Medicine and Health Sciences Commons^™

Heuristic Modeling Of Carcinogenesis For The Population With Dichotomous Susceptibility To Cancer: A Pancreatic Cancer Example., Tengiz Mdzinarishvili, Simon Sherman

Journal Articles: Eppley Institute

At present, carcinogenic models imply that all individuals in a population are susceptible to cancer. These models either ignore a fall of the cancer incidence rate at old ages, or use some poorly identifiable parameters for its accounting. In this work, a new heuristic model is proposed. The model assumes that, in a population, only a small fraction (pool) of individuals is susceptible to cancer and decomposes the problem of the carcinogenic modeling on two sequentially solvable problems: (i) determination of the age-specific hazard rate in individuals susceptible to cancer (individual hazard rate) from the observed hazard rate in the …

A Heuristic Solution Of The Identifiability Problem Of The Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Of Cancer Occurrence: Lung Cancer Example., Tengiz Mdzinarishvili, Simon Sherman

Journal Articles: Eppley Institute

BACKGROUND: The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis is aimed at estimating the following effects on disease incidence: (i) the age of the subject at the time of disease diagnosis; (ii) the time period, when the disease occurred; and (iii) the date of birth of the subject. These effects can help in evaluating the biological events leading to the disease, in estimating the influence of distinct risk factors on disease occurrence, and in the development of new strategies for disease prevention and treatment.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a novel approach for estimating the APC effects on disease incidence rates in the frame of …