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Recommended Reporting Items For Epidemic Forecasting And Prediction Research: The Epiforge 2020 Guidelines, Simon Pollett, Michael A. Johansson, Nicholas G. Reich, David Brett-Major, Sara Y. Del Valle, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Rachel Lowe, Travis Porco, Irina Maljkovic Berry, Alina Deshpande, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, David L. Blazes, Wirichada Pan-Ngum, Alessandro Vespigiani, Suzanne E. Mate, Sheetal P. Silal, Sasikiran Kandula, Rachel Sippy, Talia M. Quandelacy, Jeffrey J. Morgan, Jacob Ball, Lindsay C. Morton, Benjamin M. Althouse, Julie Pavlin, Wilbert Van Panhuis, Steven Riley, Matthew Biggerstaff, Cecile Viboud, Oliver Brady, Caitlin Rivers

Journal Articles: Epidemiology

BACKGROUND: The importance of infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction research is underscored by decades of communicable disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. Unlike other fields of medical research, such as clinical trials and systematic reviews, no reporting guidelines exist for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research despite their utility. We therefore developed the EPIFORGE checklist, a guideline for standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting research.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed this checklist using a best-practice process for development of reporting guidelines, involving a Delphi process and broad consultation with an international panel of infectious disease modelers and model end users. The objectives …

Lying In Wait: The Resurgence Of Dengue Virus After The Zika Epidemic In Brazil, Anderson Fernandes Brito, Lais Ceschini Machado, Rachel J. Oidtman, Márcio Junio Lima Siconelli, Quan Minh Tran, Joseph R. Fauver, Rodrigo Dias De Oliveira Carvalho, Filipe Zimmer Dezordi, Mylena Ribeiro Pereira, Luiza Antunes De Castro-Jorge, Elaine Cristina Manini Minto, Luzia Márcia Romanholi Passos, Chaney C. Kalinich, Mary E. Petrone, Emma Allen, Guido Camargo España, Angkana T. Huang, Derek A. T. Cummings, Guy Baele, Rafael Freitas Oliveira Franca, Benedito Antônio Lopes Da Fonseca, T. Alex Perkins, Gabriel Luz Wallau, Nathan D. Grubaugh

Journal Articles: Epidemiology

After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas in 2016, both Zika and dengue incidence declined to record lows in many countries in 2017-2018, but in 2019 dengue resurged in Brazil, causing ~2.1 million cases. In this study we use epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to investigate dengue dynamics in recent years in Brazil. First, we estimate dengue virus force of infection (FOI) and model mosquito-borne transmission suitability since the early 2000s. Our estimates reveal that DENV transmission was low in 2017-2018, despite conditions being suitable for viral spread. Our study also shows a marked decline in dengue susceptibility …