Public Health Commons^™

World Health Organization Cardiovascular Disease Risk Charts: Revised Models To Estimate Risk In 21 Global Regions, Stephen Kaptoge, Lisa Pennells, Dirk De Bacquer, Marie Therese Cooney, Maryam Kavousi, Gretchen Stevens, Leanne Margaret Riley, Stefan Savin, Taskeen Khan, Servet Altay, Carlos J. Crespo, Multiple Additional Authors

OHSU-PSU School of Public Health Faculty Publications and Presentations

Background: To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions.

Methods: In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history …

Equalization Of Four Cardiovascular Risk Algorithms After Systematic Recalibration: Individual-Participant Meta-Analysis Of 86 Prospective Studies, Lisa Pennells, Stephen Kaptoge, Angela Wood, Mike Sweeting, Xinghui Zhao, Carlos J. Crespo, Multiple Additional Authors

OHSU-PSU School of Public Health Faculty Publications and Presentations

Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.

Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination …

Cardiovascular Risk Factors Associated With Venous Thromboembolism, John Gregson, Stephen Kaptoge, Thomas Bolton, Lisa Pennells, Peter Willeit, Carlos J. Crespo, Multiple Additional Authors

OHSU-PSU School of Public Health Faculty Publications and Presentations

Importance It is uncertain to what extent established cardiovascular risk factors are associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE).

Objective To estimate the associations of major cardiovascular risk factors with VTE, ie, deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism.

Design, Setting, and Participants This study included individual participant data mostly from essentially population-based cohort studies from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 731 728 participants; 75 cohorts; years of baseline surveys, February 1960 to June 2008; latest date of follow-up, December 2015) and the UK Biobank (421 537 participants; years of baseline surveys, March 2006 to September 2010; latest date of follow-up, February …