Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Development Of A Decision Support System Webtool For Historic And Future Low Flow Estimation In The Northeast United States With Applications Of Machine Learning For Advancing Physical And Statistical Methodologies, Andrew F. Delsanto

Doctoral Dissertations

Droughts are a global challenge and anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme low flow events. A major challenge for resource managers is how best to incorporate future climate change projections into low flow event estimations, especially in ungaged basins. Using both physically based hydrology models and statistical models, this dissertation contributes novel methodologies to three key challenges associated with 7-day, 10-year low flow (7Q10) estimation in the northeast United States. Chapter 2 builds upon statistically based 7Q10 estimation in ungaged basins by comparing multiple machine learning algorithms to classical statistical methodologies. This chapter’s …

Using Remote Sensing To Determine Riparian Resilience In Beaver Dammed Versus Un-Dammed Corridors Following Whiplash Weather, Sophie Charlotte Valérie Aubry

Master of Science in Environmental Sciences and Management Projects

Beaver complexes slow and store water allowing for riparian growth which in turn fosters biodiversity, retains carbon, and enhances resistance to fires and drought. Given the benefits associated with beaver complexes and the potential they have for climate mitigation, California hopes to reintroduce beavers and restore their habitat throughout the state. However, the impact of high peak flow events on beaver complexes and their adjacent riparian corridors is less understood and requires more documentation at various spatial scales. To better understand the potential beavers may have as climate change mitigators it is important to understand beaver complex resiliency following a …

Evaluating Snow And Ice Cover In Tierra Del Fuego, Argentina, Zoe Pitman

Geosciences Undergraduate Honors Theses

Evaluating changes in snow and ice cover is an important field for studying climate change and its impacts. This evaluation is commonly done using remote sensing because of its ability to evaluate large areas. The purpose of this study is to determine the reliability of one remote sensing technology, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), by comparing it to in-situ snow and climate data from the weather station at the Austral Center for Scientific Research (CADIC). Data was converted from daily to monthly averages and was sorted into a series of graphs to compare the two data sets. Correlations were …

Characterization Of Municipal Water Sources For The Mexico-Lerma-Cutzamala Basin Region, Ian F. Hirons

International Development, Community and Environment (IDCE)

The Mexico and Toluca Valleys in central Mexico are part of one of the most heavily populated megalopolises in the western hemisphere where consistent access to safe, affordable, and quality water sources figures to be a decisive challenge in the era of climate change. This professional project report compiles a range of statistics and information about the vital liquid for 29 municipalities located in and around the Mexico City and Toluca areas. This contribution is derived from a broader team research endeavor that seeks to gauge the impacts and adaptive processes to climate change within those regions. By doing so, …

Changing Snowmelt Conditions In The Western Canadian Arctic, Matthew Y. T. Tsui

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Multidecadal Changes in Spring Snowmelt in the Western Canadian Arctic

This study investigates the changes in key aspects of snowmelt in the western Canadian Arctic. Specifically, we will look at changes in the onset of snowmelt and the duration of snowmelt between 1999 and 2019, and extended air temperature between 1957 and 2019. In addition, we will look at changes in eight meteorological variables during the melt period. It was found that the onset of snowmelt occurred 14 days earlier, while the melt period ends 20 days earlier than 20 years ago. As a result, the duration of melt period …

Fluvial Geomorphic And Hydrologic Evolution And Climate Change Resilience In Young Volcanic Landscapes: Rhyolite Plateau And Lamar Valley, Yellowstone National Park, Benjamin Newell Burnett

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

Quaternary volcanism associated with the last caldera cycle in Yellowstone National Park included emplacement of ash-flow tuffs, massive rhyolite flows ranging from 79 to 484 ka, and valley-filling basalts. This study examines (1) the evolution of spring hydrology with flow age on the Rhyolite Plateau, (2) initial development and evolution of stream networks on the rhyolite flows, and (3) the impact of the 630 ka caldera formation and volcanic flow emplacement on Lamar Valley incision rates.

Integrated stream networks formed within 79 kyr on the Rhyolite Plateau. Incision is focused on steep flow margins and knickpoints and is dependent on …

Estimating Adaptation To Climate Change In Groundwater Irrigation, James Keeler

Department of Agricultural Economics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Understanding the adaptive capacity of irrigated agriculture, including to what extent producers adjust irrigation choices along the intensive and extensive margins, is vital to the development of accurate and holistic estimates of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production and the sustainability of water-related ecosystem services. This thesis proposes and implements a natural experiment using statistical matching methods to estimate how producers adjust groundwater extraction, irrigated crop acreage, and irrigation technology in response to long-term changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration. Results from groundwater irrigated fields in Kansas suggest that intensive and extensive margin water use adaptations are generally limited …

Modeling Climate Change Impacts On Water Balance Components Of The Mackinaw River Watershed, Central Illinois, Joseph Honings

Theses and Dissertations

Understanding the response of water cycle dynamics to climate change and human activity is essential for best management of water resources. This study used the USDA Soil-Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to measure and predict major water balance variables including stream discharge, potential aquifer recharge, and surface storage in a small-scale watershed (~2,930 km²) in Central Illinois. The watershed is predominantly tile-drained agricultural land, which controls the nutrient dynamics and hydrology. Two reservoirs, Evergreen Lake and Lake Bloomington, and the Mahomet Aquifer in the watershed are used for public water supply. The subject watershed has been very sensitive to recent droughts, …

Methylmercury Production In Two Northern Fen Peatlands, Mikhail J. Mack

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Northern peatlands provide conditions favourable for sulphate reducing bacteria, microorganisms responsible for producing methylmercury, an aquatic pollutant. An expected climate driven shift from moss- to sedge-dominance may alter mercury biogeochemistry. Observations from a moss-dominated poor fen and sedge-dominated intermediate fen were used to compare methylmercury to assess if contrasting plant communities, nutrients status and/or hydrologic regime control production. Chapter 2 compared porewater methylmercury and ancillary chemistry across two Northern Ontario fens. The lower water table, greater dissolved organic carbon, and lower pH in the poor fen resulted in 3.1 times greater methylmercury. Chapter 3, riparian zones in intermediate fen were …

Climate Change Adaptation For Southern California Groundwater Managers: A Case Study Of The Six Basins Aquifer, Frank Lyles

Pomona Senior Theses

Groundwater has been very important to the economic development of Southern California, and will continue to be a crucial resource in the 21st century. However, Climate Change threatens to disrupt many of the physical and economic processes that control the flow of water in and out of aquifers. One groundwater manager, the Six Basins Watermaster in eastern Los Angeles and western San Bernardino Counties, has developed a long-term planning document called the Strategic Plan that mostly fails to address the implications of Climate Change, especially for local water supplies. This thesis presents an in-depth analysis of the Six Basin Watermaster’s …

Adaptation To Climate Change Via Insurance And Financial Incentives, Eric R. Holley

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Catastrophic climatic events have accounted for 72% of global insurance claims and totaled ~$1 trillion from 1980 to 2012. Costs are driven by socio-economic developments and an increased frequency and severity of climatic disasters in which climate change may have been a contributing factor. Climate change is projected to become a more prominent driver of these changes in the decades ahead. Government policies to reduce systemic risk have been the predominant approach for multi-level mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The analysis presented here shows how forceful and effective market-based approaches for adaptation and mitigation to climate change already operate …

Synthesis Of Satellite Microwave Observations For Monitoring Global Land-Atmosphere Co2 Exchange, Lucas Alan Jones

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

This dissertation describes the estimation, error quantification, and incorporation of land surface information from microwave satellite remote sensing for modeling global ecosystem land-atmosphere net CO₂ exchange. Retrieval algorithms were developed for estimating soil moisture, surface water, surface temperature, and vegetation phenology from microwave imagery timeseries. Soil moisture retrievals were merged with model-based soil moisture estimates and incorporated into a light-use efficiency model for vegetation productivity coupled to a soil decomposition model. Results, including state and uncertainty estimates, were evaluated with a global eddy covariance flux tower network and other independent global model- and remote-sensing based products.

Climate Impact On Groundwater Flow Processes In The Cedar Creek Watershed And Cedarburg Bog, Jackson Graham

Theses and Dissertations

A local-scale groundwater-flow model of the Cedar Creek Watershed and Cedarburg Bog area was constructed to determine the effects of future changes in temperature and precipitation on water resources. The Cedar Creek Watershed is a 330 km2 sub-basin of the Milwaukee River Watershed located about 30 km north of Milwaukee. The importance of this watershed lies in its location at the sub-continental divide separating the Mississippi River Basin from the Great Lakes Basin. The coupled steady-state and transient flow models incorporate interaction between surface water features and groundwater-surface water interactions. The 4 layer model simulates the influence of recharge on …

The Gravity Environment Of Zhouqu Debris Flow Of August 2010 And Its Implication For Future Recurrence, Diandong Ren, Lance M. Leslie, Xinyi Shen, Yang Hong, Qingyun Duan, Rezaul Mahmood, Yun Li, Gang Huang, Weidong Guo, Mervyn J. Lynch

HPRCC Personnel Publications

This study investigates the geological background of the August 7-8, 2010 Zhouqu debris flows in the northwestern Chinese province of Gansu, and possible future occurrence of such hazards in the peri-Tibetan Plateau (TP) regions. Debris flows are a more predictable type of landslide because of its strong correlation with extreme precipitation. However, two factors affecting the frequency and magnitude of debris flows: very fine scale precipitation and degree of fracture of bedrock, both defy direct observations. Annual mean Net Primary production (NPP) is used as a surrogate for regional precipitation with patchiness filtered out, and gravity satellite measured regional mass …

Dendrochronological Reconstruction Of Fire, Bogus Basin Area Boise National Forest, Amy L. Cutter

Student Research Initiative

Since people have settled along the Boise Front, there have been very few documented fire disturbances. This is likely an outcome of fire suppression policies. There is evidence, visible as scars on living trees, that the old growth ponderosa pines located on the East Side Trail in the Boise National Forest have withstood multiple fires. Samples were collected by using a chainsaw to remove small, partial cross-sections from several trees. The Boise Front master chronology was used to accurately cross-date the fire-scarred samples using COFECHA. Analysis of the samples revealed ten fire events ranging from 1709 to 1889. The fire …

Water Demand And Allocation In The Mara River Basin, Kenya/Tanzania In The Face Of Land Use Dynamics And Climate Variability, Shimelis B. Dessu

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The Mara River Basin (MRB) is endowed with pristine biodiversity, socio-cultural heritage and natural resources. The purpose of my study is to develop and apply an integrated water resource allocation framework for the MRB based on the hydrological processes, water demand and economic factors. The basin was partitioned into twelve sub-basins and the rainfall runoff processes was modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) after satisfactory Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.68 for calibration and 0.43 for validation at Mara Mines station. The impact and uncertainty of climate change on the hydrology of the MRB was assessed using SWAT and …

Assessment Of Climate Change Effect On Water Harvesting Structures In Rainfed Regions: Geospatial Data Mining Approach, Sreedhar Nallan, Leisa Armstrong

Research outputs 2012

Advances in the Information and Technologies (ICT) may assist researchers in the assessment of watershed development programmes by developing better visualization understanding of their impacts. GIS based research studies utilizing remote sensing images can facilitate in identifying the potential zones for watershed development and enable improved ground water resources. Effective watershed management is dependent on a number of factors such as demography, climate, soil, land use and topography and these are affected by changing climatic conditions. For example, changes in rainfall intensity and volume in rain fed areas can influence the effectiveness of the placement of watershed structures. Existing methods …

Model Based Assessment Of Potential Impacts Of Climate Change On The Flow Of The Main Headwaters Of The Nile River: Equatorial Lakes Region And Blue Nile Basins, Fisseha G. Berhane

Master's Theses

Berhane Fisseha. Model based assessment of potential impacts of climate change on the flow of the main headwaters of the Nile River: Equatorial Lakes Region and Blue Nile basins (Under the direction of Dr. Richard Anyah).

Spatially and temporally detailed assessment of the hydrologic processes of the main sources of the Nile River headwaters (Blue Nile basin and Equatorial Lakes Region) is vital for basin-wide scale management to cope with the pressing water problems due to burgeoning populations, a growing demand for electricity, irrigation for food production and possible climate change.

The main objectives of this study were to use …

Late 20th Century Hydrologic Change In Western North America: Regional Impacts And The Role Of Climate, Shaleen Jain

University of Maine Office of Research Administration: Grant Reports

Hydroclimatic variations and change directly impact the freshwater supplies in western North America. Streamflow in this region has shown increased variability of annual flow volumes and increasing synchroneity in the largest basins in the west towards the end of last century. As land-use change seems to play a lesser role, the PI will study the sensitivity of the western North American winter precipitation and related streamflow to El Nino-Southern Oscillation variations. The PI will use observations and multi-model ensemble integrations to study the decadal variations. The broader impact of this project will be an increase of the scientific knowledge required …

State Of The Antarctic And Southern Ocean Climate System, Paul Andrew Mayewski, M. P. Meredith, C. P. Summerhayes, J. Turner, A. Worby, P. J. Barrett, G. Casassa, Nancy Bertler, T. Bracegirdle, A. C. Naveira Garabato, D. Bromwich, H. Campbell, Gordon S. Hamilton, W. B. Lyons, Kirk A. Maasch, S. Aoki, C. Xiao, Tas Van Ommen

Earth Science Faculty Scholarship

This paper reviews developments in our understanding of the state of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate and its relation to the global climate system over the last few millennia. Climate over this and earlier periods has not been stable, as evidenced by the occurrence of abrupt changes in atmospheric circulation and temperature recorded in Antarctic ice core proxies for past climate. Two of the most prominent abrupt climate change events are characterized by intensification of the circumpolar westerlies (also known as the Southern Annular Mode) between ∼6000 and 5000 years ago and since 1200–1000 years ago. Following the last …

Ice Core Record Of Rising Lead Pollution In The North Pacific Atmosphere, E. Osterberg, Paul Andrew Mayewski, Karl J. Kreutz, D. Fisher, Michael Handley, Sharon Sneed, C. Zdanowicz, J. Zheng, M. Demuth, M. Waskiewicz, J. Bourgeois

Earth Science Faculty Scholarship

A high-resolution, 8000 year-long ice core record from the Mt. Logan summit plateau (5300 m asl) reveals the initiation of trans-Pacific lead (Pb) pollution by ca. 1730, and a >10-fold increase in Pb concentration (1981–1998 mean = 68.9 ng/l) above natural background (5.6 ng/l) attributed to rising anthropogenic Pb emissions from Asia. The largest rise in North Pacific Pb pollution from 1970–1998 (end of record) is contemporaneous with a decrease in Eurasian and North American Pb pollution as documented in ice core records from Greenland, Devon Island, and the European Alps. The distinct Pb pollution history in the North Pacific …

Snow Chemistry Across Antarctica, Nancy Bertler, Paul Andrew Mayewski, Alberto Aristarain, P. Barrett, S. Becagli, Ronaldo Torma Bernardo, Xiao Cunde, M. Curran, Qin Dahe, Daniel Dixon, Francisco Adolfo Ferron, H. Fischer, Markus Frey, M. Frezzotti, F. Fundel, Christophe Genthon, R. Gragani, Gordon Hamilton, M. Handley, Sungmin Hong, E. Isaksson, Ren Jiawen, Kokichi Kamiyama, Satoru Kanamori, Eija Karkas, L. Karlöf, S. Kaspari, K. Kreutz, A. Kurbatov, E. Meyerson, Hideaki Motoyama, R. Mulvaney, Zhang Mingjun, H. Oerter, E. Osterberg, M. Proposito, A. Pyne, U. Ruth, Jefferson Cardia Simoes, B. Smith, S. Sneed, Kimmo Teinila, F. Traufetter, R. Udisti, Aki Virkkula, Okitsugu Watanabe, B. Williamson, E. Wolff, Li Zhongqin

Earth Science Faculty Scholarship

An updated compilation of published and new data of major-ion (Ca, Cl, K, Mg, Na, NO₃, SO₄) and methylsulfonate (MS) concentrations in snow from 520 Antarctic sites is provided by the national ITASE (International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition) programmes of Australia, Brazil, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Norway, the United Kingdom, the United States and the national Antarctic programme of Finland. The comparison shows that snow chemistry concentrations vary by up to four orders of magnitude across Antarctica and exhibit distinct geographical patterns. The Antarctic-wide comparison of glaciochemical records provides a unique opportunity to improve …

The International Trans-Arctic Scientific Expedition (Itase): An Overview, Paul Andrew Mayewski, Massimo Frezzotti, Nancy Bertler, Tas Van Ommen, Gordon S. Hamilton, Tim H. Jacka, Brian Welch, Markus Frey, Dahe Qin, Jiawen Ren, Jefferson Simões, Michel Fily, Hans Oerter, Fumihiko Nishio, Elisabeth Isaksson, Robert Mulvaney, Per Holmund, Volodya Lipenkov, Ian Goodwin

Earth Science Faculty Scholarship

From its original formulation in 1990 the International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition (ITASE) has had as its primary aim the collection and interpretation of a continent-wide array of environmental parameters assembled through the coordinated efforts of scientists from several nations. ITASE offers the ground-based opportunities of traditional-style traverse travel coupled with the modern technology of GPS, crevasse detecting radar, satellite communications and multidisciplinary research. By operating predominantly in the mode of an oversnow traverse, ITASE offers scientists the opportunity to experience the dynamic range of the Antarctic environment. ITASE also offers an important interactive venue for research similar to that afforded …

Variability In Accumulation Rates From Gpr Profiling On The West Antarctic Plateau, Vandy B. Spikes, Gordon S. Hamilton, Steven A. Arcone, Susan Kaspari, Paul Andrew Mayewski

Earth Science Faculty Scholarship

Isochronal layers in firn detected with ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and dated using results from ice-core analyses are used to calculate accumulation rates along a 100 km across-flow profile in West Antarctica. Accumulation rates are shown to be highly variable over short distances. Elevation measurements from global positioning system surveys show that accumulation rates derived from shallow horizons correlate well with surface undulations, which implies that wind redistribution of snow is the leading cause of this variability. Temporal changes in accumulation rate over 25-185 year intervals are smoothed to along-track length scales comparable to surface undulations in order to identify trends …

Antarctic Oversnow Traverse-Based Southern Hemisphere Climate Reconstruction, Paul Andrew Mayewski

Earth Science Faculty Scholarship

On 2 January 2003, the U.S. component of the International Trans Antarctic Scientific Expedition (U.S. ITASE) (Figure 1) arrived at the South Pole after completing more than 5000 km of oversnow traverses that included much of west Antarctica and a portion of east Antarctica (Figure 2). During the traverses, which were performed from 1999 through 2003, U.S. ITASE focused on collecting data that will allow the reconstruction of sub-annual scale climate variability and changes in the chemistry of the atmosphere over the last 200+ years.

ITASE is a multi-disciplinary research program supported by 19 nations and endorsed by the Scientific …

Chemical Composition Of Fresh Snow On Xixabangma Peak, Central Himalaya, During The Summer Monsoon Season, Shichang Kang, Dahe Qin, Paul Andrew Mayewski, Sharon B. Sneed

Earth Science Faculty Scholarship

The physical and chemical analysis of ice cores recovered from glaciers in the Himalaya provide some of the best records of past climate change in the region (e.g. Qin and others, 2000; Thompson and others, 2000; Kang and others, 2001, 2002). In order to better understand the climatic and environmental records preserved in snow and ice, studies have investigated the precipitation chemistry in the high Himalaya, notably that the northern slopes of the central Himalaya (Mayewski and others, 1986; Jenkins and others 1987) and the southern slopes of the central Himalaya (Shrestha and others, 1997; Marinoni and others, 2001).

Methanesulfonate In The Firn Of King George Island, Antarctica, Jiankang Han, Zichu Xie, Xinping Zhang, Dongsheng Dai, Paul Andrew Mayewski, M. S. Twickler

Earth Science Faculty Scholarship

Methanesulfonate was investigated as a potential contributor to the sulfur budget, based on analysis of a firn core from Collins Ice Cap, King George Island, Antarctica (62°10' S, 58°50' W). The anion was found to be present at a mean concentration of 0.17 μeq L^-1, with a maximum of 0.73 μeq L^-1. Dating based on the δ¹⁸O profile suggests that the principal peaks of methanesulfonate are associated with snow deposited in summer and autumn. A careful examination of MSA, SO₄^2-and nssSO₄^2- profiles indicates that two of the three peaks …

High-Precision Dating Of Volcanic Events (A.D. 1301–1995) Using Ice Cores From Law Dome, Antarctica, Anne S. Palmer, Tas D. Van Ommen, Mark A. J. Curran, Vin Morgan, Joe M. Souney, Paul Andrew Mayewski

Earth Science Faculty Scholarship

A record of volcanic activity over the period A.D. 1301–1995 has been extracted from three Law Dome ice cores (East Antarctica). The record dating is unambiguous at the annual level from A.D. 1807 to 1995 and has an uncertainty of ±1 year at A.D. 1301. Signals from 20 eruptions are preserved in the record, including those of two unknown eruptions with acid deposition beginning in A.D. 1810.8 and A.D. 1685.8. The beginning of the ice core signal from the A.D. 1815 Tambora eruption is observed in the austral summer of A.D. 1816/1817. The mean observed stratospheric transport and deposition time …

The Effect Of Spatial And Temporal Accumulation Rate Variability In West Antarctica On Soluble Ion Deposition, K. J. Kreutz, Paul Andrew Mayewski, L. D. Meeker, M. S. Twickler, S. I. Whitlow

Earth Science Faculty Scholarship

Annually‐dated snowpit and ice core records from two areas of West Antarctica are used to investigate spatial accumulation patterns and to evaluate temporal accumulation rate/glaciochemical concentration and flux relationships. Mean accumulation rate gradients in Marie Byrd Land (11–23 gcm⁻²yr⁻¹ over 150 km, decreasing to the south) and Siple Dome (10–18 gcm⁻²yr⁻¹ over 60 km, decreasing to the south) are consistent for at least the last several decades, and demonstrate the influence of the offshore quasi‐permanent Amundsen Sea low pressure system on moisture flux into the region. Local and regional‐scale topography in both regions appears …

Sea Level Pressure Variability In The Amundsen Sea Region Inferred From A West Antarctic Glaciochemical Record, K. J. Kreutz, Paul Andrew Mayewski, I. I. Pittalwala, L. D. Meeker, M. S. Twickler, S. I. Whitlow

Earth Science Faculty Scholarship

Using European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical operational analyses, sea ice extent records, and station pressure data, we investigate the influence of sea level pressure variability in the Amundsen Sea region on a West Antarctic (Siple Dome) glaciochemical record. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of the high-resolution Siple Dome multivariate ice core chemical time series record (SDEOF1) documents lower tropospheric transport of sea-salt aerosols to the site. During 1985–1994 the SDEOF1 record of high (low) aerosol transport corresponds to anomalously low (high) sea level pressure (SLP) in the Amundsen Sea region. Spatial correlation patterns between ECMWF monthly SLP fields …