Medical Biomathematics and Biometrics Commons^™

452— Potential Impacts Of Basic Reproduction Number On The Covid-19 Epidemic, Marisa Presutto

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The basic reproduction number (R₀) of a disease can be thought of as the number of cases that one case will directly generate if the rest of the population is susceptible to infection. The R₀ of COVID-19 has recently become clearer; toward the beginning of the outbreak, the Imperial College Group estimated it to be somewhere between 1.5 and 3.5 (Imai et al. 2020), but they have now assumed a value of 2.4 (Ferguson et al. 2020). Using the Watts-Strogatz small-world model, I examined the effects of different R₀ values within the original range on the …