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Simulating Health Policy Interventions To Reduce Nonmedical Use Of Pharmaceutical Opioids, Alexandra E. Nielsen, Wayne W. Wakeland, Teresa Schmidt

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

A system dynamics simulation model helps explain historical trends in the United States regarding the nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids and its associated adverse outcomes. Drawing data from the National Survey of Drug Use and Health and guided by a panel of experts, model parameters were calibrated to replicate opioid use data from 1995-2005, and various policy interventions were simulated between 2006 and 2011. The simulation reproduces historical trends in nonmedical opioid use. Differential equations represent each of the three major components: 1) Peer initiation is modeled as the infection of a susceptible population by peers, which functions as a …

Dynamic Modeling Of Nonmedical Opioid Initiation: Epidemic And Access, Alexandra Nielsen, Teresa D. Schmidt, Dennis Mccarty, Wayne W. Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

We report development of a systems level dynamic model of initiation and nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids in the US. The model calibrated to 1995-2005 National Survey of Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) data, predicts 2006-2011 data well. Preliminary findings indicate that interventions which reduce the perceived attractiveness of opioids for recreational use may be able to reduce initiation and nonmedical use most significantly, while supply restriction effected through drug take back days and prescribing changes may have more modest effects. We argue that system dynamics is an effective approach for evaluating potential interventions to this complex system where the …

Data On The Diversion, Nonmedical Use And Adverse Outcomes Associated With Pharmaceutical Opioids, Amanuel Zimam, Teresa D. Schmidt, Alexandra Nielsen, Wayne W. Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Background: Recent increases in the nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids and the adverse outcomes associated with them have stimulated a large amount of research and data collection on this public health problem. Systematic organization of the available data sources is needed to facilitate ongoing research, analysis, and evaluation.

Method: A list of keywords associated with diversion, nonmedical use, and adverse outcomes of pharmaceutical opioid use generated 94 peer-reviewed academic articles and a number of governmental and nongovernmental sources. All sources were in English, contained quantitative data, and were published between January 1995 and April 2012. A list of 20 topics …