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Full-Text Articles in Medicine and Health Sciences
Simulating Influenza Epidemics With Waning Vaccine Immunity, Chun-Miin Chen, Alia C. Stanciu
Simulating Influenza Epidemics With Waning Vaccine Immunity, Chun-Miin Chen, Alia C. Stanciu
Faculty Journal Articles
In this study, we simulate an influenza epidemic that considers the effects of waning immunity by fitting epidemiological models to CDC secondary historical data aggregated on a weekly basis, and derive the transmission rates at which susceptible individuals become infected over the course of the influenza season. Using a system of differential equations, we define four groups of individuals in a population: susceptible, vaccinated, infected, and recovered. We show that a larger number of initially infected individuals might not only bring the influenza season to an end sooner but also reduce the epidemic size. Moreover, any influenza virus that entails …
The Need To Incorporate Communities In Compartmental Models, Michael J. Kane, Owais Gilani
The Need To Incorporate Communities In Compartmental Models, Michael J. Kane, Owais Gilani
Faculty Journal Articles
Tian et al. provide a framework for assessing population- level interventions of disease outbreaks through the construction of counterfactuals in a large-scale, natural experiment assessing the efficacy of mild, but early interventions compared to delayed interventions. The technique is applied to the recent SARS-CoV-2 outbreak with the population of Shenzhen, China acting as the mild-but-early treatment group and a combination of several US counties resembling Shenzhen but enacting a delayed intervention acting as the control. To help further the development of this framework and identify an avenue for further enhancement, we focus on the use and potential limitations of compartmental …