Medicine and Health Sciences Commons^™

Ensemble-Based Methods For Forecasting Census In Hospital Units, Devin C. Koestler, Hernando Ombao, Jesse Bender

Dartmouth Scholarship

The ability to accurately forecast census counts in hospital departments has considerable implications for hospital resource allocation. In recent years several different methods have been proposed forecasting census counts, however many of these approaches do not use available patient-specific information. In this paper we present an ensemble-based methodology for forecasting the census under a framework that simultaneously incorporates both (i) arrival trends over time and (ii) patient-specific baseline and time-varying information. The proposed model for predicting census has three components, namely: current census count, number of daily arrivals and number of daily departures. To model the number of daily arrivals, …

Observational Intensity Bias Associated With Illness Adjustment: Cross Sectional Analysis Of Insurance Claims, J. E. Wennberg, D. O. Staiger, S. M. Sharp, D. J. Gottlieb

Dartmouth Scholarship

Objective: To determine the bias associated with frequency of visits by physicians in adjusting for illness, using diagnoses recorded in administrative databases.

Setting: Claims data from the US Medicare program for services provided in 2007 among 306 US hospital referral regions.

Design: Cross sectional analysis. Participants 20% sample of fee for service Medicare beneficiaries residing in the United States in 2007 (n=5 153 877).