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Estimating The Effect Of Vigorous Physical Activity On Mortality In The Elderly Based On Realistic Individualized Treatment And Intention-To-Treat Rules, Oliver Bembom, Mark J. Van Der Laan

Oliver Bembom

The effect of vigorous physical activity on mortality in the elderly is difficult to estimate using conventional approaches to causal inference that define this effect by comparing the mortality risks corresponding to hypothetical scenarios in which all subjects in the target population engage in a given level of vigorous physical activity. A causal effect defined on the basis of such a static treatment intervention can only be identified from observed data if all subjects in the target population have a positive probability of selecting each of the candidate treatment options, an assumption that is highly unrealistic in this case since …