Physical Sciences and Mathematics | Open Access Articles

Early Warnings For State Transitions, Caleb P. Roberts, Dirac Twidwell, Jessica L. Burnett, Victoria M. Donovan, Carissa L. Wonkka, Christine L. Bielski, Ahjond S. Garmestani, David G. Angeler, Tarsha Eason, Brady W. Allred, Matthew O. Jones, David E. Naugle, Shana M. Sundstrom, Craig R. Allen

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

New concepts have emerged in theoretical ecology with the intent to quantify complexities in ecological change that are unaccounted for in state-and-transition models and to provide applied ecologists with statistical early warning metrics able to predict and prevent state transitions. With its rich history of furthering ecological theory and its robust and broad-scale monitoring frameworks, the rangeland discipline is poised to empirically assess these newly proposed ideas while also serving as early adopters of novel statistical metrics that provide advanced warning of a pending shift to an alternative ecological regime. We review multivariate early warning and regime shift detection metrics, …

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Marine Protected Areas In Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction: Defining "Success" For Conservation And Management, Emily Suzanne Nocito

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

With growing attention to and use of marine protected areas [MPAs], there are an increasing number of policy goals ascribed to these area-based management tools [ABMT]. One expectation is that an MPA can increase system “resilience”, yet oftentimes resilience – including whether we are considering social, economic or ecological resilience – stays unspecified. In recent years, there has also been a specific focus on MPAs as tools to promote climate change resilient ocean systems. Through a meta-analysis of the scientific literature and an analysis of over one thousand three hundred voluntary commitments made at the United Nation Ocean Conference, this …

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Effects Of Warm Ocean Temperatures On Bull Kelp Forests In The Salish Sea, Braeden Schiltroth, Sherryl Bisgrove, Bill Heath

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference

Kelp beds are marine sanctuaries, providing some of the most productive ecosystems on the planet and serving as critical habitat and refuge for many species, including juvenile salmon. Rising ocean temperature associated with climate change is a major stressor contributing to declines of kelp forests worldwide. In the Salish Sea, we identified bull kelp (Nereocystis leutkeana) populations growing under two different temperature regimes. Since 2011, kelp growing in the central Strait of Georgia has been exposed to sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 15-21 °C in the summer months, which is 5-6 °C warmer than temperatures in the Strait of Juan …

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Lessons Learned: Tidal Marsh Restoration In A Dynamic Context Of Stress And Climate Change, Roger Nathan Fuller

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference

In the Stillaguamish estuary, tidal wetlands have been receding for decades as a result of both natural and anthropogenic changes. Despite current restoration efforts, monitoring suggests that rising stress from climate change impacts on summer flows, legacy stresses from the levee system, and increased plant mortality from avian and insect herbivores may interact to accelerate the rate of marsh loss. Lessons learned from a 2012 restoration project should inform adaptive management and future restoration projects. Post-restoration monitoring has revealed a pattern of interacting stresses at both the site and system scales that affects marsh productivity and resilience to climate change. …

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An Investigation Of Benthic Recovery And Climate Change Resilience In The Englishman River Estuary, Connie L. Miller Retzer, Thomas G. Reid, Peter K. Dekoning

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference

SNAPSHOT: A benthic monitoring program will be added in 2018 to the ongoing Englishman River Estuary recovery study, situated on the east coast of Vancouver Island. This will complement investigations which have been ongoing, prior to and following the removal of a berm during 2017. Changes in salinity patterns, flow regimes, channel morphology, elevation, sediment size, and vegetation distribution are being assessed and these variables will be used to map distinctive areas of the estuary. Benthic samples will be collected from representative areas and monitored over the long term. Relative and total abundance, species diversity, biomass, and various derivatives of …

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Enhancing Quantitative Approaches For Assessing Community Resilience, W. C. Chuang, A. Garmestani, T. N. Eason, T. L. Spanbauer, H. B. Fried-Peterson, C. P. Roberts, S. M. Sundstrom, J. L. Burnett, D. G. Angeler, B. C. Chaffin, L. Gunderson, D. Twidwell, C. R. Allen

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Scholars from many different intellectual disciplines have attempted to measure, estimate, or quantify resilience. However, there is growing concern that lack of clarity on the operationalization of the concept will limit its application. In this paper, we discuss the theory, research development and quantitative approaches in ecological and community resilience. Upon noting the lack of methods that quantify the complexities of the linked human and natural aspects of community resilience, we identify several promising approaches within the ecological resilience tradition that may be useful in filling these gaps. Further, we discuss the challenges for consolidating these approaches into a more …

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Tiered Approach To Resilience Assessment, Igor Linkov, Cate Fox-Lent, Laura Read, Craig R. Allen, James C. Arnott, Emanuele Bellini, Jon Coaffee, Marie-Valentine Florin, Kirk Hatfield, Iain Hyde, William Hynes, Aleksandar Jovanovic, Roger Kasperson, John Katzenberger, Patrick W. Keys, James H. Lambert, Richard Moss, Peter S. Murdoch, Jose Palma-Oliveira, Roger S. Pulwarty, Dale Sands, Edward A. Thomas, Mari R. Tye, David Woods

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three-tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience are still lacking. Our proposed framework consists of tiers by which analysts can select resilience assessment and decision support tools to inform associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of …

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The Distribution And Role Of Functional Abundance In Cross‐Scale Resilience, Shana M. Sundstrom, David G. Angeler, Chris Barichievy, Tarsha Eason, Ahjond Garmestani, Lance Gunderson, Melinda Knutson, Kirsty L. Nash, Trisha Spanbauer, Craig Stow, Craig R. Allen

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The cross-scale resilience model suggests that system-level ecological resilience emerges from the distribution of species’ functions within and across the spatial and temporal scales of a system. It has provided a quantitative method for calculating the resilience of a given system and so has been a valuable contribution to a largely qualitative field. As it is currently laid out, the model accounts for the spatial and temporal scales at which environmental resources and species are present and the functional roles species play but does not inform us about how much resource is present or how much function is provided. In …

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A Method To Detect Discontinuities In Census Data, Chris Barichievy, David G. Angeler, Tarsha Eason, Ahjond S. Garmestani, Kirsty L. Nash, Craig A. Stow, Shana Sundstrom, Craig R. Allen

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

The distribution of pattern across scales has predictive power in the analysis of complex systems. Discontinuity approaches remain a fruitful avenue of research in the quest for quantitative measures of resilience because discontinuity analysis provides an objective means of identifying scales in complex systems and facilitates delineation of hierarchical patterns in processes, structure, and resources. However, current discontinuity methods have been considered too subjective, too complicated and opaque, or have become computationally obsolete; given the ubiquity of discontinuities in ecological and other complex systems, a simple and transparent method for detection is needed. In this study, we present a method …

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A Framework For Tracing Social–Ecological Trajectories And Traps In Intensive Agricultural Landscapes, Daniel R. Uden, Craig R. Allen, Francisco Munoz-Arriola, Gengxin Ou, Nancy Shank

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Charting trajectories toward sustainable agricultural development is an important goal at the food–energy–water–ecosystem services (FEWES) nexus of agricultural landscapes. Social–ecological adaptation and transformation are two broad strategies for adjusting and resetting the trajectories of productive FEWES nexuses toward sustainable futures. In some cases, financial incentives, technological innovations, and/or subsidies associated with the short-term optimization of a small number of resources create and strengthen unsustainable feedbacks between social and ecological entities at the FEWES nexus. These feedbacks form the basis of rigidity traps, which impede adaptation and transformation by locking FEWES nexuses into unsustainable trajectories characterized by control, stability, and efficiency, …

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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Early Warnings For State Transitions, Caleb P. Roberts, Dirac Twidwell, Jessica L. Burnett, Victoria M. Donovan, Carissa L. Wonkka, Christine L. Bielski, Ahjond S. Garmestani, David G. Angeler, Tarsha Eason, Brady W. Allred, Matthew O. Jones, David E. Naugle, Shana M. Sundstrom, Craig R. Allen

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Marine Protected Areas In Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction: Defining "Success" For Conservation And Management, Emily Suzanne Nocito

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Effects Of Warm Ocean Temperatures On Bull Kelp Forests In The Salish Sea, Braeden Schiltroth, Sherryl Bisgrove, Bill Heath

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference

Lessons Learned: Tidal Marsh Restoration In A Dynamic Context Of Stress And Climate Change, Roger Nathan Fuller

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference

An Investigation Of Benthic Recovery And Climate Change Resilience In The Englishman River Estuary, Connie L. Miller Retzer, Thomas G. Reid, Peter K. Dekoning

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference

Enhancing Quantitative Approaches For Assessing Community Resilience, W. C. Chuang, A. Garmestani, T. N. Eason, T. L. Spanbauer, H. B. Fried-Peterson, C. P. Roberts, S. M. Sundstrom, J. L. Burnett, D. G. Angeler, B. C. Chaffin, L. Gunderson, D. Twidwell, C. R. Allen

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The Distribution And Role Of Functional Abundance In Cross‐Scale Resilience, Shana M. Sundstrom, David G. Angeler, Chris Barichievy, Tarsha Eason, Ahjond Garmestani, Lance Gunderson, Melinda Knutson, Kirsty L. Nash, Trisha Spanbauer, Craig Stow, Craig R. Allen

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

A Method To Detect Discontinuities In Census Data, Chris Barichievy, David G. Angeler, Tarsha Eason, Ahjond S. Garmestani, Kirsty L. Nash, Craig A. Stow, Shana Sundstrom, Craig R. Allen

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

A Framework For Tracing Social–Ecological Trajectories And Traps In Intensive Agricultural Landscapes, Daniel R. Uden, Craig R. Allen, Francisco Munoz-Arriola, Gengxin Ou, Nancy Shank

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications