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Seasonal Forcing In Stochastic Epidemiology Models, Lora Billings, Eric Forgoston
Seasonal Forcing In Stochastic Epidemiology Models, Lora Billings, Eric Forgoston
Lora Billings
The goal of this paper is to motivate the need and lay the foundation for the analysis of stochastic epidemiological models with seasonal forcing.We consider stochastic SIS and SIR epidemic models, where the internal noise is due to the random interactions of individuals in the population. We provide an overview of the general theoretic framework that allows one to understand noise-induced rare events, such as spontaneous disease extinction. Although there are many paths to extinction, there is one path termed the optimal path that is probabilistically most likely to occur. By extending the theory, we have identified the quasi-stationary solutions …
Seasonal Forcing In Stochastic Epidemiology Models, Lora Billings, Eric Forgoston
Seasonal Forcing In Stochastic Epidemiology Models, Lora Billings, Eric Forgoston
Eric Forgoston
The goal of this paper is to motivate the need and lay the foundation for the analysis of stochastic epidemiological models with seasonal forcing.We consider stochastic SIS and SIR epidemic models, where the internal noise is due to the random interactions of individuals in the population. We provide an overview of the general theoretic framework that allows one to understand noise-induced rare events, such as spontaneous disease extinction. Although there are many paths to extinction, there is one path termed the optimal path that is probabilistically most likely to occur. By extending the theory, we have identified the quasi-stationary solutions …