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A Perspective On Multiple Waves Of Influenza Pandemics, Anna Mummert, Howard Weiss, Li-Ping Long, José M. Amigó, Xiu-Feng Wan

College of Veterinary Medicine Publications and Scholarship

BACKGROUND: A striking characteristic of the past four influenza pandemic outbreaks in the United States has been the multiple waves of infections. However, the mechanisms responsible for the multiple waves of influenza or other acute infectious diseases are uncertain. Understanding these mechanisms could provide knowledge for health authorities to develop and implement prevention and control strategies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We exhibit five distinct mechanisms, each of which can generate two waves of infections for an acute infectious disease. The first two mechanisms capture changes in virus transmissibility and behavioral changes. The third mechanism involves population heterogeneity (e.g., demography, geography), where …