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Markets For Markets: Origins And Subjects Of Information Markets, Miriam A. Cherry, Robert L. Rogers
Markets For Markets: Origins And Subjects Of Information Markets, Miriam A. Cherry, Robert L. Rogers
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This Article focuses on why information markets have covered certain subject areas, sometimes of minor importance, while neglecting other subject areas of greater significance. To put it another way, why do information markets exist to predict the outcome of the papal conclave and the Michael Jackson trial, but no information markets exist to predict government policy conclusions, Supreme Court decisions, or the rulings in Delaware corporate law cases? Arguably, from either a dollar value or a social utility perspective, these areas of law and business would be more important than the outcome of, say, the Jackson trial. Why, then, do …
Tiresias And The Justices: Using Information Markets To Predict Supreme Court Decisions, Miriam A. Cherry, Robert L. Rogers
Tiresias And The Justices: Using Information Markets To Predict Supreme Court Decisions, Miriam A. Cherry, Robert L. Rogers
All Faculty Scholarship
This Article applies the emerging field of information markets to the prediction of Supreme Court decisions. Information markets, which aggregate information from a wide array of participants, have proven highly accurate in other contexts such as predicting presidential elections. Yet never before have they been applied to the Supreme Court, and the field of predicting Supreme Court outcomes remains underdeveloped as a result. We believe that creating a Supreme Court information market, which we have named Tiresias after the mythological Greek seer, will produce remarkably accurate predictions, create significant monetary value for participants, provide guidance for lower courts, and advance …