Medicine and Health Sciences Commons^™

Whooping Cough Dynamics In Chile (1932-2010): Diseasetemporal Fluctuations Across A North-South Gradient, Mauricio Lima, Sergio Estay, Rodrigo Fuentes, Paola Rubilar, Hélène Broutin, Gerardo Chowell

Public Health Faculty Publications

Background: The spatial-temporal dynamics of Bordetella pertussis remains as a highly interesting case in infectious disease epidemiology. Despite large-scale vaccination programs in place for over 50 years around the world, frequent outbreaks are still reported in many countries.

Methods: Here, we use annual time series of pertussis incidence from the thirteen different regions of Chile (1952–2010) to study the spatial-temporal dynamics of Pertussis. The period 1975–1995 was characterized by a strong 4 year cycle, while the last two decades of the study period (1990–2010) were characterized by disease resurgence without significant periodic patterns. Results: During the first decades, differences in …

Mathematical Assessment Of Canada’S Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan, Abba B. Gumel, Miriam Nuño, Gerardo Chowell

Public Health Faculty Publications

OBJECTIVE: The presence of the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus in wild bird populations in several regions of the world, together with recurrent cases of H5N1 influenza arising primarily from direct contact with poultry, have highlighted the urgent need for preparedness and coordinated global strategies to effectively combat a potential influenza pandemic. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the Canadian pandemic influenza preparedness plan.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: A mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of influenza was used to keep track of the population according to risk of infection (low or high) and infection status (susceptible, exposed …

The Role Of Vaccination In The Control Of Sars, Julijana Gjorgjieva, Kelly Smith, Gerardo Chowell, Fabio Sanchez, Jessica Snyder, Carlos Castillo-Chavez

Public Health Faculty Publications

We assess pre-outbreak and during-outbreak vaccination as control strategies for SARS epidemics using a mathematical model that includes susceptible, latent (traced and untraced), infectious, isolated and recovered individuals. Scenarios focusing on policies that include contact tracing and levels of self-isolation among untraced infected individuals are explored. Bounds on the proportion of pre-outbreak successfully vaccinated individuals are provided using the the basic reproductive number. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on the reproductive number are carried out. The final epidemic size under different vaccination scenarios is computed.