Medicine and Health Sciences Commons^™

Ecological Drivers Of African Swine Fever Virus Persistence In Wild Boar Populations: Insight For Control, Kim M. Pepin, Andrew J. Golnar, Zaid Abdo, Tomasz Podgórski

USDA Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Environmental sources of infection can play a primary role in shaping epidemiological dynamics; however, the relative impact of environmental transmission on host-pathogen systems is rarely estimated. We developed and fit a spatially explicit model of African swine fever virus (ASFV) in wild boar to estimate what proportion of carcassbased transmission is contributing to the low-level persistence of ASFV in Eastern European wild boar. Our model was developed based on ecological insight and data from field studies of ASFV and wild boar in Eastern Poland. We predicted that carcass- based transmission would play a substantial role in persistence, especially in low-density …