Medicine and Health Sciences Commons^™

Multipatch Stochastic Epidemic Model For The Dynamics Of A Tick-Borne Disease, Milliward Maliyoni, Holly D. Gaff, Keshlan S. Govinder, Faraimunashe Chirove

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Spatial heterogeneity and migration of hosts and ticks have an impact on the spread, extinction and persistence of tick-borne diseases. In this paper, we investigate the impact of between-patch migration of white-tailed deer and lone star ticks on the dynamics of a tick-borne disease with regard to disease extinction and persistence using a system of Itô stochastic differential equations model. It is shown that the disease-free equilibrium exists and is unique. The general formula for computing the basic reproduction number for all patches is derived. We show that for patches in isolation, the basic reproduction number is equal to the …

The Acute Physiological Response Of Polar Bears To Helicopter Capture, John P. Whiteman, Henry J. Harlow, George M. Durner, Eric V. Regehr, Steven C. Amstrup, Anthony M. Pagano, Merav Ben-David

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Many wildlife species are live captured, sampled, and released; for polar bears (Ursus maritimus) capture often requires chemical immobilization via helicopter darting. Polar bears reduce their activity for approximately 4 days after capture, likely reflecting stress recovery. To better understand this stress, we quantified polar bear activity (via collar‐mounted accelerometers) and body temperature (via loggers in the body core [T_abd] and periphery [T_per]) during 2–6 months of natural behavior, and during helicopter recapture and immobilization. Recapture induced bouts of peak activity higher than those that occurred during natural behavior for 2 of 5 bears, …

Advancing Cyanobacteria Biomass Estimation From Hyperspectral Observations: Demonstrations With Hico And Prisma Imagery, Ryan E. O'Shea, Nima Pahlevan, Brandon Smith, Mariano Bresciani, Todd Egerton, Claudia Giardino, Lin Li, Tim Moore, Antonio Ruiz-Verdu, Steve Ruberg, Stefan G.H. Simis, Richard Stumpf, Diana Vaičiūtė

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Retrieval of the phycocyanin concentration (PC), a characteristic pigment of, and proxy for, cyanobacteria biomass, from hyperspectral satellite remote sensing measurements is challenging due to uncertainties in the remote sensing reflectance (∆R_rs) resulting from atmospheric correction and instrument radiometric noise. Although several individual algorithms have been proven to capture local variations in cyanobacteria biomass in specific regions, their performance has not been assessed on hyperspectral images from satellite sensors. Our work leverages a machine-learning model, Mixture Density Networks (MDNs), trained on a large (N = 939) dataset of collocated in situ chlorophyll-a concentrations (Chla), …

Range Expansion Of Tick Disease Vectors In North America: Implications For Spread Of Tick-Borne Disease, Daniel E. Sonenshine

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Ticks are the major vectors of most disease-causing agents to humans, companion animals and wildlife. Moreover, ticks transmit a greater variety of pathogenic agents than any other blood-feeding arthropod. Ticks have been expanding their geographic ranges in recent decades largely due to climate change. Furthermore, tick populations in many areas of their past and even newly established localities have increased in abundance. These dynamic changes present new and increasing severe public health threats to humans, livestock and companion animals in areas where they were previously unknown or were considered to be of minor importance. Here in this review, the geographic …

Impact Of Disease On The Survival Of Three Commercially Fished Species, John M. Hoenig, Maya L. Groner, Matthew W. Smith, Wolfgang K. Vogelbein, David M. Taylor, Donald F. Landers Jr., John T. Swenarton, David T. Gauthier

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Recent increases in emergent infectious diseases have raised concerns about the sustainability of some marine species. The complexity and expense of studying diseases in marine systems often dictate that conservation and management decisions are made without quantitative data on population-level impacts of disease. Mark-recapture is a powerful, underutilized, tool for calculating impacts of disease on population size and structure, even in the absence of etiological information. We applied logistic regression models to mark-recapture data to obtain estimates of disease-associated mortality rates in three commercially important marine species: snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) in Newfoundland, Canada, that experience sporadic epizootics …

Selective Mutation Accumulation: A Computational Model Of The Paternal Age Effect, Eoin C. Whelan, Alexander C. Nwala, Christopher Osgood, Stephan Olariu

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Motivation: As the mean age of parenthood grows, the effect of parental age on genetic disease and child health becomes ever more important. A number of autosomal dominant disorders show a dramatic paternal age effect due to selfish mutations: substitutions that grant spermatogonial stem cells (SSCs) a selective advantage in the testes of the father, but have a deleterious effect in offspring. In this paper we present a computational technique to model the SSC niche in order to examine the phenomenon and draw conclusions across different genes and disorders.

Results: We used a Markov chain to model the probabilities of …

Climate, Environmental And Socio-Economic Change: Weighing Up The Balance In Vector-Borne Disease Transmission, Paul E. Parham, Joanna Waldock, George K. Christophides, Deborah Hemming, Folashade Agusto, Katherine J. Evans, Nina Fefferman, Holly Gaff, Abba Gumel, Shannon Ladeau

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10-15 …

Cyanobacteria Dominance In The Oligohaline Waters Of Back Bay, Virginia, Harold G. Marshall

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Back Bay and its flora have historically been influenced by the interaction of freshwater flow in combination with frequent intrusion of saline water into its basin. These events have resulted in a dynamic environmental setting influencing the abundance and composition of its phytoplankton community. Dominating these oligohaline waters is a diverse representation and high abundance of freshwater filamentous and colonial cyanobacteria. These include the nonheterocystous Planktolyngbya contorta, Planktolyngbya limnetica, and Pseudanabaena limnetica, taxa implicated as bloom producers in Bay waters with N:P molar ratios ranging from 23:1 to 74:1.

An Epidemiological Model Of Rift Valley Fever With Spatial Dynamics, Tianchan Niu, Holly D. Gaff, Yiannis E. Papelis, David M. Hartley

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

As a category A agent in the Center for Disease Control bioterrorism list, Rift Valley fever (RVF) is considered a major threat to the United States (USA). Should the pathogen be intentionally or unintentionally introduced to the continental USA, there is tremendous potential for economic damages due to loss of livestock, trade restrictions, and subsequent food supply chain disruptions. We have incorporated the effects of space into a mathematical model of RVF in order to study the dynamics of the pathogen spread as affected by the movement of humans, livestock, and mosquitoes. The model accounts for the horizontal transmission of …

Use Of Optimal Control Models To Predict Treatment Time For Managing Tick-Borne Disease, Holly D. Gaff, Elsa Schaefer, Suzanne Lenhart

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Tick-borne diseases have been on the rise recently, and correspondingly, there is an increased interest in implementing control measures to decrease the risk. Optimal control provides an ideal tool to identify the best method for reducing risk while accounting for the associated costs. Using a previously published model, a variety of frameworks are assessed to identify the key factors influencing mitigation strategies. The level and duration of tick-reducing efforts are key metrics for understanding the successful reduction in tick-borne disease incidence. The results show that the punctuated nature of the tick's life history plays a critical role in reducing risk …

Estimating The Reproductive Numbers For The 2008-2009 Cholera Outbreaks In Zimbabwe, Zindoga Mukandavire, Shu Liao, Jin Wang, Holly Gaff, David L. Smith, J. Glenn Morris Jr.

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Cholera remains an important global cause of morbidity and mortality, capable of causing periodic epidemic disease. Beginning in August 2008, a major cholera epidemic occurred in Zimbabwe, with 98,585 reported cases and 4,287 deaths. The dynamics of such outbreaks, particularly in nonestuarine regions, are not well understood. We explored the utility of mathematical models in understanding transmission dynamics of cholera and in assessing the magnitude of interventions necessary to control epidemic disease. Weekly data on reported cholera cases were obtained from the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Welfare (MoHCW) for the period from November 13, 2008 to July 31, …

Advancing Epidemiological Science Through Computational Modeling: A Review With Novel Examples, Scott M. Duke-Sylvester, Eli N. Perencevich, Jon P. Furuno, Leslie A. Real, Holly Gaff

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Computational models have been successfully applied to a wide variety of research areas including infectious disease epidemiology. Especially for questions that are difficult to examine in other ways, computational models have been used to extend the range of epidemiological issues that can be addressed, advance theoretical understanding of disease processes and help identify specific intervention strategies. We explore each of these contributions to epidemiology research through discussion and examples. We also describe in detail models for raccoon rabies and methicillin-resis-tant Staphylococcus aureus, drawn from our own research, to further illustrate the role of computation in epidemiological modeling.

An Epidemiological Model Of Rift Valley Fever, Holly D. Gaff, David M. Hartley, Nicole P. Leahy

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

We present and explore a novel mathematical model of the epidemiology of Rift Valley Fever (RVF). RVF is an Old World, mosquito-borne disease affecting both livestock and humans. The model is an ordinary differential equation model for two populations of mosquito species, those that can transmit vertically and those that cannot, and for one livestock population. We analyze the model to find the stability of the disease-free equlibrium and test which model parameters affect this stability most significantly. This model is the basis for future research into the predication of future outbreaks in the Old World and the assessment of …

Phytoplankton Composition Within The Tidal Freshwater-Oligohaline Regions Of The Rappahannock And Pamunkey Rivers In Virginia, Harold G. Marshall, Lubomira Burchardt

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

The Rappahannock River is a major river system across north central Virginia prior to entering the Chesapeake Bay. In contrast, the Pamunkey River is smaller in size and joins the Mattoponi River to form the York River, which flows parallel to the Rappahannock before it also flows into Chesapeake Bay. A unique mixing area for both flora and environmental conditions exists in the tidal freshwater-oligohaline region of both rivers. This is a dynamic mixing section where freshwater and estuarine species are subject to the interaction of river flow and daily tidal rhythms. The phytoplankton composition in this region of the …

The Standardized Fish Bioassay Procedure For Detecting And Culturing Actively Toxic Pfiesteria, Used By Two Reference Laboratories For Atlantic And Gulf Coast States, Joann M. Burkholder, Harold G. Marshall, David W. Seaborn, Nora J. Deamer-Melia

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

In the absence of purified standards of toxins from Pfiesteria species, appropriately conducted fish bioassays are the "gold standard" that must be used to detect toxic strains of Pfiesteria slop. from natural estuarine water or sediment samples and to culture actively toxic Pfiesteria. In this article, we describe the standardized steps of our fish bioassay as an abbreviated term for a procedure that includes two sets of trials with fish, following the Henle-Koch postulates modified for toxic rather than infectious agents. This procedure was developed in 1991, and has been refined over more than 12 years of experience in …