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Overestimating Wireless Demand: Policy And Investment Implications Of Upward Bias In Mobile Data Forecasts, J. Armand Musey Cfa, Aalok Mehta May 2015

Overestimating Wireless Demand: Policy And Investment Implications Of Upward Bias In Mobile Data Forecasts, J. Armand Musey Cfa, Aalok Mehta

J. Armand Musey, CFA

In this paper, we present evidence of persistent errors in projections of wireless demand and examine the implications for wireless policy and investment. Mobile demand projections are relied upon in academic and government research and used for critically important telecommunications policy decisions, both domestically and internationally. The Federal Communications Commission, for example, used such projections to estimate a 275 MHz spectrum shortage by 2014 and featured such estimates in the U.S. National Broadband Plan as evidence for allocating additional spectrum for cellular services. The International Telecommunications Union Radiocommunication Sector endorsed in 2006 an estimate of a 1,280- to 1,720-MHz spectrum …


Right-Sizing Spectrum Auction Licenses: The Case For Smaller Geographic License Areas In The Tv Broadcast Incentive Auction, William H. Lehr Phd, J. Armand Musey Cfa Apr 2015

Right-Sizing Spectrum Auction Licenses: The Case For Smaller Geographic License Areas In The Tv Broadcast Incentive Auction, William H. Lehr Phd, J. Armand Musey Cfa

J. Armand Musey, CFA

The wireless sector is a key contributor to economic activity and growth. Over the next several years, wireless service providers are expected to invest $25 to $53 billion upgrading and expanding their networks to deploy 4G mobile broadband across the nation. All told, wireless broadband investment and the services and innovation supported by such investment are expected to add between $259 and $355 billion to US GDP each year through 2017. The Federal Communications Commission ("Commission" or "FCC") is currently designing the largest ever auction of terrestrial wireless spectrum, currently planned for late 2014 (the "Incentive Auction"). The purpose is …


The Spectrum Handbook 2013, J. Armand Musey Cfa Jul 2013

The Spectrum Handbook 2013, J. Armand Musey Cfa

J. Armand Musey, CFA

This Handbook has three objectives: 1) to serve as a primer for explaining the complex issues around the use of electromagnetic spectrum; 2) to analyze, from both an economic and a legal perspective, the regulatory processes being considered or underway to reallocate or change the use of spectrum bands and; 3) to be a reference source for industry professionals. Part I of the Handbook provides an overview of the spectrum and the regulatory process. Part II of the Handbook explains the various available spectrum bands, discussing their range, location, and physical properties and how these impact their ability to be …


How The Traditional Property Rights Model Informs The Broadcast Television Spectrum Rationalization Challenge, J. Armand Musey Cfa Mar 2012

How The Traditional Property Rights Model Informs The Broadcast Television Spectrum Rationalization Challenge, J. Armand Musey Cfa

J. Armand Musey, CFA

This paper examines the prospective role of zoning rights and eminent domain in the Federal Communication Commission’s (“FCC”) challenge of reallocating underutilized television broadcast spectrum for use in significantly higher value mobile broadband applications. The government must reallocate the spectrum in an economically and legally efficient manner, balancing the interests of the politically powerful broadcasters and those of society as a whole. Recently, the government has decided to explore ways to incentivize the broadcasters to voluntarily return their spectrum licenses. From a strictly legal perspective, the broadcasters have a relatively weak claim to property rights. However, the government has indicated …