Medicine and Health Sciences Commons^™

Optimization Of Biomathematical Model Predictions For Cognitive Performance Impairment In Individuals: Accounting For Unknown Traits And Uncertain States In Homeostatic And Circadian Processes, Hans P. A. Van Dongen, Christopher G. Mott, Jen-Kuang Huang, Daniel J. Mollicone, Frederic D. Mckenzie, David F. Dinges

Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering Faculty Publications

Current biomathematical models of fatigue and performance do not accurately predict cognitive performance for individuals with a priori unknown degrees of trait vulnerability to sleep loss, do not predict performance reliably when initial conditions are uncertain, and do not yield statistically valid estimates of prediction accuracy, These limitations diminish their usefulness for predicting the performance of individuals in operational environments. To overcome these 3 limitations, a novel modeling approach was developed, based on the expansion of a statistical technique called Bayesian forecasting. The expanded Bayesian forecasting procedure was implemented in the two-process model of sleep regulation, which has been used …