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Profitably Risky: A Study Of Medicare Capitation Contracts For Primary Care Medical Practices, Michael Wieck

Dissertations

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services is seeking to move medical providers from a fee-for-service reimbursement model to a value-based reimbursement model. In this dissertation, we studied the financial rewards and risks that accompany capitation contracts. We employed Poisson regression to estimate health-care utilization of beneficiaries under the care of primary care providers with varying levels of capitation. Then, we calculated capitation contract results for primary care practices using Monte Carlo simulations. We used three methods to predict medical payments for beneficiaries: (1) empirical probability distributions of annual medical payments, (2) theoretical probability distributions of annual medical payments, and …