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Hindsight Bias In Antitrust Law, Christopher R. Leslie

Vanderbilt Law Review

The modern field of study into hindsight bias was launched by Baruch Fischhoff. Fischhoff provided his research subjects with a primer on the 1810s conflict between British forces and Nepalese Gurkhas near Northern India. He suggested four possible outcomes: British victory, Gurkha victory, a peace settlement, and a military stalemate with no peace settlement. The subjects were then divided into five groups. One group was given no information about the ultimate outcome of the conflict. Subjects in each of the remaining four groups were told that one of the four outcomes had, in fact, occurred. The subjects were then asked …