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Full-Text Articles in Medicine and Health Sciences
Cholera Transmission Dynamic Models For Public Health Practitioners, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung
Cholera Transmission Dynamic Models For Public Health Practitioners, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung
Epidemiology Faculty Publications
Great progress has been made in mathematical models of cholera transmission dynamics in recent years. However, little impact, if any, has been made by models upon public health decision-making and day-to-day routine of epidemiologists. This paper provides a brief introduction to the basics of ordinary differential equation models of cholera transmission dynamics. We discuss a basic model adapted from Codeço (2001), and how it can be modified to incorporate different hypotheses, including the importance of asymptomatic or inapparent infections, and hyperinfectious V. choleraeand human-to-human transmission. We highlight three important challenges of cholera models: (1) model misspecification and parameter uncertainty, …
Modeling The Effect Of Water, Sanitation, And Hygiene And Oral Cholera Vaccine Implementation In Haiti, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, David L. Fitter, Rebekah H. Borse, Martin I. Meltzer, Jordan W. Tappero
Modeling The Effect Of Water, Sanitation, And Hygiene And Oral Cholera Vaccine Implementation In Haiti, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, David L. Fitter, Rebekah H. Borse, Martin I. Meltzer, Jordan W. Tappero
Isaac Chun-Hai Fung
In 2010, toxigenic Vibrio cholerae was newly introduced to Haiti. Because resources are limited, decisionmakers need to understand the effect of different preventive interventions. We built a static model to estimate the potential number of cholera cases averted through improvements in coverage in water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) (i.e., latrines, point-of-use chlorination, and piped water), oral cholera vaccine (OCV), or a combination of both. We allowed indirect effects and non-linear relationships between effect and population coverage. Because there are limited incidence data for endemic cholera in Haiti, we estimated the incidence of cholera over 20 years in Haiti by using …