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Full-Text Articles in Law

A General Approach For Predicting The Behavior Of The Supreme Court Of The United States, Daniel Katz Apr 2017

A General Approach For Predicting The Behavior Of The Supreme Court Of The United States, Daniel Katz

All Faculty Scholarship

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time-evolving random forest classifier that leverages unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries ...


The Mythology Of Game Theory, Mathew D. Mccubbins, Mark Turner, Nick Weller Jan 2012

The Mythology Of Game Theory, Mathew D. Mccubbins, Mark Turner, Nick Weller

Faculty Scholarship

Non-cooperative game theory is at its heart a theory of cognition, specifically a theory of how decisions are made. Game theory's leverage is that we can design different payoffs, settings, player arrays, action possibilities, and information structures, and that these differences lead to different strategies, outcomes, and equilibria. It is well-known that, in experimental settings, people do not adopt the predicted strategies, outcomes, and equilibria. The standard response to this mismatch of prediction and observation is to add various psychological axioms to the game-theoretic framework. Regardless of the differing specific proposals and results, game theory uniformly makes certain cognitive ...


The Pragmatist’S Guide To Comparative Effectiveness Research, Amitabh Chandra, Anupam B. Jena, Jonathan Skinner Apr 2011

The Pragmatist’S Guide To Comparative Effectiveness Research, Amitabh Chandra, Anupam B. Jena, Jonathan Skinner

Dartmouth Scholarship

No abstract provided.


Is American Health Care Uniquely Inefficient?, Alan M. Garber, Jonathan Skinner Sep 2008

Is American Health Care Uniquely Inefficient?, Alan M. Garber, Jonathan Skinner

Dartmouth Scholarship

No abstract provided.


The World Grain Economy To 2050: A Dynamic General Equilibrium, Two Sector Approach To Long-Term World-Level Macroeconomic Forecasting, Benn Eifert, Carlos Galvez, Naureen Kabir, Avinash Kaza, Jack Moore, Christine Pham Jan 2002

The World Grain Economy To 2050: A Dynamic General Equilibrium, Two Sector Approach To Long-Term World-Level Macroeconomic Forecasting, Benn Eifert, Carlos Galvez, Naureen Kabir, Avinash Kaza, Jack Moore, Christine Pham

University Avenue Undergraduate Journal of Economics

Though fifty years is a tremendous time horizon for the forecasting of any trend involving the complex interactions of billions of people and billions of hectares of intricate planetary ecosystems, the analytic methodology of economics is the most capable toolbox available for such forecasting. At the center of such a forecast are two complex functions, supply and demand, coevolving over time and codetermining prices, production, investment, labor flows, export patterns, and most other major variables.