Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Using The Wsr-88d To Forecast Downburst Winds At Cape Canaveral Air Station And The Kennedy Space Center (Ccas/Ksc), Gerald D. Sullivan Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

The 45 Weather Squadron is tasked with providing several convective wind warnings in support of the U. S. Space Program. The forecasters use a radar-based forecast technique to determine if a thunderstorm has the potential to produce a gust that meets warning criteria. This technique, the Echo Top/Vertically Integrated Liquid Wind Gust Potential (ET/VIL WGP), has not previously been evaluated for use in the Cape Canaveral Air Station and Kennedy Space Center (CCAS/KSC) locale. Additionally, there are two other radar-based forecast techniques that required evaluation for possible inclusion into the 45 WS forecast process. These are the Maximum Reflectivity / …

Improving Cape Canaveral's Next-Day Thunderstorm Forecasting Using A Meso-Eta Model-Based Index, John C. Crane

Theses and Dissertations

Reliable thunderstorm forecasts are essential to safety and resource protection at Cape Canaveral. Current methods of forecasting day-2 thunderstorms provide little improvement over forecasting by persistence alone and are therefore in need of replacement. This research focused on using the mesoscale eta model to develop an index for improved forecasting of day-2 thunderstorms. Logistic regression techniques were used to regress the occurrence of a thunderstorm at Cape Canaveral against day-2 forecast variables output, or derived, from the mesoscale eta model. Accuracy and bias scores were calculated for the forecasts made by the regression equations, and the forecast results were compared …

A Refinement And Cross-Validation Of The Special Sensor Microwave Imager (Ssm/I) Calibration-Validation (Cv) Brightness Temperature Algorithm, Mark R. Adair

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) currently uses an algorithm to calculate surface temperatures from microwave observations taken by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) aboard the orbiting platforms of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). This algorithm, called the Calibration-Validation (CV) algorithm, used multiple linear regression to calculate coefficients relating microwave brightness temperatures and land surface temperatures. Because the coefficients in this algorithm do not take into account the identity of the individual satellite, the question arose whether this assumption was valid. This thesis used multiple linear regression, stepwise linear regression, and qualitative regression on 3700 data sets from …

A Comparison Of Horizontal Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Flash Distance Using Weather Surveillance Radar And The Distance Between Successive Flashes Method, Christopher C. Cox

Theses and Dissertations

On April 29th, 1996 an airman servicing a C-130 aircraft on Huriburt AFB Florida was struck and killed by a lightning flash that traveled an estimated 7 to 10 miles from storms south of the airfield. Ten other workers were injured in the incident. The fatal flash occurred just 8 minutes after the base weather station allowed a lightning advisory to expire. The incident brought to question the adequacy of lightning advisory criteria. Very little research has been done on the horizontal distance that cloud-to-ground lightning flashes occurs from the center of a thunderstorm. This thesis used the WSR-88D method, …

A Validation Study Of Cloud Scene Simulation Model Temporal Performance, Glenn Kerr

Theses and Dissertations

Cloud Scene Simulation Model (CSSM) temporal performance was validated by comparing the cloud forcing signatures on observed radiometric time series with those derived from CSSM output for initial conditions similar to that for the observed data. Observed radiometric data was collected by a normal incidence pyraheliometer sensitive to wavelengths in the range .3mm to 3mm. Simulation radiometric time series data was derived by applying the following process to each case study. CSSM cloud liquid water content (CLWC) grids were converted to grids of slant path optical depth values by the Fast Map post processor to the CSSM. A ray tracing …

Predicting Launch Pad Winds At The Kennedy Space Center With A Neural Network Model, Steven J. Storch

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis uses neural networks to forecast winds at the Kennedy Space Center and the Cape Canaveral Air Station launch pads. Variables are developed from WINDS tower observations, surface and buoy observations, and an upper-air sounding. From these variables, a smaller set of predictive inputs is chosen using a signal-to-noise variable screening method. A neural network is then trained to forecast launch pad winds from the inputs. The network forecasts are compared to persistence, and peak wind predictions are found skillful compared to persistence. An ensemble modeling technique using Toth's and Kalnay's breeding of growing modes method is explored with …

Estimating The Height Of The Planetary Boundary Layer For Diffusion-Transport Models: A Four Algorithm Comparison, Robert L. Russ

Theses and Dissertations

Diffusion-Transport (D-T) modeling is a branch of numerical weather prediction concerned with eddy diffusion of particulate pollutant plumes and their transport by the wind. When conducting D-T modeling, establishing the height of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is crucial to defining the vertical bounds within which a plume can become thoroughly mixed. The PBL can be deduced from observations or model simulation. Three sounding analysis PBL algorithms were considered - the Potential Instability Mixing Depth (PIMIX), Potential Temperature (POTEMP), and Gradient Richardson Number (RICH) algorithms. A turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) based PBL algorithm was also evaluated. The purpose of this …

Three Dimensional Hydrodynamic-Sedimentation Modeling Study : Hampton Roads Crossing, Lower James River, Virginia, John D. Boon, Harry V. Wang, S. C. Kim, Albert Y. Kuo, G. M. Sisson

Reports

A three-dimensional hydrodynamic-sedimentation computer model, HYSED-3D, was used to evaluate the effect of bridge-tunnel infrastructure for a proposed highway crossing of Hampton Roads on the physical characteristics (tides, currents, circulation, salinity, and sedimentation) of the James River estuary in Virginia. Model-represented infrastructure included tunnel islands and bridges on pilings connecting the islands to interstate highways in Newport News, Hampton, Norfolk, and Portsmouth, Virginia. Combinations of these elements occur in each of three proposed crossing routes designated Alternative 1 (Hampton-Norfolk), Alternative 2 (Hampton-Norfolk, Norfolk-Portsmouth), and Alternative 9 (Newport News-Portsmouth-Norfolk). Simulation comparisons were made between the existing waterways and infrastructure in Hampton …

Crop Updates 1999 - Cereals, Len W. Broadbridge, Doug Abrecht, D. Bakker, Greg Hamilton, Cliff Spann, Doug Rowe, Peter Fisher, Jennifer Bignell, Matthew Braimbridge, Bill Bowden, Ross Brennan, Reg Lunt, Senthold Asseng, Cherie Rowles, Simon Bedbrook, Chris Gazey, Mike Bolland, Garren Knell, Lyn Abbott, Zed Rengel, Wayne Pluske, Erin Cahill, Bill Crabtree, Matthew Evans, Tim Nielsen, Jat Bhathal, Rob Loughman, D. Rasmussen, Roger Jones, Sean Kelly, Ian Riley, Sharyn Tayor, Vivien Vanstone, Dominie Wright, Debbie Thackray, Simon Mckirdy, George Yan, Robin Wilson, Iain Barclay, Robin Mclean, Dean Diepeveen, Bill Lambe, Wal Anderson, Brenda Shackley, Mechelle Owen, Peter Burgess, Ben Curtis, Mohammed A. Hamza, Jamie Henderson, Frank Boetel, Alfredo Impiglia, Frances Hoyle, Darshan Sharma, Pierre Fievez, Blakely Paynter, Glen Mcdonald, Kevin Young, Andrew Blake, Keith Devenish, Perry Dolling, Roy Latta, Lisa-Jane Blacklow, Chris Matthews, Angelo Loi, Brad Nutt, Rochelle Mcrobb, David Webb, Andrew Mcrobb, Clinton Revell, James Ridsdill-Smith, Celia Pavri, David Tennant, Darryl Mclements, Ross Thompson, Mike Ewing, Tim Woodburn, Paul Yeoh, James Fisher, Art Diggle, Mark Whitten, Andrew Rate, Paul Carlile, Ed Blanchard, Bevan Buirchell, Lorraine Osborne, Tress Walmsley, Terry Piper, Cameron Weeks, Michael Dodd, Amanda Falconer, Caroline Peek, Glenn Adam, Camray Gethin, Richard Guinness, Daniel Fels, Andrew Rintoul, Mal Lamond, Roger Tapp, Craig White

Crop Updates

This article covers sixty papers

FOREWORD

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

PLENARY PAPERS

1. Western Australia’s climate: trends and opportunities, Len W. Broadbridge, Director, Bureau of Meterorology

2. Managing seasonal variations in agriculture, Dr Doug Abrecht, Director, Dryland Research Institute, Merredin

CROP ESTABLISHMENT

3. Soil management to prevent waterlogging on duplex soils in the Great Southern, D. Bakker, Greg Hamilton, Cliff Spann and Doug Rowe, Agriculture Western Australia

4. The influence of no-till and press wheels on crop production for heavy soils, Peter Fisher, Jennifer Bignell, Matthew Braimbridge, Greg Hamilton, Agriculture

Western Australia

NUTRITION

5. Fertiliser nitrogen, applied late, needs …

Holocene Climate In Coastal Peru: Potential Implications For Climate Dynamics During The Hypsithermal Period, James D. Wright

University of Maine Office of Research Administration: Grant Reports

This pilot study will analyze stable isotopes in planktic foraminifera in sediment cores off the coast of Peru for the Holocene interval. In many regions of the world the early Holocene is believed to have been a time of warmer-than modern temperatures. Data derived from Peruvian middens give conflicting evidence as to whether this period was somewhat warmer or cooler than today. The foraminiferal data should provide a record of sea surface temperatures and seasonal upwelling along coastal Peru throughout the Holocene, including the period of human coastal settlement.

Announcements: February 1999

Drought Network News (1994-2001)

Contents:

International Symposium on High Altitude and Sensitive Ecological Environmental Geotechnology

5th International Symposium on Environmental Geotechnology and Global Sustainable Development

10th Global Warming International Conference & Expo (GW10)

New Book

Rainfall Climatology Of Jammu And Kashmir State, India, Badrul Hasan

Drought Network News (1994-2001)

We have written a number of articles on various aspects of weather characterization and forecast verification under temperate environments of Jammu and Kashmir (India). We have also touched on some of the approaches that might help in solving climatically triggered problems (Hasan and Kanth 1997). Fortunately, we were lucky enough to make significant progress in some (if not all) of the approaches. The present article focuses on an analysis of rainfall/ precipitation in this state of the Indian Union under different agroclimatic zones, with an update on forecast verification analysis of temperate Kashmir (India) during 1997–98.

India is classified into …

Using The Spi To Analyze Spatial And Temporal Patterns Of Drought In Turkey, Ali Umran Komuscu

Drought Network News (1994-2001)

Drought is a natural phenomenon that has significant economic, social, and environmental impacts. Drought differs from other natural hazards in that its onset and end are difficult to determine. It develops slowly, and its impacts may remain for years after termination of the event. No single definition of drought exists that applies to all circumstances, but most definitions of drought are based on an expression of deficiency of precipitation resulting in water shortage for some activity related to use of water (Wilhite and Glantz, 1985; Dracup et al., 1980). Water resources planners usually rely on quantitative indices to decide whether …

Heat Waves And Floods Across Asia: Was El Niño, Then La Niña The Cause?, R. H. Kripalani, Ashwini Kulkarni

Drought Network News (1994-2001)

Unprecedented heat wave conditions occurred during May–June 1998 across Asia. Unusually high temperatures were recorded in western India, Pakistan, eastern China, Japan, and Southeast Asia. Even the United States, western Africa, eastern Canada, and western Australia experienced the blistering heat spell.

Some reports blame people for the global warming. The world is warming because of the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, resulting in an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The 1998 heat wave prompted the United Nations Environment Programme to issue an urgent warning and a wakeup call to limit the emission of global warming gases. The …

Severe Droughts Becoming Recurrent, More Persistent In Mexico, Israel Velasco

Drought Network News (1994-2001)

During recent years, severe and extreme droughts in Mexico and their consequent water deficits have become more recurrent and persistent, according to historic records and the experiences of those who have lived through these events.

In Mexico, agriculture consumes more than 85% of the available water. When the available water is insufficient to satisfy agricultural requirements, impacts can be acute. In extreme cases, lack of water has caused severe economic, social, and environmental crises, and recovery from these crises has taken much time and money.

The regions that are most affected by drought have some common characteristics: they are the …

From The Director: February 1999, Donald A. Wilhite

Drought Network News (1994-2001)

Many of the readers of Drought Network News are familiar with the “hydro-illogical cycle” cartoon that I use frequently in presentations and publications. This illustration has been translated into many languages and serves as a constant reminder of the crisis management mentality often displayed in responding to drought emergencies and the proverbial “window of opportunity” following a drought when planning for the next event is of high priority. I hear comments routinely from government officials that recognize the need to plan, but they express hesitancy in moving forward now if water supply conditions are normal or above. The concern is …

Arizona Source Water Assessment Plan Final Draft, Arizona Department Of Environmental Quality

Publications (WR)

The safe drinking water amendments of 1996 placed a strong emphasis on the goal to establish a nationwide effort to protect drinking water sources. As part of that goal, the legislation provided for a preliminary assessment of drinking water sources and an inventory of surrounding adjacent land use (ALUs). This nationwide effort will result in the first comprehensive look at the nation's drinking water sources from an assessment perspective. One of the outcomes of this nationwide assessment will be information that public water systems (PWSs) can use to help determine appropriate monitoring frequencies and to protect their sources of drinking …

Survey Of Military Applications For Fourier Transform Infrared (Ftir) Spectroscopy, Robert G. Hauser

Theses and Dissertations

This paper surveyed four potential military uses for a Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) Spectrometer. A physical method to retrieve vertical atmospheric temperature profiles using a least-squares solution on atmospheric radiance observed at the surface in the 4.3-micrometer carbon dioxide absorption band was analyzed. The method was not successful. Weighting functions, calculated from the surface looking up, were a maximum at the surface, so no unique solution for temperature retrieval by height was determined. Observed atmospheric radiance measurements were compared with radiance calculated using the Moderate Resolution Transmittance Code (MODTRAN). Qualitative comparison showed spectral features of observed and calculated radiance plots …

Guide For Developing Integrated Aquatic Vegetation Management Plans In Oregon, Maribeth Gibbons, Mark Rosenkranz, Harry L. Gibbons, Mark Sytsma

Center for Lakes and Reservoirs Publications and Presentations

This manual focuses on controlling nuisance aquatic plants, occurring in Oregon lakes. To use this manual, it is necessary to distinguish between an aquatic plant problem, and a water quality enrichment problem that typically results in excessive algae production (See Box this page). The most serious type of aquatic plant problem is caused by invasion of a waterbody by a non-native species. Non-native weed invaders may flourish in suitable conditions and degrade habitat and other beneficial uses. The biology and ecology of weeds allows them to fluorish under a wide range of conditions. Nutrient enrichment is not a prerequisite for …

1999 Gloucester Point Station Tide Prediction Calendars, Virginia Institute Of Marine Science, David A. Evans

Miscellaneous

These calendars are produced monthly using David Evans' Tidecal.

Climatological Significance Of Δ18O In Precipitation And Ice Cores: A Case Study At The Head Of The Ürütnqi River, Tien Shan, China, Hou Shugui, Qin Dahe, Paul Andrew Mayewski, Yang Qinzhao, Ren Jiawen, Li Zhongqin, Xiao Cunde

Earth Science Faculty Scholarship

Stable-oxygen-isotope ratios (δ¹⁸O) collected from the headwaters of the Ürümqi river, Tien Shan, China, were used to test the relationship between δ¹⁸O temporal relationship is found between δ¹⁸O monthly averages which remove synoptic-scale influences such as changes in condensation level, condensation temperature and moisture sources (Yao and others, 1996). Linear fits as high as 0.95‰°C^-1 for precipitation events and 1.23‰°C^-1 for monthly averages are found. Although the δ¹⁸O (∼2 km from the precipitation sampling site) decreased dramatically compared to the precipitation samples , the ice-core records of annually averaged δ …

Analyzing Mean Transport Equations Of Turbulence And Linear Disturbances In Decaying Flows, W. D. Thacker, T. B. Gatski, C. E. Grosch

CCPO Publications

The decay of laminar disturbances and turbulence in mean shear-free flows is studied. In laminar flows, such disturbances are linear superpositions of modes governed by the Orr-Sommerfeld equation. In turbulent flows, disturbances are described through transport equations for representative mean quantities. The link between a description based on a deterministic evolution equation and a probability-based mean transport equation is established. Because an uncertainty in initial conditions exists in the laminar as well as the turbulent regime, a probability distribution must be defined even in the laminar case. Using this probability distribution, it is shown that the exponential decay of the …

An Iron-Based Ecosystem Model Of The Central Equatorial Pacific, Carrie L. Leonard, Charles R. Mcclain, Ragu Murtugudde, Eileen E. Hofmann, Lawrence W. Harding Jr.

CCPO Publications

The central and eastern equatorial Pacific region is characterized by lower than expected phytoplankton biomass and primary production given the relatively high ambient nitrate concentrations. These unusual conditions have spawned several field programs and laboratory experiments to determine why this high nitrate-low chlorophyll pattern persists in this region. To synthesize the results from these field programs, as well as providing additional evidence in support of the iron hypothesis, we developed a one-dimensional, nine-component ecosystem model of 0 degrees N 140 degrees W. The model components include two phytoplankton size fractions, two zooplankton size fractions, two detrital size fractions, dissolved iron, …

Frontogenesis In The North Pacific Oceanic Frontal Zones--A Numerical Simulation, Michael S. Dinniman, Michele M. Rienecker

CCPO Publications

A primitive equation model [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL's) MOM 2] with one degree horizontal resolution is used to simulate the seasonal cycle of frontogenesis in the subarctic frontal zone (SAFZ) and the subtropical frontal zone (STFZ) of the North Pacific Ocean. The SAFZ in the model contains deep (greater than 500 m in some places) regions with seasonally varying high gradients in temperature and salinity. The gradients generally weaken toward the east. The STFZ consists of a relatively shallow (less than 200 m in most places) region of high gradient in temperature that disappears in the summer/fall. The high …

Decadal Variabilities Of The Upper Layers Of The Subtropical North Atlantic: An Ocean Model Study, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Numerical simulations of the Atlantic Ocean during the period 1950 to 1989, using a sigma coordinate, free surface numerical model, show long-term variabilities in the upper ocean subtropical gyre similar to those obtained from observations. The simulations show how westward propagating planetary waves, originated in the eastern North Atlantic, affect interdecadal variabilities of ocean properties such as the Bermuda sea level, the Gulf Stream position and strength, and subsurface temperature anomalies in the western North Atlantic. Special attention is given to the dramatic sea level drop at Bermuda in the early 1970s, which is accompanied by cooling of subsurface layers …

A Two-Dimensional Analytic Tidal Model For A Narrow Estuary Of Arbitrary Lateral Depth Variation: The Intratidal Motion, Chunyan Li, Arnoldo Valle-Levinson

CCPO Publications

An innovative method is introduced to solve a two-dimensional, depth-averaged analytic model for narrow estuaries or tidal channels with arbitrary lateral depth variations. The solution is valid if the lateral variation of the amplitude of tidal elevation (\Delta a\) is small, i.e., \Delta a\ much less than a, where a is the amplitude of the tidal elevation. This assumption is supported by a 60-day observation of elevation in the James River Estuary using pressure sensors at both sides of a cross section of the estuary. The error introduced by the solution is of the order of \Delta a\/a, which has …

Circulation, Vol. 6, No. 2, Center For Coastal Physical Oceanography, Old Dominion University

CCPO Circulation

Winter 1999 issue of CCPO Circulation featuring article "Identifying Different Flow Constituents in Estuaries"

1999 Hampton Roads Station Tide Prediction Calendars, Virginia Institute Of Marine Science, David A. Evans

Miscellaneous

These calendars are produced monthly using David Evans' Tidecal.

1999 Wachapreague Station Tide Prediction Calendars, Virginia Institute Of Marine Science, David A. Evans

Miscellaneous

These calendars are produced monthly using David Evans' Tidecal.

Aquatic Vegetation In Irrigation Canals, Mark Sytsma, Michael Parker

Center for Lakes and Reservoirs Publications and Presentations

Preparation of this guidance manual for integrated aquatic vegetation management in irrigation canals was stimulated, in large part, by the accidental release of acrolein-treated irrigation water into Bear Creek in southern Oregon. The resulting fish kill brought into focus the need to examine the methods available for managing aquatic vegetation in flowing water. Furthermore, it demonstrated the need for technical assistance on aquatic vegetation management in Oregon. Vegetation management in flowing water is a difficult undertaking. The interconnectedness of natural and manmade water conveyance systems, the tenuous status of many aquatic species, and the necessity of water delivery for profitable …