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Predicting Human Drug Toxicity And Safety Via Animal Tests: Can Any One Species Predict Drug Toxicity In Any Other, And Do Monkeys Help?, Jarrod Bailey, Michelle Thew, Michael Balls

Jarrod Bailey, PhD

Animals are still widely used in drug development and safety tests, despite evidence for their lack of predictive value. In this regard, we recently showed, by producing Likelihood Ratios (LRs) for an extensive data set of over 3,000 drugs with both animal and human data, that the absence of toxicity in animals provides little or virtually no evidential weight that adverse drug reactions will also be absent in humans. While our analyses suggest that the presence of toxicity in one species may sometimes add evidential weight for risk of toxicity in another, the LRs are extremely inconsistent, varying substantially for …