Women's Health Commons^™

Estimating Age-Specific Contraceptive Use For Spacing Of Childbirth For All Countries In Sub-Saharan Africa From 1985 To 2030 Using A Bayesian Hierarchical Time Series Model, Gregory Guranich

Masters Theses

Contraceptive usage for spacing of childbirth is an important indicator for understanding family planning practices as well as fertility transitions. Fertility transition are especially important in sub-Saharan Africa where fertility remains high in many countries. However, estimates and short-term projections are generally not available for countries in this region. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical time series model to estimate and project usage of contraceptives for spacing by 5-year age groups for all countries in sub-Saharan Africa for the years 1985-2030. Estimating country-age-year specific usage is challenging due to limited data availability. We use Bayesian hierarchical models to share information across …