Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

California Drought Outlooks Based On Climate Change Models’ Effects On Water Availability, Lauren Lynam, Thomas Piechota

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Future streamflow in California is evaluated based on eight climate projections models and the effects on water availability. The unimpaired projected streamflow for eleven California rivers, collected from Cal-Adapt, are compared with unimpaired historical flows (1950–2015) using eight climate model projections (2020–2099) identified as representative as possible future scenarios; Warm Dry RCP 4.5, Average RCP 4.5, Cool Wet RCP 4.5, Other RCP 4.5, Warm Dry RCP 8.5, Average RCP 8.5, Cool Wet RCP 8.5, and Other RCP 8.5. Projected drought deficits (or magnitudes), durations, and intensities are statistically tested against historical values to determine significance of differences between past streamflow …

Managing Water Stored For The Environment During Drought, Sarah Null, Jeffrey Mount, Brian Gray, Michael Dettinger, Kristen Dybala, Gokce Sencan, Anna Sturrock, Barton Thompson, Harrison Zeff

Watershed Sciences Faculty Publications

Storing water in reservoirs is important for maintaining freshwater ecosystem health and protecting native species. Stored water also is essential for adapting to the changing climate, especially warming and drought intensification. Yet, reservoir operators often treat environmental objectives as a constraint, rather than as a priority akin to water deliveries for cities and farms. Reservoir management becomes especially challenging during severe droughts when surface water supplies are scarce, and urban and agricultural demands conflict with water supplies needed to maintain healthy waterways and wetlands. In times of drought, most freshwater ecosystems suffer.

This blog post examines 2021 water year actions …

An Integrated Food, Energy, And Water Nexus, Human Well-Being, And Resilience (Few-Wise) Framework: New Mexico, Kamini Yadav, Hatim M. Geli, Andres F. Cibils, Michael Hayes, Alexander Fernald, James Peach, Mohammed N. Sawalhah, Vincent C. Tidwell, Lindsay E. Johnson, Ashraf J. Zaied, Melakeneh G. Gedefaw

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Interconnected food, energy, and water (FEW) nexus systems face many challenges to support human well-being (HWB) and maintain resilience, especially in arid and semiarid regions like New Mexico (NM), United States (US). Insufficient FEW resources, unstable economic growth due to fluctuations in prices of crude oil and natural gas, inequitable education and employment, and climate change are some of these challenges. Enhancing the resilience of such coupled socio-environmental systems depends on the efficient use of resources, improved understanding of the interlinkages across FEW system components, and adopting adaptable alternative management strategies. The goal of this study was to develop a …

Another Dangerous Fire Season Is Looming In The Western U.S., And The Drought-Stricken Region Is Headed For A Water Crisis, Mojtaba Sadegh, Amir Aghakouchak, John Abatzoglou

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Just about every indicator of drought is flashing red across the western U.S. after a dry winter and warm early spring. The snowpack is at less than half of normal in much of the region. Reservoirs are being drawn down, river levels are dropping and soils are drying out.

It’s only May, and states are already considering water use restrictions to make the supply last longer. California’s governor declared a drought emergency in 41 of 58 counties. In Utah, irrigation water providers are increasing fines for overuse. Some Idaho ranchers are talking about selling off livestock because rivers and reservoirs …

Informing Drought Mitigation Policy By Estimating The Value Of Water For Crop Production, Renata Rimsaite, Justin Gibson, Nicholas Brozovic

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Farmers use irrigation to mitigate drought risk and reduce yield uncertainty. A clear understanding of the monetary value of irrigation water and how it varies across time and space can help to inform farmers and policymakers about the potential impacts of water shortages and reduce uncertainty in decision making. Here, we introduce a framework for understanding the economic value of water used to produce corn in the central High Plains region during the period 2010–2017. Our analysis uses publicly available data for corn price and for irrigated and non-irrigated yields and incorporates irrigation requirement adjustments to account for the hydrologic …

Assessing And Mapping The Spatial-Temporal Change In Forest Phenology Of Arabuko-Sokoke Forest Using Moderate Resolution Satellite, Bailey Ytterdahl

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

This study focuses on coastal forests in Kenya that have some of the highest variety of flora and fauna, specifically Arabuko Sokoke Forest. Arabuko Sokoke Forest is located 110 miles north of Mombasa and 18 kilometers south of Malindi. This forest is known to be a worldwide biodiversity hotspot that is home to endemic and rare plants and animals. Within the Arabuko Sokoke Forest ecosystem, there are two main issues that challenge the conservation of the area. First, there has been more competition for land, primarily for agriculture and development. Second, there is an increase demand for forest resources due …

A Record Of Vapour Pressure Deficit Preserved In Wood And Soil Across Biomes, Adrian Broz, Gregory J. Retallack, Toby M. Maxwell, Lucas C.R. Silva

Biology Faculty Publications and Presentations

The drying power of air, or vapour pressure deficit (VPD), is an important measurement of potential plant stress and productivity. Estimates of VPD values of the past are integral for understanding the link between rising modern atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO₂) and global water balance. A geological record of VPD is needed for paleoclimate studies of past greenhouse spikes which attempt to constrain future climate, but at present there are few quantitative atmospheric moisture proxies that can be applied to fossil material. Here we show that VPD leaves a permanent record in the slope (S) of least-squares …

Effects Of Drought On Groundwater-Fed Lake Areas In The Nebraska Sand Hills, N. Shrestha, A. R. Mittelstet, T. E. Gilmore, V. Zlotnik, C. Neale

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Drought In The Breadbasket Of America And The Influence Of Oceanic Teleconnections, Grace Campbell

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

From 1980 to 2020, drought events accounted for 11.4% of the billion-dollar disasters in the United States (U.S.) yet caused the second highest total amount in damages at $236.6 billion. With the average cost of a drought being upwards of $9.5 billion, these natural disasters can create serious problems in agriculture. Drought is defined as a period of below average precipitation that causes damage to agriculture and water supply. Previous research has linked drought events in the U.S. Great Plains to oceanic teleconnections in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, indicating the influence of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), …

Ranchers’ Use Of Drought Contingency Plans In Protective Action Decision Making, Tonya Haigh, Michael Hayes, Jolene Smyth, Linda Stalker Prokopy, Charles A. Francis, Mark Burbach

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought contingency planning is an increasingly common tool in the ranchers’ climate adaptation toolboxes, but its effect on drought response has not yet been evaluated. We use cognitive models of protective action decision making and planning to explore the effects of having a drought plan on the use of drought early warning information and drought response (and timing). Results of a cross-sectional, probability-based survey of livestock producers affected by a 2016 flash-drought are used to describe the characteristics of operations with drought plans and provide evidence of whether having a plan predicts drought information use and response. While larger operations …