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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
A Multi-Step Approach To Modeling The 24-Hour Daily Profiles Of Electricity Load Using Daily Splines, Abdelmonaem Jornaz, V. A. Samaranayake
A Multi-Step Approach To Modeling The 24-Hour Daily Profiles Of Electricity Load Using Daily Splines, Abdelmonaem Jornaz, V. A. Samaranayake
Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works
Forecasting of real-time electricity load has been an important research topic over many years. Electricity load is driven by many factors, including economic conditions and weather. Furthermore, the demand for electricity varies with time, with different hours of the day and different days of the week having an effect on the load. This paper proposes a hybrid load-forecasting method that combines classical time series formulations with cubic splines to model electricity load. It is shown that this approach produces a model capable of making short-term forecasts with reasonable accuracy. In contrast to forecasting models that utilize a multitude of regressor …
A Comparison Of The Predictive Ability Of Logistic Regression And Time Series Analysis On Business Credit Data, Lauren Staples
A Comparison Of The Predictive Ability Of Logistic Regression And Time Series Analysis On Business Credit Data, Lauren Staples
Published and Grey Literature from PhD Candidates
The credit industry creates models to determine the risk of lending money to consumers as well as to commercial customers. These models are heavily regulated in the U.S. as well as in other countries. Model inputs must be explainable to customers as well as to regulators. Two such modeling approaches that are currently commonly used are logistic regression models and time series models. This paper steps through the preprocessing and model building of these two models on a large commercial data set and compares the predictive ability of these two methods. The two models achieved similar accuracy results: the logistic …
High Frequency Data: Modeling Durations Via The Acd And Log Acd Models, Lilian Cheung
High Frequency Data: Modeling Durations Via The Acd And Log Acd Models, Lilian Cheung
Honors Scholar Theses
This thesis proposes a method of finding initial parameter estimates in the Log ACD1 model for use in recursive estimation. The recursive estimating equations method is applied to the Log ACD1 model to find recursive estimates for the unknown parameters in the model. A literature review is provided on the ACD and Log ACD models, and on the theory of estimating equations. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the proposed method of finding initial parameter estimates is viable. The parameter estimation process is demonstrated by fitting an ACD model and a Log ACD model to a set of IBM …