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The Economic And Employment Consequences Of Repealing Federal Health Reform: A 50 State Analysis, Leighton Ku, Erika Steinmetz, Erin Brantley, Brian K. Bruen

Health Policy and Management Issue Briefs

Donald Trump and Congressional leaders have stated their intent to repeal the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA or Obamacare). This report examines the consequences of repealing two key elements: (1) federal premium tax credits that help low and middle income Americans afford insurance policies bought through the Health Insurance Marketplaces (exchanges) and (2) federal payments to states for expansions of Medicaid eligibility for low-income adults. Congress passed similar legislation (H.R. 3762) in late 2015, which President Obama vetoed.

This report analyzes how the repeal of these policies could affect state-level employment, economies and fiscal conditions. If tax credits …

Repealing Federal Health Reform: Economic And Employment Consequences For States, Leighton C. Ku, Erika Steinmetz, Erin Brantley, Brian K. Bruen

Health Policy and Management Issue Briefs

Issue: The incoming Trump administration and Republicans in Congress are seeking to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA), likely beginning with the law’s insurance premium tax credits and expansion of Medicaid eligibility. Research shows that the loss of these two provisions would lead to a doubling of the number of uninsured, higher uncompensated care costs for providers, and higher taxes for low-income Americans.

Goal: To determine the state-by-state effect of repeal on employment and economic activity.

Methods: A multistate economic forecasting model (PI+ from Regional Economic Models, Inc.) was used to quantify for each state the effects of the federal …