Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.^{®}
 Institution
 Keyword

 Litigation (1)
 Exclusion (1)
 Probabilities (1)
 Arrest (1)
 Burden of proof (1)

 Heuristics and biases (1)
 Discovery (1)
 Asymmetric distance (1)
 Legal scholarship (1)
 Affirmative action (1)
 Cultural Resources (1)
 Civil procedure (1)
 Probable cause (1)
 Exclusionary rule (1)
 Economics (1)
 Optimal search (1)
 Empirical similarity (1)
 Expected utility theory (1)
 Archaeology (1)
 Hazard mitigation (1)
 Expert shopping (1)
 Probability (1)
 Federal rules (1)
 Legal decisionmaking (1)
 Juries (1)
 Evidence (1)
 Bounded rationality (1)
 Planning (1)
 Decision making (1)
 Decision theory (1)
Articles 1  11 of 11
FullText Articles in Law
Surprise Vs. Probability As A Metric For Proof, Edward K. Cheng, Matthew Ginther
Surprise Vs. Probability As A Metric For Proof, Edward K. Cheng, Matthew Ginther
Vanderbilt Law School Faculty Publications
In this Symposium issue celebrating his career, Professor Michael Risinger in Leveraging Surprise proposes using "the fundamental emotion of surprise" as a way of measuring belief for purposes of legal proof. More specifically, Professor Risinger argues that we should not conceive of the burden of proof in terms of probabilities such as 51%, 95%, or even "beyond a reasonable doubt." Rather, the legal system should reference the threshold using "words of estimative surprise" asking jurors how surprised they would be if the fact in question were not true. Toward this goal (and being averse to cardinality), he suggests categories such ...
Asymmetric Empirical Similarity, Joshua C. Teitelbaum
Asymmetric Empirical Similarity, Joshua C. Teitelbaum
Georgetown Law Faculty Publications and Other Works
The paper offers a formal model of analogical legal reasoning and takes the model to data. Under the model, the outcome of a new case is a weighted average of the outcomes of prior cases. The weights capture precedential influence and depend on fact similarity (distance in fact space) and precedential authority (position in the judicial hierarchy). The empirical analysis suggests that the model is a plausible model for the time series of U.S. maritime salvage cases. Moreover, the results evince that prior cases decided by inferior courts have less influence than prior cases decided by superior courts.
Expert Mining And Required Disclosure, Jonah B. Gelbach
Expert Mining And Required Disclosure, Jonah B. Gelbach
Faculty Scholarship at Penn Law
No abstract provided.
Spatial Dynamics Of U.S. Cultural Resource Law, Robert Z. Selden Jr., C. Britt Bousman
Spatial Dynamics Of U.S. Cultural Resource Law, Robert Z. Selden Jr., C. Britt Bousman
CRHR: Archaeology
The American Antiquities Act, Historic Sites Act, Archeological and Historic Preservation Act, National Historic Preservation Act, American Indian Religious Freedom Act, Archeological Resources Protection Act, Abandoned Shipwreck Act, and the Native American Graves Protection and Repatriation Act comprise the basis of our exploration of cultural resource legislation in the United States. Since the passage of the American Antiquities Act in 1906, 1086 cases have challenged these statutes in U.S. courts. We investigate temporal and regional patterns of the case law to establish whether these laws are uniformly prosecuted throughout the U.S. Our findings suggest that case law is ...
Simplicial Complexes Obtained From Qualitative Probability Orders, Paul H. Edelman, Tatiana Gvozdeva, Arkadii Slinko
Simplicial Complexes Obtained From Qualitative Probability Orders, Paul H. Edelman, Tatiana Gvozdeva, Arkadii Slinko
Vanderbilt Law School Faculty Publications
The goal of this paper is to introduce a new class of simplicial complexes that naturally generalize the threshold complexes. These will be derived from qualitative probability orders on subsets of a finite set that generalize subset orders induced by probability measures. We show that this new class strictly contains the threshold complexes and is strictly contained in the shifted complexes. We conjecture that this class of complexes is exactly the set of strongly acyclic complexes, a class that has previously appeared in the context of cooperative games. Beyond the results themselves, this new class of complexes allows us to ...
Probabilities In Probable Cause And Beyond: Statistical Versus Concrete Harms, Sherry F. Colb
Probabilities In Probable Cause And Beyond: Statistical Versus Concrete Harms, Sherry F. Colb
Cornell Law Faculty Publications
No abstract provided.
Bounded Rationality And Legal Scholarship, Matthew D. Adler
Bounded Rationality And Legal Scholarship, Matthew D. Adler
Faculty Scholarship at Penn Law
Decision theory seems to offer a very attractive normative framework for individual and social choice under uncertainty. The decisionmaker should think of her choice situation, at any given moment, in terms of a set of possible outcomes, that is, specifications of the possible consequences of choice, described in light of the decisionmaker’s goals; a set of possible actions; and a "state set" consisting of possible prior "states of the world." It is this framework for choice which provides the foundation for expected utility theory, as demonstrated in the work of Leonard Savage. Problems arise, however, when the decisionmaker is ...
Why De Minimis?, Matthew D. Adler
Why De Minimis?, Matthew D. Adler
Faculty Scholarship
De minimis cutoffs are a familiar feature of risk regulation. This includes the quantitative individual risk thresholds for fatality risks employed in many contexts by EPA, FDA, and other agencies, such as the 1in1 million lifetime cancer risk cutoff; extreme event cutoffs for addressing natural hazards, such as the 100  year  flood or 475  year  earthquake; de minimis failure probabilities for built structures; the exclusion of low  probability causal models; and other policymaking criteria. All these tests have a common structure, as I show in the Article. A de minimis test, broadly defined, tells the decisionmaker to determine whether the ...
Against 'Individual Risk': A Sympathetic Critique Of Risk Assessment, Matthew D. Adler
Against 'Individual Risk': A Sympathetic Critique Of Risk Assessment, Matthew D. Adler
Faculty Scholarship at Penn Law
"Individual risk" currently plays a major role in risk assessment and in the regulatory practices of the health and safety agencies that employ risk assessment, such as EPA, FDA, OSHA, NRC, CPSC, and others. Risk assessors use the term "population risk" to mean the number of deaths caused by some hazard. By contrast, "individual risk" is the incremental probability of death that the hazard imposes on some particular person. Regulatory decision procedures keyed to individual risk are widespread. This is true both for the regulation of toxic chemicals (the heartland of risk assessment), and for other health hazards, such as ...
Almost Everybody Disagrees Almost All The Time: The Genericity Of Weakly Merging Nowhere, Ronald I. Miller, Chris William Sanchirico
Almost Everybody Disagrees Almost All The Time: The Genericity Of Weakly Merging Nowhere, Ronald I. Miller, Chris William Sanchirico
Faculty Scholarship at Penn Law
Suppose we randomly pull two agents from a population and ask them to observe an unfolding, infinite sequence of zeros and ones. If each agent starts with a prior belief about the true sequence and updates this belief on revelation of successive observations, what is the chance that the two agents will come to agree on the likelihood that the next draw is a one? In this paper we show that there is no chance. More formally, we show that under a very unrestrictive definition of what it means to draw priors “randomly,” the probability that two priors have any ...
Uncertainty, Efficiency, And The Brokerage Industry, Michael S. Knoll
Uncertainty, Efficiency, And The Brokerage Industry, Michael S. Knoll
Faculty Scholarship at Penn Law
No abstract provided.