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Evaluation Dispute Resolution Under Uncertainty: An Empirical Look At Bayes' Theorem And The Expected Value Of Perfect Information, Gregory Todd Jones, Douglas H. Yarn

Journal of Dispute Resolution

To begin, we review a standard model of litigation decision-making in Section I and propose an extension of this model to include ex post evaluative dispute resolution in Section II. Next, in Section III, we review the analytical concept of the expected value of perfect information as a means of placing a theoretical rational maximum on the value of the information provided by evaluative dispute resolution processes. In Section IV, we review Bayes' theorem and propose this as a rational benchmark for the integration of new information with previously existing subjective probabilities. In Section V, we offer a formal statement …