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Full-Text Articles in Medicine and Health Sciences
Behavioral Biases In Daily Fantasy Baseball: The Case Of The Hot Hand, Jeremy M. Losak, Andrew P. Weinbach, Rodney J. Paul
Behavioral Biases In Daily Fantasy Baseball: The Case Of The Hot Hand, Jeremy M. Losak, Andrew P. Weinbach, Rodney J. Paul
Sport Management - All Scholarship
Despite mixed evidence, sport participants and fans heavily believe in the existence of the hot hand. Prior literature examining NBA and NFL betting markets found betters were biased toward hot teams. Using a unique market and data set, this study identifies if the hot hand is prevalent in daily fantasy baseball contests, if there is a profitable hot hand selection strategy, and if consumers believe in its existence. Results show that while there is no evidence of a hot hand effect, and no evidence of a profitable hot hand strategy, consumers believe in and incorporate it in their lineup decisions.
Does Smart Money Believe In The Hot Hand? Evidence From Daily Fantasy Baseball, Jeremy M. Losak, Andrew P. Weinbach, Rodney J. Paul
Does Smart Money Believe In The Hot Hand? Evidence From Daily Fantasy Baseball, Jeremy M. Losak, Andrew P. Weinbach, Rodney J. Paul
Sport Management - All Scholarship
The behavior of informed traders, or 'smart money,' in sports betting markets has long been f interest to researchers. In this paper, we focus specifically on the behavior of smart money in Major league Baseball (MLB) daily fantasy sports (DFS) contests to determine if they avoid cognitive behavioral biases to increase their expected earnings. Specifically, we investigate whether smart money avoids the hot hand bias, where individuals tend to overestimate the likelihood of success for players on a hot streak. Using a dataset of MLB DFS contests, we find that winning lineups have lower usage rates for players exhibiting the …