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Against Prediction: Sentencing, Policing, And Punishing In An Actuarial Age, Bernard E. Harcourt
Against Prediction: Sentencing, Policing, And Punishing In An Actuarial Age, Bernard E. Harcourt
Faculty Scholarship
Actuarial methods – i.e., the use of statistical rather than clinical methods on large datasets of criminal offending rates to determine different levels of offending associated with one or more group traits, in order to (1) predict past, present or future criminal behavior and (2) administer a criminal justice outcome – now permeates the criminal law and its enforcement. With the single exception of racial profiling against African-Americans and Hispanics, most people view the turn to the actuarial as efficient, rational, and wealth-maximizing. The fact is, law enforcement agencies can detect more crime with the same resources if they investigate …
An Analysis Of The Nypd's Stop-And-Frisk Policy In The Context Of Claims Of Racial Bias, Andrew Gelman, Alex Kiss, Jeffrey Fagan
An Analysis Of The Nypd's Stop-And-Frisk Policy In The Context Of Claims Of Racial Bias, Andrew Gelman, Alex Kiss, Jeffrey Fagan
Faculty Scholarship
Recent studies by police departments and researchers confirm that police stop racial and ethnic minority citizens more often than whites, relative to their proportions in the population. However, it has been argued stop rates more accurately reflect rates of crimes committed by each ethnic group, or that stop rates reflect elevated rates in specific social areas such as neighborhoods or precincts. Most of the research on stop rates and police-citizen interactions has focused on traffic stops, and analyses of pedestrian stops are rare. In this paper, we analyze data from 175,000 pedestrian stops by the New York Police Department over …