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Use Of Outcomes To Evaluate Surveillance Systems For Bioterrorist Attacks, Kerry A. Mcbrien, Ken P. Kleinman, Allyson M. Abrams, Lisa A. Prosser

Public Health Department Faculty Publication Series

Background

Syndromic surveillance systems can potentially be used to detect a bioterrorist attack earlier than traditional surveillance, by virtue of their near real-time analysis of relevant data. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis using the area under the curve (AUC) as a comparison metric has been recommended as a practical evaluation tool for syndromic surveillance systems, yet traditional ROC curves do not account for timeliness of detection or subsequent time-dependent health outcomes.

Methods

Using a decision-analytic approach, we predicted outcomes, measured in lives, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs, for a series of simulated bioterrorist attacks. We then evaluated …