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Full-Text Articles in Medicine and Health Sciences
Challenges And Best Practices In Real-Time Prediction Of Infectious Disease: A Case Study Of Dengue In Thailand, Nicholas Reich, Stephen Lauer, Krzysztof Sakrejda, Sopon Iamsirithaworn, Soawapak Hinjoy, Paphanij Suangtho, Suthanun Suthachana, Hannah Clapham, Henrik Salje, Derek Cummings, Justin Lessler
Challenges And Best Practices In Real-Time Prediction Of Infectious Disease: A Case Study Of Dengue In Thailand, Nicholas Reich, Stephen Lauer, Krzysztof Sakrejda, Sopon Iamsirithaworn, Soawapak Hinjoy, Paphanij Suangtho, Suthanun Suthachana, Hannah Clapham, Henrik Salje, Derek Cummings, Justin Lessler
Nicholas G Reich
Epidemics of communicable diseases place a huge burden on public health infrastructures across the world. Producing accurate and actionable forecasts of infectious disease incidence at short and long time scales will improve public health response to outbreaks. However, scientists and public health officials face many obstacles in trying to create accurate and actionable real-time forecasts of infectious disease incidence. Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that annually infects over 400 million people worldwide. We developed a real-time forecasting model for dengue hemorrhagic fever in the 77 provinces of Thailand. We created an operational and computational infrastructure that generated multi-step predictions of …
Interactions Between Serotypes Of Dengue Highlight Epidemiological Impact Of Cross-Immunity, Nicholas Reich, Sourya Shrestha, Aaron King, Pejman Rohani, Justin Lessler, Siripen Kalayanarooj, In-Kyu Yoon, Robert Gibbons, Donald Burke, Derek Cummings
Interactions Between Serotypes Of Dengue Highlight Epidemiological Impact Of Cross-Immunity, Nicholas Reich, Sourya Shrestha, Aaron King, Pejman Rohani, Justin Lessler, Siripen Kalayanarooj, In-Kyu Yoon, Robert Gibbons, Donald Burke, Derek Cummings
Nicholas G Reich
Dengue, a mosquito-borne virus of humans, infects over 50 million people annually. Infection with any of the four dengue serotypes induces protective immunity to that serotype, but does not confer long-term protection against infection by other serotypes. The immunological interactions between sero- types are of central importance in understanding epidemiological dynamics and anticipating the impact of dengue vaccines. We analysed a 38-year time series with 12 197 serotyped dengue infections from a hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. Using novel mechanistic models to represent different hypothesized immune interactions between serotypes, we found strong evidence that infec- tion with dengue provides substantial short-term …