertainties in characterizing droughts. In this study, a hidden Markov model (HMM) [1] is developed for probabilistic classification of drought states. The HMM captures space and time dependence in the data. The proposed model is applied to assess drought characteristics in Indiana using monthly precipitation and stream flow data. The comparison of …

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A Modified Standardized Precipitation Index For Drought Monitoring, Brent Mcroberts, John Nielsen-Gammon Jun 2011

A Modified Standardized Precipitation Index For Drought Monitoring, Brent Mcroberts, John Nielsen-Gammon

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

The SPI Blend is a modified Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) created for use in a newly developed, high-resolution drought monitoring tool, assessing drought using precipitation data on multiple time scales. Unlike the traditional SPI, the SPI Blend uses a linear weighting system that places a higher importance on recent precipitation within a time period. At each time scale, the MPE precipitation data are divided into several periods and the precipitation total from the most recent period is given the highest weight, with a linear decrease in the weights for succeeding periods. The high-resolution (4 km) precipitation data are obtained daily …

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