Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Early Warnings For State Transitions, Caleb P. Roberts, Dirac Twidwell, Jessica L. Burnett, Victoria M. Donovan, Carissa L. Wonkka, Christine L. Bielski, Ahjond S. Garmestani, David G. Angeler, Tarsha Eason, Brady W. Allred, Matthew O. Jones, David E. Naugle, Shana M. Sundstrom, Craig R. Allen

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

New concepts have emerged in theoretical ecology with the intent to quantify complexities in ecological change that are unaccounted for in state-and-transition models and to provide applied ecologists with statistical early warning metrics able to predict and prevent state transitions. With its rich history of furthering ecological theory and its robust and broad-scale monitoring frameworks, the rangeland discipline is poised to empirically assess these newly proposed ideas while also serving as early adopters of novel statistical metrics that provide advanced warning of a pending shift to an alternative ecological regime. We review multivariate early warning and regime shift detection metrics, …

Enhancing Quantitative Approaches For Assessing Community Resilience, W. C. Chuang, A. Garmestani, T. N. Eason, T. L. Spanbauer, H. B. Fried-Peterson, C. P. Roberts, S. M. Sundstrom, J. L. Burnett, D. G. Angeler, B. C. Chaffin, L. Gunderson, D. Twidwell, C. R. Allen

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Scholars from many different intellectual disciplines have attempted to measure, estimate, or quantify resilience. However, there is growing concern that lack of clarity on the operationalization of the concept will limit its application. In this paper, we discuss the theory, research development and quantitative approaches in ecological and community resilience. Upon noting the lack of methods that quantify the complexities of the linked human and natural aspects of community resilience, we identify several promising approaches within the ecological resilience tradition that may be useful in filling these gaps. Further, we discuss the challenges for consolidating these approaches into a more …

Tiered Approach To Resilience Assessment, Igor Linkov, Cate Fox-Lent, Laura Read, Craig R. Allen, James C. Arnott, Emanuele Bellini, Jon Coaffee, Marie-Valentine Florin, Kirk Hatfield, Iain Hyde, William Hynes, Aleksandar Jovanovic, Roger Kasperson, John Katzenberger, Patrick W. Keys, James H. Lambert, Richard Moss, Peter S. Murdoch, Jose Palma-Oliveira, Roger S. Pulwarty, Dale Sands, Edward A. Thomas, Mari R. Tye, David Woods

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three-tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience are still lacking. Our proposed framework consists of tiers by which analysts can select resilience assessment and decision support tools to inform associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of …

The Distribution And Role Of Functional Abundance In Cross‐Scale Resilience, Shana M. Sundstrom, David G. Angeler, Chris Barichievy, Tarsha Eason, Ahjond Garmestani, Lance Gunderson, Melinda Knutson, Kirsty L. Nash, Trisha Spanbauer, Craig Stow, Craig R. Allen

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The cross-scale resilience model suggests that system-level ecological resilience emerges from the distribution of species’ functions within and across the spatial and temporal scales of a system. It has provided a quantitative method for calculating the resilience of a given system and so has been a valuable contribution to a largely qualitative field. As it is currently laid out, the model accounts for the spatial and temporal scales at which environmental resources and species are present and the functional roles species play but does not inform us about how much resource is present or how much function is provided. In …

Weathering Climate Change: Provisions For Climate Change Resiliency In Transboundary River Treaties, Emily Joan Zmak

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Climate change will be most apparent in alterations to the hydrologic system - shifts in movement, variations in extremes - thereby defining many resource disputes in the coming decades. Water is a boundaryless resource; as its hydrologic patterns shift within and without borders, so too will preexisting agreements on its use and allocation. The question for transboundary water agreements is: how can agreements both satisfy parties' needs and account for future uncertainties of climate-induced changes to their basins' hydrologic systems?

From examining literature and water agreements, this thesis develops a list of provisions identified as foundational to resiliency in transboundary …