Life Sciences Commons^™

Do We Need Demographic Data To Forecast Plant Population Dynamics?, Andrew T. Tredennick

Wildland Resources Faculty Publications

1. Rapid environmental change has generated growing interest in forecasts of future population trajectories. Traditional population models built with detailed demographic observations from one study site can address the impacts of environmental change at particular locations, but are difficult to scale up to the landscape and regional scales relevant to management decisions. An alternative is to build models using population-level data that are much easier to collect over broad spatial scales than individual-level data. However, it is unknown whether models built using population-level data adequately capture the effects of density-dependence and environmental forcing that are necessary to generate skillful forecasts.
2. Here, …

How Will Climate Change Affect Winter Recreation? Recent Research From Northern Minnesota, Lael Gilbert, Jordan W. Smith, Mae Davenport

All Current Publications

This fact sheet reviews recent research examining how winter-based outdoor recreation along the North Shore of Lake Superior will be affected by climate change. The research revealed the majority of outdoor recreationists who visit the region now won’t change their travel plans as temperatures increase and the snow and ice thins out. However, a substantial number of outdoor recreationists indicated they will visit the region more often in the future. This is largely due to longer shoulder seasons, which support these individuals’ preferred outdoor recreational activities. Knowing how outdoor recreationists’ behavioral responses to climate change vary will help community planners …

Forecasting Climate Change Impacts On Plant Populations Over Large Spatial Extents, Andrew T. Tredennick, Melvin Hooten, Cameron L. Aldridge, Collin G. Homer, Andrew R. Kleinhesselink, Peter B. Adler

Wildland Resources Faculty Publications

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. We overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates in the …

How Will Climate Change Affect Freshwater Fishing?, Lael Gilbert, Jordan W. Smith

All Current Publications

This fact sheet reviews how climate change can affect freshwater fishing in the United States. Climate change can affect the availability and diversity of target species, the environmental and aesthetic quality of fishing sites, as well as the policies used to manage freshwater fishing.

The Impact Of Climate Change On Inland Recreational Fishing, Lael Gilbert, Jordan W. Smith

All Current Publications

This fact sheet reviews the state of scientific knowledge regarding how climate change can impact inland recreational fishing. Climate change impacts inland recreational fishers in three dominant ways: 1) by affecting fish abundance and diversity; 2) by altering environmental conditions at inland recreational fishing sites; and 3) through indirect management actions and policies put in place to mitigate the undesirable impacts of climate change on fish species and inland recreational fishing settings.

Water Management Decision Making In The Face Of Multiple Forms Of Uncertainty And Risk, Morey Burnham, Zhao Ma, Joanna Endter-Wada, Tim Bardsley

Environment and Society Faculty Publications

In the Wasatch Range Metropolitan Area of Northern Utah, water management decision makers confront multiple forms of uncertainty and risk. Adapting to these uncertainties and risks is critical for maintaining the long‐term sustainability of the region's water supply. This study draws on interview data to assess the major challenges climatic and social changes pose to Utah's water future, as well as potential solutions. The study identifies the water management adaptation decision‐making space shaped by the interacting institutional, social, economic, political, and biophysical processes that enable and constrain sustainable water management. The study finds water managers and other water actors see …

A Multiple‐Scale Assessment Of Long‐Term Aspen Persistence And Elevational Range Shifts In The Colorado Front Range, Mario Bretfeld, Scott B. Franklin, Robert K. Peet

Aspen Bibliography

Aspen forests and woodlands are some of the most species‐rich forest communities in the northern hemisphere. Changing climate, altered disturbance regimes, land use, and increased herbivore pressure threaten these forests both in Eurasia and North America. In addition, rapid mortality dubbed “Sudden Aspen Decline” is a concern for aspen's long‐term presence in the western United States, especially Colorado and Utah. Yet it is still unclear whether aspen is persistent or declining at the landscape scale. We assessed aspen persistence at different spatial scales in the Colorado Front Range by resampling 89 plots containing aspen from among 305 vegetation plots sampled …

A Spatiotemporal Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Model Predicting Severity, Cycle Period, And Invasion Speed, Jacob P. Duncan

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae), a tree-killing bark beetle, has historically been part of the normal disturbance regime in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests. In recent years, warm winters and summers have allowed MPB populations to achieve synchronous emergence and successful attacks, resulting in widespread population outbreaks and resultant tree mortality across western North America. We develop an age-structured forest demographic model that incorporates temperature-dependent MPB infestations: the Susceptible-Infested-Juvenile (SIJ) model. Stability of equilibria is analyzed as a function of population growth rates, and indicates the existence of periodic outbreaks that intensify as growth rates …

Rapid Savanna Response To Changing Precipitation Intensity, Ryan S. Berry

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Climate change has the potential to cause large-scale changes in plant growth, biodiversity, and biosphere-climate feedbacks. A pervasive aspect of climate change is that as the atmosphere warms, precipitation events are likely to become less frequent but more intense, because warmer air can hold more water. Larger precipitation events can be expected to change plant productivity and community composition, particularly in semiarid ecosystems such as savannas. Savannas are of particular interest because they are spatially expansive at the global scale, they are important to humans for food production, and they are known to be sensitive to changes in soil water …