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A Spatiotemporal Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Model Predicting Severity, Cycle Period, And Invasion Speed, Jacob P. Duncan
A Spatiotemporal Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Model Predicting Severity, Cycle Period, And Invasion Speed, Jacob P. Duncan
All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023
The mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae), a tree-killing bark beetle, has historically been part of the normal disturbance regime in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests. In recent years, warm winters and summers have allowed MPB populations to achieve synchronous emergence and successful attacks, resulting in widespread population outbreaks and resultant tree mortality across western North America. We develop an age-structured forest demographic model that incorporates temperature-dependent MPB infestations: the Susceptible-Infested-Juvenile (SIJ) model. Stability of equilibria is analyzed as a function of population growth rates, and indicates the existence of periodic outbreaks that intensify as growth rates …