Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Modeling An Infection Outbreak With Quarantine: The Sibkr Model, Mikenna Dew, Amanda Langosch, Theadora Baker-Wallerstein

Rose-Hulman Undergraduate Mathematics Journal

Influenza is a respiratory infection that places a substantial burden in the world population each year. In this project, we study and interpret a data set from a flu outbreak in a British boarding school in 1978 with mathematical modeling. First, we propose a generalization of the SIR model based on the quarantine measure in place and establish the long-time behavior of the model. By analyzing the model mathematically, we determine the analytic formulas of the basic reproduction number, the long-time limit of solutions, and the maximum number of infection population. Moreover, we estimate the parameters of the model based …

Machine Learning As A Tool For Early Detection: A Focus On Late-Stage Colorectal Cancer Across Socioeconomic Spectrums, Hadiza Galadima, Rexford Anson-Dwamena, Ashley Johnson, Ghalib Bello, Georges Adunlin, James Blando

Community & Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Purpose: To assess the efficacy of various machine learning (ML) algorithms in predicting late-stage colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnoses against the backdrop of socio-economic and regional healthcare disparities. Methods: An innovative theoretical framework was developed to integrate individual- and census tract-level social determinants of health (SDOH) with sociodemographic factors. A comparative analysis of the ML models was conducted using key performance metrics such as AUC-ROC to evaluate their predictive accuracy. Spatio-temporal analysis was used to identify disparities in late-stage CRC diagnosis probabilities. Results: Gradient boosting emerged as the superior model, with the top predictors for late-stage CRC diagnosis being anatomic site, …

Predictive Power Of Wastewater For Nowcasting Infectious Disease Transmission: A Retrospective Case Study Of Five Sewershed Areas In Louisville, Kentucky, Fayette Klaassen, Rochelle H. Holm, Ted Smith, Ted Cohen, Aruni Bhatnagar, Nicolas A. Menzies

Faculty Scholarship

Background: Epidemiological nowcasting traditionally relies on count surveillance data. The availability and quality of such count data may vary over time, limiting representation of true infections. Wastewater data correlates with traditional surveillance data and may provide additional value for nowcasting disease trends. Methods: We obtained SARS-CoV-2 case, death, wastewater, and serosurvey data for Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA), between August 2020 and March 2021, and parameterized an existing nowcasting model using combinations of these data. We assessed the predictive performance and variability at the sewershed level and compared the effects of adding or replacing wastewater data to case and death reports. …

Combat Covid-19 At National Level Using Risk Stratification With Appropriate Intervention, Xuan Jin, Kar Way Tan

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

In the national battle against COVID-19, harnessing population-level big data is imperative, enabling authorities to devise effective care policies, allocate healthcare resources efficiently, and enact targeted interventions. Singapore adopted the Home Recovery Programme (HRP) in September 2021, diverting low-risk COVID-19 patients to home care to ease hospital burdens amid high vaccination rates and mild symptoms. While a patient's suitability for HRP could be assessed using broad-based criteria, integrating machine learning (ML) model becomes invaluable for identifying high-risk patients prone to severe illness, facilitating early medical assessment. Most prior studies have traditionally depended on clinical and laboratory data, necessitating initial clinic …

Assessing Boil Water Notices As Health-Risk Communication: Risk Perceptions, Efficacy, And Compliance During Winter Storm Uri, Ashleigh M. Day, Sydney O'Shay, Khairul Islam, Matthew W. Seeger, Shawn P. Mcelmurry

Open Data at Wayne State

Winter Storm Uri was an extreme disaster that impacted much of the United States during February of 2021. Texas and Oklahoma were generally not prepared for such an event and experienced massive power grid failures. This led to cascading risks including water system disruptions and many boil water notices (BWNs). The breakdown of some communication channels and the inability to enact protective actions due to power outages, as well as travel limitations on public roads, complicated both dissemination and implementation. Under these conditions, a non-representative, cross-sectional, survey was collected to assess individuals experience BWNs and how perceived efficacy impacts compliance. …

The Threat Of Hospital Wastewater: An Evidence-Based Call To Action, Ann P. Nguyen

DNP Qualifying Manuscripts

Introduction: Hospital wastewater carries a unique composition of pollutants, a burden that includes high chemical and biological residuals. These pollutants are discharged into sewage treatment plants and natural environments where they contaminate human water sources and larger ecosystems. Water treatment plants are not designed to treat the high loads of biomedical waste and persistent organic compounds found in hospital wastewater and therefore pollutants survive in conventionally treated water. Evidence of contaminated soil, municipal wastewater, surface water, ground water, and even drinking water have been demonstrated in studies conducted around the world highlighting the ubiquity of the problem. Hospital effluent as …

The Compound Risk Of Heat And Covid-19 In New York City: Riskscapes, Physical And Social Factors, And Interventions, Janelle Knox-Hayes, Juan Camilo Osorio, Natasha Stamler, Maria Dombrov, Rose Winer, Mary Hannah Smith, Reginald Blake, Cynthia Rosenzweig

Publications and Research

Climate change is disrupting the fundamental conditions of human life and exacerbating existing inequity by placing further burdens on communities that are already vulnerable. Risk exposure varies by where people live and work. In this article, we examine the spatial overlap of the compound risks of COVID-19 and extreme heat in New York City. We assess the relationship between socio-demographic and natural, built and social environmental characteristics, and the spatial correspondence of COVID-19 daily case rates across three pandemic waves. We use these data to create a compound risk index combining heat, COVID-19, density and social vulnerability. Our findings demonstrate …

Not A Waste: Wastewater Surveillance To Enhance Public Health, Anna Gitter, Jeremiah Oghuan, Anuja Rajendra Godbole, Carlos A. Chavarria, Carlos Monserrat, Tao Hu, Yun Wang, Anthony W. Maresso, Blake M. Hanson, Kristina D. Mena, Fuqing Wu

Pharmacy Faculty Articles and Research

Domestic wastewater, when collected and evaluated appropriately, can provide valuable health-related information for a community. As a relatively unbiased and non-invasive approach, wastewater surveillance may complement current practices towards mitigating risks and protecting population health. Spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic, wastewater programs are now widely implemented to monitor viral infection trends in sewersheds and inform public health decision-making. This review summarizes recent developments in wastewater-based epidemiology for detecting and monitoring communicable infectious diseases, dissemination of antimicrobial resistance, and illicit drug consumption. Wastewater surveillance, a quickly advancing Frontier in environmental science, is becoming a new tool to enhance public health, improve …

The Shortfalls Of Vulnerability Indexes For Public Health Decision-Making In The Face Of Emergent Crises: The Case Of Covid-19 Vaccine Uptake In Virginia, Lydia Cleveland Sa, Erika Frydenlund

VMASC Publications

Equitable and effective vaccine uptake is a key issue in addressing COVID-19. To achieve this, we must comprehensively characterize the context-specific socio-behavioral and structural determinants of vaccine uptake. However, to quickly focus public health interventions, state agencies and planners often rely on already existing indexes of "vulnerability." Many such "vulnerability indexes" exist and become benchmarks for targeting interventions in wide ranging scenarios, but they vary considerably in the factors and themes that they cover. Some are even uncritical of the use of the word "vulnerable," which should take on different meanings in different contexts. The objective of this study is …

Defining County-Level Terrestrial Rabies Freedom Using The Us National Rabies Surveillance System: Surveillance Data Analysis, Amber Kunkel, Gabriella Veytsel, Sarah C. Bonaparte, Haillie Meek, Xiaoyue Ma, Amy J. Davis, Jesse Bonwitt, Ryan M. Wallace

USDA Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Background: Rabies is a deadly zoonotic disease with nearly 100% fatality rate. In the United States, rabies virus persists in wildlife reservoirs, with occasional spillover into humans and domestic animals. The distribution of reservoir hosts in US counties plays an important role in public health decision-making, including the recommendation of lifesaving postexposure prophylaxis upon suspected rabies exposures. Furthermore, in surveillance data, it is difficult to discern whether counties have no cases reported because rabies was not present or because counties have an unreported rabies presence. These epizootics are monitored by the National Rabies Surveillance System (NRSS), to which approximately 130 …

How To Analyze Parental Conversation Online: A Computational Stack For Studying Vaccine Hesitancy., Carter Willets Ward

Graduate College Dissertations and Theses

Despite national and international organizations such as the CDC and WHO recognizing the value of vaccines and their importance in addressing public health concerns, there has been a decline in coverage for even the most established vaccines over the past three years. The global COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to this decline via decreases in medical resource accessibility and an increase in vaccine hesitancy. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO had recognized vaccine hesitancy as one of the top ten threats to public health. In the present work, we introduce a background account of (1) vaccine hesitancy and (2) anti-vax activism, …

Medical Racism: Comparing Prenatal Care Across Races In The United States, Rubina Cheema

Student Research

Prenatal care describes any care a woman receives during her pregnancy. It is intended to keep both the mother and the child healthy and also to reduce the risk of complications during and after birth. This care is especially important for women with high-risk factors so that doctors and nurses are able to monitor their health and the health of their baby during the duration of their pregnancy. For prenatal care to be most effective, it is imperative to begin prenatal care within the first trimester of a woman's pregnancy. However, in the United States, medical racism creates a major …

The Detection Of Periodic Reemergence Events Of Sars-Cov-2 Delta Strain In Communities Dominated By Omicron, Claire E. Westcott, Kevin J. Sokoloski, Eric C. Rouchka, Julia H. Chariker, Rochelle H. Holm, Ray A. Yeager, Joseph B. Moore Iv, Erin M. Elliott, Daymond Talley, Aruni Bhatnagar

Faculty Scholarship

Despite entering an endemic phase, SARS-CoV-2 remains a significant burden to public health across the global community. Wastewater sampling has consistently proven utility to understanding SARS-CoV-2 prevalence trends and genetic variation as it represents a less biased assessment of the corresponding communities. Here, we report that ongoing monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 genetic variation in samples obtained from the wastewatersheds of the city of Louisville in Jefferson county Kentucky has revealed the periodic reemergence of the Delta strain in the presence of the presumed dominant Omicron strain. Unlike previous SARS-CoV-2 waves/emergence events, the Delta reemergence events were geographically restricted in the community …

Comparative Analysis Of All-Terrain Vehicles, Motorcycle And Automobile-Related Trauma In A Rural Border Community Of The Usa, Haissam S. Elzaim, Kristina Vatcheva, Annelyn Torres-Reveron, Gregery Pequeno, Monica Michelle Betancourt-Garcia

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Introduction: There is widespread use of all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) in the USA for both work-related and recreational activities. In this study, we aimed to determine the difference in injury severity, Glasgow Coma scales and length of stay between ATV-related injuries and injuries sustained from motorcycles (MOTOs) and automobiles (AUTOs).

Methods: We retrospectively analysed ATV, MOTO and AUTO injuries from a Level 2 Trauma Center between 01 January 2015 and 31 August 2020. Proportional odds regression analyses, as well as multivariable regression models, were used to analyse the data.

Results: There were significantly more male and paediatric patients that suffered ATV-related …

Wastewater-Informed Public Health Intervention Playbook

Sustain Magazine

As the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic quickly spread from country to country and continent to continent in 2020, governments and scientists needed a way to track COVID-19 through populations in order to position public health interventions in the most impactful locations. Having a decision-based risk framework may help to guide policy creation that could minimize or prevent possible outbreaks and surges of infection within communities. The University of Louisville in partnership with Louisville’s Department of Public Health and Wellness tested this strategy in 2021 and 2022. This Wastewater-Informed Public Health Intervention Playbook describes the decisions and actions of that academic and public …

Beyond The Covid-19 Pandemic, Havovi Joshi

Asian Management Insights

From the editor

How Community Participation In Water And Sanitation Interventions Impacts Human Health, Wash Infrastructure And Service Longevity In Low-Income And Middle-Income Countries: A Realist Review, Sarah Nelson, Dorothy Drabarek, Aaron Jenkins, Joel Negin, Seye Abimbola

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

Objective:

To understand how, and under what circumstances community participation in water and sanitation interventions impacts the availability of safe water and sanitation, a change in health status or behaviour and the longevity of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) resources and services.

Design:

Realist review.

Data sources:

PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus databases were used to identify papers from low-income and middle-income countries from 2010 to 2020.

Eligibility criteria for selecting studies:

Criteria were developed for papers to be included. The contribution of each paper was assessed based on its relevance and rigour (eg, can it contribute to context, …

Covid-19 One Year On: Security And Privacy Review Of Contact Tracing Mobile Apps, Wei Yang Ang, Lwin Khin Shar

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic caused 3.8 million deaths since December 2019. At the current vaccination pace, this global pandemic could persist for several years. Throughout the world, contact tracing (CT) apps were developed, which play a significant role in mitigating the spread of COVID-19. This work examines the current state of security and privacy landscape of mobile CT apps. Our work is the first attempt, to our knowledge, which provides a comprehensive analysis of 70 CT apps used worldwide as of year Q1 2021. Among other findings, we observed that 80% of them may have handled sensitive data without adequate …

Precision Public Health Campaign: Delivering Persuasive Messages To Relevant Segments Through Targeted Advertisements On Social Media, Jisun An, Haewoon Kwak, Hanya M. Qureshi, Ingmar Weber

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Although established marketing techniques have been applied to design more effective health campaigns, more often than not, the same message is broadcasted to large populations, irrespective of unique characteristics. As individual digital device use has increased, so have individual digital footprints, creating potential opportunities for targeted digital health interventions. We propose a novel precision public health campaign framework to structure and standardize the process of designing and delivering tailored health messages to target particular population segments using social media–targeted advertising tools. Our framework consists of five stages: defining a campaign goal, priority audience, and evaluation metrics; splitting the target audience …

Time Series Forecasting Of Covid-19 Deaths In Massachusetts, Andrew Disher

Honors Program Theses and Projects

The aim of this study was to use data provided by the Department of Public Health in the state of Massachusetts on its online dashboard to produce a time series model to accurately forecast the number of new confirmed deaths that have resulted from the spread of CoViD-19. Multiple different time series models were created, which can be classified as either an Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model or a Regression Model with ARIMA Errors. Two ARIMA models were created to provide a baseline forecasting performance for comparison with the Regression Model with ARIMA Errors, which used the number of …

Mathematical Models Of Covid-19, Kate Faria

Honors Program Theses and Projects

For more than a year, the COVID-19 pandemic has been a major public health issue, affecting the lives of most people around the world. With both people’s health and the economy at great risks, governments rushed to control the spread of the virus. Containment measures were heavily enforced worldwide until a vaccine was developed and distributed. Although researchers today know more about the characteristics of the virus, a lot of work still needs to be done in order to completely remove the disease from the population. However, this is true for most of the infectious diseases in existence, including Influenza, …

Randomised Trials At The Level Of The Individual, Jay J H. Park, Nathan Ford, Denis Xavier, Per Ashorn, Rebecca F. Grais, Zulfiqar Ahmed Bhutta, Herman Goossens, Kristian Thorlund, Maria Eugenia Socias, Edward J. Mills

Centre of Excellence in Women and Child Health

In global health research, short-term, small-scale clinical trials with fixed, two-arm trial designs that generally do not allow for major changes throughout the trial are the most common study design. Building on the introductory paper of this Series, this paper discusses data-driven approaches to clinical trial research across several adaptive trial designs, as well as the master protocol framework that can help to harmonise clinical trial research efforts in global health research. We provide a general framework for more efficient trial research, and we discuss the importance of considering different study designs in the planning stage with statistical simulations. We …

The Role And Challenges Of Cluster Randomised Trials For Global Health, Louis Dron, Monica Taljaard, Yin Bun Cheung, Rebecca Grais, Nathan Ford, Kristian Thorlund, Fyezah Jehan, Etheldreda Nakimuli-Mpungu, Denis Xavier, Zulfiqar Ahmed Bhutta, Jay J H. Park, Edward J. Mills

Department of Paediatrics and Child Health

Evaluating whether an intervention works when trialled in groups of individuals can pose complex challenges for clinical research. Cluster randomised controlled trials involve the random allocation of groups or clusters of individuals to receive an intervention, and they are commonly used in global health research. In this paper, we describe the potential reasons for the increasing popularity of cluster trials in low-income and middle-income countries. We also draw on key areas of global health research for an assessment of common trial planning practices, and we address their methodological shortcomings and pitfalls. Lastly, we discuss alternative approaches for population-level intervention trials …

The Role Of Vegetative Cover In Enhancing Resilience To Climate Change And Improving Public Health, Anastasia D. Ivanova

Masters Theses

Changing temperature and precipitation patterns are causing degraded soil, water, and air quality which is negatively affecting the safety and health of people, and the productivity of urban and rural communities. However, research shows that implementing urban forests and cover crops into urban and rural landscapes, respectively, can mitigate these effects by providing ecosystem services. As extreme precipitation and heat events continue to intensify, there is a need for comprehensively assessing these ecosystem services under changing climates and for this information to be easily accessible by communities for rapid land-use decision making. Therefore, I investigated the role of urban forests …

Modes Of Transmission Of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus-2 (Sars-Cov-2) And Factors Influencing On The Airborne Transmission: A Review, Mahdieh Delikhoon, Marcelo I. Guzman, Ramin Nabizadeh, Abbas Norouzian Baghani

Chemistry Faculty Publications

The multiple modes of SARS-CoV-2 transmission including airborne, droplet, contact, and fecal–oral transmissions that cause coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) contribute to a public threat to the lives of people worldwide. Herein, different databases are reviewed to evaluate modes of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and study the effects of negative pressure ventilation, air conditioning system, and related protection approaches of this virus. Droplet transmission was commonly reported to occur in particles with diameter >5 µm that can quickly settle gravitationally on surfaces (1–2 m). Instead, fine and ultrafine particles (airborne transmission) can stay suspended for an extended period of time (≥2 h) …

Matters Of Biocybersecurity With Consideration To Propaganda Outlets And Biological Agents, Xavier-Lewis Palmer, Ernestine Powell, Lucas Potter, Thaddeus Eze (Ed.), Lee Speakman (Ed.), Cyril Onwubiko (Ed.)

Electrical & Computer Engineering Faculty Publications

The modern era holds vast modalities in human data utilization. Within Biocybersecurity (BCS), categories of biological information, especially medical information transmitted online, can be viewed as pathways to destabilize organizations. Therefore, analysis of how the public, along with medical providers, process such data, and the methods by which false information, particularly propaganda, can be used to upset the flow of verified information to populations of medical professionals, is important for maintenance of public health. Herein, we discuss some interplay of BCS within the scope of propaganda and considerations for navigating the field.

Surveys For Ticks On Wildlife Hosts And In The Environment At Asian Longhorned Tick (Haemaphysalis Longicornis)-Positive Sites In Virginia And New Jersey, 2018, Seth A. White, Sarah N. Bevins, Mark G. Ruder, David Shaw, Stacey L. Vigil, Adam Randall, Thomas J. Deliberto, Kristen Dominguez, Alec T. Thompson, James W. Mertins, Jeffrey T. Alfred, Michael J. Yabsley

USDA Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Haemaphysalis longicornis, the Asian longhorned tick (ALT), is native to eastern Asia, but it has become invasive in several countries, including Australia, New Zealand and recently in the eastern United States (US). To identify wild mammal and avian host species in the US, we conducted active wildlife surveillance in two states with known ALT infestations (Virginia and New Jersey). In addition, we conducted environmental surveys in both states. These surveillance efforts resulted in detection of 51 ALTinfested individuals from seven wildlife species, including raccoon (Procyon lotor), Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana), red fox (Vulpes vulpes …

Data-Fusion For Epidemiological Analysis Of Covid-19 Variants In Uae, Anoud Bani-Hani, Anaïs Lavorel, Newel Bessadet

All Works

Since December 2019, a new pandemic has appeared causing a considerable negative global impact. The SARS-CoV-2 first emerged from China and transformed to a global pandemic within a short time. The virus was further observed to be spreading rapidly and mutating at a fast pace, with over 5,775 distinct variations of the virus observed globally (at the time of submitting this paper). Extensive research has been ongoing worldwide in order to get a better understanding of its behaviour, influence and more importantly, ways for reducing its impact. Data analytics has been playing a pivotal role in this research to obtain …

Coal Energy And Environmental Impacts: Introduction, Luis F. O. Silva, Amy L. Wolfe

Faculty, Staff, and Affiliated Publications--KGS

No abstract provided.

The Future Environmental And Health Impacts Of Coal, Robert B. Finkelman, Amy L. Wolfe, Michael S. Hendryx

Faculty, Staff, and Affiliated Publications--KGS

In the United States, coal consumption in the last 12 years has declined from 1,045,140 million short tons in 2007 to 539,420 million short tons in 2019, a decrease of almost 50%. During that period the number of electric power coal generators has declined from 1,470 to 738 accounting for 21% of capacity. An even more dramatic decrease in coal use has occurred in Western Europe. This significant reduction in coal use and the concomitant closure of coal mines and coal-burning power plants will result in substantially cleaner air, reductions in respiratory problems such as asthma, less heart disease, fewer …