Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

A Framework For Near-Real Time Monitoring Of Diversity Patterns Based On Indirect Remote Sensing, With An Application In The Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest, Andrea Paz, Thiago S. Silva, Ana C. Carnaval

Publications and Research

Monitoring biodiversity change is key to effective conservation policy. While it is difficult to establish in situ biodiversity monitoring programs at broad geographical scales, remote sensing advances allow for near-real time Earth observations that may help with this goal. We combine periodical and freely available remote sensing information describing temperature and precipitation with curated biological information from several groups of animals and plants in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest to design an indirect remote sensing framework that monitors potential loss and gain of biodiversity in near-real time. Using data from biological collections and information from repeated field inventories, we demonstrate that …

Finding Common Ground For Citizen Empowerment In The Smart City, John D. Kelleher, Aphra Kerr

Articles

Corporate smart city initiatives are just one example of the contemporary culture of surveillance. They rely on extensive information gathering systems and Big Data analysis to predict citizen behaviour and optimise city services. In this paper we argue that many smart city and social media technologies result in a paradox whereby digital inclusion for the purposes of service provision also results in marginalisation and disempowerment of citizens. Drawing upon insights garnered from a digital inclusion workshop conducted in the Galapagos islands, we propose that critically and creatively unpacking the computational techniques embedded in data services is needed as a first …

Stock Market Analysis: A Review And Taxonomy Of Prediction Techniques, Dev Shah, Haruna Isah, Farhana Zulkernine

Publications and Scholarship

Stock market prediction has always caught the attention of many analysts and researchers. Popular theories suggest that stock markets are essentially a random walk and it is a fool’s game to try and predict them. Predicting stock prices is a challenging problem in itself because of the number of variables which are involved. In the short term, the market behaves like a voting machine but in the longer term, it acts like a weighing machine and hence there is scope for predicting the market movements for a longer timeframe. Application of machine learning techniques and other algorithms for stock price …

Exploiting The Interdependency Of Land Use And Mobility For Urban Planning, Kasthuri Jayarajah, Andrew Tan, Archan Misra

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Urban planners and economists alike have strong interest in understanding the inter-dependency of land use and people flow. The two-pronged problem entails systematic modeling and understanding of how land use impacts crowd flow to an area and in turn, how the influx of people to an area (or lack thereof) can influence the viability of business entities in that area. With cities becoming increasingly sensor-rich, for example, digitized payments for public transportation and constant trajectory tracking of buses and taxis, understanding and modelling crowd flows at the city scale, as well as, at finer granularity such as at the neighborhood …

Infodemiology For Syndromic Surveillance Of Dengue And Typhoid Fever In The Philippines, Ma. Regina Justina E. Estuar, Kennedy E. Espina

Department of Information Systems & Computer Science Faculty Publications

Finding determinants of disease outbreaks before its occurrence is necessary in reducing its impact in populations. The supposed advantage of obtaining information brought by automated systems fall short because of the inability to access real-time data as well as interoperate fragmented systems, leading to longer transfer and processing of data. As such, this study presents the use of realtime latent data from social media, particularly from Twitter, to complement existing disease surveillance efforts. By being able to classify infodemiological (health-related) tweets, this study is able to produce a range of possible disease incidences of Dengue and Typhoid Fever within the …

Whom Should We Sense In 'Social Sensing' - Analyzing Which Users Work Best For Social Media Now-Casting, Jisun An, Ingmar Weber

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Given the ever increasing amount of publicly available social media data, there is growing interest in using online data to study and quantify phenomena in the offline 'real' world. As social media data can be obtained in near real-time and at low cost, it is often used for 'now-casting' indices such as levels of flu activity or unemployment. The term 'social sensing' is often used in this context to describe the idea that users act as 'sensors', publicly reporting their health status or job losses. Sensor activity during a time period is then typically aggregated in a 'one tweet, one …

Perspectivas Culturais Na Comunicação Climática (Cultural Perspectives On Climate Communication), Karen E. Pennesi

Anthropology Publications

Este artigo considera que a previsão climática deve ser interpretada dentro de contextos sociais, culturais e linguísticos. Dentro de uma perspectiva antropológica baseada em entrevistas, observações e um questionário, será investigado como mudanças no meio-ambiente são entendidas por diferentes indivíduos, e transformadas em previsões que são comunicadas a diversos públicos. A linguagem utilizada e a maneira como a previsão é comunicada depende da experiência e dos objetivos do previsor, enquanto que a interpretação e a avaliação da previsão por outros são influenciadas por seus diferentes objetivos, atitudes, conhecimento e práticas. Esta etnografia da comunicação enfatiza o processo da comunicação das …

Risk Factors For Physical Violence Against Partners In The U.S., K. Daniel O'Leary, Nathan L. Tintle, Evelyn Bromet

Faculty Work Comprehensive List

Objective: To examine unique and relative predictive values of demographic, social learning, developmental, psychopathology, and dyadic variables as risk factors for perpetration of intimate partner physical aggression in a national sample of married or cohabiting individuals. Method: Men (n = 798) and women (n = 770) were selected from the public use data file of the 2003 National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R) which used a multistage cluster sampling design. Results: Eight percent of women and 5% of men reported perpetrating physical aggression in the past year. Based on multivariable regression analyses, among men, the unique risk factors for perpetrating physical …

Exploring The Impact Of Knowledge And Social Environment On Influenza Prevention And Transmission In Midwestern United States High School Students, William L. Romine, Tanvi Banerjee, William S. Barrow, William R. Folk

Kno.e.sis Publications

We used data from a convenience sample of 410 Midwestern United States students from six secondary schools to develop parsimonious models for explaining and predicting precautions and illness related to influenza. Scores for knowledge and perceptions were obtained using two-parameter Item Response Theory (IRT) models. Relationships between outcome variables and predictors were verified using Pearson and Spearman correlations, and nested [student within school] fixed effects multinomial logistic regression models were specified from these using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC). Neural network models were then formulated as classifiers using 10-fold cross validation to predict precautions and illness. Perceived barriers against taking precautions …

Demographic Prediction Of Mobile User From Phone Usage, Shahram Mohrehkesh, Shuiwang Ji, Tamer Nadeem, Michele C. Weigle

Computer Science Faculty Publications

In this paper, we describe how we use the mobile phone usage of users to predict their demographic attributes. Using call log, visited GSM cells information, visited Bluetooth devices, visited Wireless LAN devices, accelerometer data, and so on, we predict the gender, age, marital status, job and number of people in household of users. The accuracy of developed classifiers for these classification problems ranges from 45-87% depending upon the particular classification problem.

The Limits To Prediction In Ecological Systems, Brian Beckage, Louis J. Gross, Stuart Kauffman

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Predicting the future trajectories of ecological systems is increasingly important as the magnitude of anthropogenic perturbation of the earth systems grows.We distinguish between two types of predictability: the intrinsic or theoretical predictability of a system and the realized predictability that is achieved using available models and parameterizations. We contend that there are strong limits on the intrinsic predictability of ecological systems that arise from inherent characteristics of biological systems. While the realized predictability of ecological systems can be limited by process and parameter misspecification or uncertainty, we argue that the intrinsic predictability of ecological systems is widely and strongly limited …

Prediction Of The Probability Of Large Fires In The Sydney Region Of South-Eastern Australia Using Components Of Fire Weather., R A. Bradstock, J S. Cohn, A M. Gill, M Bedward, C Lucas

Faculty of Science - Papers (Archive)

The probability of large-fire (>= 1000 ha) ignition days, in the Sydney region, was examined using historical records. Relative influences of the ambient and drought components of the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) on large fire ignition probability were explored using Bayesian logistic regression. The preferred models for two areas (Blue Mountains and Central Coast) were composed of the sum of FFDI (Drought Factor, DF = 1) (ambient component) and DF as predictors. Both drought and ambient weather positively affected the chance of large fire ignitions, with large fires more probable on the Central Coast than in the Blue …

Slides: Water Needs And Strategies For A Sustainable Future, Shaun Mcgrath

Shifting Baselines and New Meridians: Water, Resources, Landscapes, and the Transformation of the American West (Summer Conference, June 4-6)

Presenter: Shaun McGrath, Program Director, Western Governors’ Association

25 slides

The Long Time Scales Of Human-Caused Climate Warming: Further Challenges For The Global Policy Process, Jerry D. Mahlman

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

28 pages.

"Jerry D. Mahlman, Senior Research Fellow, National Center for Atmospheric Research"

"Presented at the Pew Center Workshop on The Timing of Climate Change Policies, The Westin Grand Hotel, Washington, DC, October 10-12, 2001"

"Cite As: Mahlman, J.D. 2001. The Long Time Scales of Human-Caused Climate Warming: Further Challenges for the Global Policy Process. Pew Center Workshop on the Timing of Climate Change Policies, October 10-12, Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Arlington, VA."

Subsidence Of Land Caused By Ground-Water Pumping, Thomas L. Holzer

Groundwater: Allocation, Development and Pollution (Summer Conference, June 6-9)

22 pages (includes illustration).

Contains references (pages 2-6).

Land Subsidence And Ground-Water Pumping: Outline, Thomas L. Holzer

Water Resources Allocation: Laws and Emerging Issues: A Short Course (Summer Conference, June 8-11)

10 pages.

Contains research sources.