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"A Good Man Always Knows His Limitations": Overconfidence In Criminal Offending, Thomas Loughran, Ray Paternoster, Alex R. Piquero, Jeffrey Fagan

Faculty Scholarship

Traditional criminological research in the area of rational choice and crime decisions places a strong emphasis on offenders’ perceptions of risk associated with various crimes. Yet, this literature has thus far generally neglected the role of individual overconfidence in both the formation of subjective risk perceptions and the association between risk and crime. In other types of high risk behaviors which serve as analogs to crime, including stock trading and uncertain business and investment decisions, overconfidence is shown to have a stimulating effect on an individuals’ willingness to engage in these behaviors. Using data from two separate samples, this paper …