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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Climate-Informed Prediction And Forecast Modeling Of Installation Total Energy Consumption, Scott C. Weiss
Climate-Informed Prediction And Forecast Modeling Of Installation Total Energy Consumption, Scott C. Weiss
Theses and Dissertations
Climate variability is an external and stochastic factor that causes energy demand uncertainty. Energy managers can use climate-based models to understand future trends of energy demand and to adjust operations, policy, and budgets accordingly. This research focuses on 1) identifying how climate attributes impact energy use, 2) creating a historically informed statistical modeling framework to skillfully predict energy use, and 3) forecasting future changes to energy use and costs, using CMIP5 temperature projections, at the campus level. After synthesizing the existing breadth of research on climate-informed energy modeling, a skillful, unbiased, climate-informed total energy consumption prediction model is developed for …
Improving Airfield Pavement Degradation Prediction Skill With Local Climate And Traffic, Evan M. Fortney
Improving Airfield Pavement Degradation Prediction Skill With Local Climate And Traffic, Evan M. Fortney
Theses and Dissertations
Airfield pavements are a critical component of the global transportation network that provide a platform for national defense. Preventative and corrective maintenance activities are founded upon accurate expectations of degradation. The leading pavement management software creates degradation predictions from pavement groups using age as the IV and current state conditions as the DV. For this work, a framework is created and implemented that utilizes a PCR model to build upon accepted practices for degradation modeling to enhance and possibly augment future prediction capabilities. The model was applied to pairs of location and pavement family and reveals several findings: the selected …