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2021

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Insurgents

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Full-Text Articles in Law

Coin Doctrine Is Wrong, M. Chris Mason May 2021

Coin Doctrine Is Wrong, M. Chris Mason

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Counterinsurgency does not increase the legitimacy of, or support for, central governments engaged in internal conflicts. Recent research shows quantifiable degrees of government legitimacy, national identity, and population security are necessary precursors and accurate predictors of a government’s ability to outlast a civil uprising. Because the first two predictors—government legitimacy and national identity—can be measured and do not increase during a conflict, the probability of government failure in most cases can be accurately predicted when the conflict starts.


The Coercive Logic Of Militant Drone Use, Austin C. Doctor, James I. Walsh May 2021

The Coercive Logic Of Militant Drone Use, Austin C. Doctor, James I. Walsh

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

While unmanned aerial systems can serve as a force multiplier for militants, these systems do not embody a transformation in modern insurgent warfare or enable militants to engage regularly in strategic coercion. Instead, drone use is consistent with a militant group’s relative capabilities and broader strategic objectives. Consequently, these groups are likely to employ drones primarily for theater and tactical military purposes.