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Full-Text Articles in Medical Biomathematics and Biometrics
Statistical Methods For Analyzing Sequentially Randomized Trials, Oliver Bembom, Mark J. Van Der Laan
Statistical Methods For Analyzing Sequentially Randomized Trials, Oliver Bembom, Mark J. Van Der Laan
Oliver Bembom
In this issue of JNCI, Thall et al. present the results of a clinical trial that makes use of sequential randomization, a novel trial design that allows the investigator to study adaptive treatment strategies. Our aim is to complement this groundbreaking work by reviewing the current state of the art of statistical methods available for such analyses. Using the data collected by Thall et al. as an example, we focus on two different approaches for estimating the success rates of different adaptive treatment strategies of interest. By emphasizing the intuitive appeal and straightforward implementation of these methods and illustrating the …
Biomarker Discovery Using Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation: Application To The Treatment Of Antiretroviral Resistant Hiv Infection, Oliver Bembom, Maya L. Petersen, Soo-Yon Rhee, W. Jeffrey Fessel, Sandra E. Sinisi, Robert W. Shafer, Mark J. Van Der Laan
Biomarker Discovery Using Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation: Application To The Treatment Of Antiretroviral Resistant Hiv Infection, Oliver Bembom, Maya L. Petersen, Soo-Yon Rhee, W. Jeffrey Fessel, Sandra E. Sinisi, Robert W. Shafer, Mark J. Van Der Laan
Oliver Bembom
Researchers in clinical science and bioinformatics frequently aim to learn which of a set of candidate biomarkers is important in determining a given outcome, and to rank the contributions of the candidates accordingly. This article introduces a new approach to research questions of this type, based on targeted maximum likelihood estimation of variable importance measures. The methodology is illustrated using an example drawn from the treatment of HIV infection. Specifically, given a list of candidate mutations in the protease enzyme of HIV, we aim to discover mutations that reduce clinical virologic response to antiretroviral regimens containing the protease inhibitor lopinavir. …
Data-Adaptive Estimation Of The Treatment-Specific Mean, Yue Wang, Oliver Bembom, Mark Van Der Laan
Data-Adaptive Estimation Of The Treatment-Specific Mean, Yue Wang, Oliver Bembom, Mark Van Der Laan
Oliver Bembom
An important problem in epidemiology and medical research is the estimation of the causal effect of a treatment action at a single point in time on the mean of an outcome, possibly within strata of the target population defined by a subset of the baseline covariates. Current approaches to this problem are based on marginal structural models, i.e. parametric models for the marginal distribution of counterfactual outcomes as a function of treatment and effect modifiers. The various estimators developed in this context furthermore each depend on a high-dimensional nuisance parameter whose estimation currently also relies on parametric models. Since misspecification …
Estimating The Effect Of Vigorous Physical Activity On Mortality In The Elderly Based On Realistic Individualized Treatment And Intention-To-Treat Rules, Oliver Bembom, Mark J. Van Der Laan
Estimating The Effect Of Vigorous Physical Activity On Mortality In The Elderly Based On Realistic Individualized Treatment And Intention-To-Treat Rules, Oliver Bembom, Mark J. Van Der Laan
Oliver Bembom
The effect of vigorous physical activity on mortality in the elderly is difficult to estimate using conventional approaches to causal inference that define this effect by comparing the mortality risks corresponding to hypothetical scenarios in which all subjects in the target population engage in a given level of vigorous physical activity. A causal effect defined on the basis of such a static treatment intervention can only be identified from observed data if all subjects in the target population have a positive probability of selecting each of the candidate treatment options, an assumption that is highly unrealistic in this case since …
Analyzing Sequentially Randomized Trials Based On Causal Effect Models For Realistic Individualized Treatment Rules, Oliver Bembom, Mark J. Van Der Laan
Analyzing Sequentially Randomized Trials Based On Causal Effect Models For Realistic Individualized Treatment Rules, Oliver Bembom, Mark J. Van Der Laan
Oliver Bembom
In this paper, we argue that causal effect models for realistic individualized treatment rules represent an attractive tool for analyzing sequentially randomized trials. Unlike a number of methods proposed previously, this approach does not rely on the assumption that intermediate outcomes are discrete or that models for the distributions of these intermediate outcomes given the observed past are correctly specified. In addition, it generalizes the methodology for performing pairwise comparisons between individualized treatment rules by allowing the user to posit a marginal structural model for all candidate treatment rules simultaneously. If only a small number of candidate treatment rules are …
The Causal Effect Of Recent Leisure-Time Physical Activity On All-Cause Mortality Among The Elderly, Oliver Bembom, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Ira B. Tager
The Causal Effect Of Recent Leisure-Time Physical Activity On All-Cause Mortality Among The Elderly, Oliver Bembom, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Ira B. Tager
Oliver Bembom
We analyze data collected as part of a prospective cohort study of elderly people living in and around Sonoma, CA, in order to estimate, for each round of interviews, the causal effect of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) over the past year on the risk of mortality in the following two years. For each round of interviews, this effect is estimated separately for subpopulations defined based on past exercise habits, age, and whether subjects have had cardiac events in the past. This decomposition of the original longitudinal data structure into a series of point-treatment data structures corresponds to an application of …
A Practical Illustration Of The Importance Of Realistic Individualized Treatment Rules In Causal Inference, Oliver Bembom, Mark J. Van Der Laan
A Practical Illustration Of The Importance Of Realistic Individualized Treatment Rules In Causal Inference, Oliver Bembom, Mark J. Van Der Laan
Oliver Bembom
The effect of vigorous physical activity on mortality in the elderly is difficult to estimate using conventional approaches to causal inference that define this effect by comparing the mortality risks corresponding to hypothetical scenarios in which all subjects in the target population engage in a given level of vigorous physical activity. A causal effect defined on the basis of such a static treatment intervention can only be identified from observed data if all subjects in the target population have a positive probability of selecting each of the candidate treatment options, an assumption that is highly unrealistic in this case since …