Law Commons^™

Betting On Climate Policy: Using Prediction Markets To Address Global Warming, Gary M. Lucas Jr, Felix Mormann

Gary M. Lucas Jr.

Global warming, sea level rise, and extreme weather events have made climate change a top priority for policymakers across the globe. But which policies are best suited to tackle the enormous challenges presented by our changing climate? This Article proposes that policymakers turn to prediction markets to answer that crucial question. Prediction markets have a strong track record of outperforming other forecasting mechanisms across a wide range of contexts — from predicting election outcomes and economic trends to guessing Oscar winners. In the context of climate change, market participants could, for example, bet on important climate outcomes conditioned on the …

Behavioral Public Choice And The Law, Gary M. Lucas Jr., Slavisa Tasic

Gary M. Lucas Jr.

No abstract provided.

Voter Psychology And The Carbon Tax, Gary M. Lucas Jr

Gary M. Lucas Jr.

Economists across the political spectrum argue that a carbon tax is the most effective and economically efficient policy for addressing climate change. Voters, however, strongly oppose the carbon tax and instead favor “green” subsidies and command-and-control regulations. If carefully designed, these policies might complement a carbon tax, but by themselves, they will make global warming mitigation incredibly expensive and perhaps even infeasible. Moreover, if poorly designed, subsidies and regulations can be counterproductive.

This Article argues that the public dislikes the carbon tax because the tax possesses attributes that make it psychologically unappealing relative to other climate policy instruments. The Article …

Measuring Scholarly Impact: A Guide For Law School Administrators And Legal Scholars, Gary M. Lucas Jr

Gary M. Lucas Jr.

The author intends for this Essay to serve as a guide for law deans and legal scholars interested in measuring the impact of legal scholarship. In addition, university administrators should find it helpful for comparing the impact of their own law faculty’s scholarship with the scholarship of law faculties at other universities. The primary obstacle to such comparisons is a dearth of publicly available information. To that end, the Essay recommends that each law school create a Google Scholar profile for its faculty and explains the procedures for doing so. By acting on this recommendation, administrators would dramatically improve our …

Measuring Scholarly Impact: A Guide For Law School Administrators And Legal Scholars, Gary M. Lucas Jr.

Gary M. Lucas Jr.

No abstract provided.

Behavioral Public Choice And The Carbon Tax, Gary M. Lucas Jr

Gary M. Lucas Jr.

In response to the historic Paris Agreement on climate change and to the Environmental Protection Agency’s recently finalized Clean Power Plan, economists and other climate policy experts have renewed the call for the United States to adopt a carbon tax. Opposition among the public presents a major obstacle. While a majority of the public supports government action on climate change, most people favor the use of “green” subsidies and command-and-control regulations—a fact that frustrates economists of all political stripes who contend that a carbon tax would be much cheaper and more effective. This Article argues that a cognitive bias known …

Behavioral Public Choice And The Law, Gary M. Lucas Jr., Slaviša Tasić

Gary M. Lucas Jr.

Behavioral public choice is the study of irrationality among political actors. In this context, irrationality means systematic bias, a deviation from rational expectations, or other departure from economists’ conception of rationality. Behavioral public choice scholars extend the insights of behavioral economics to the political realm and show that irrational behavior is an important source of government failure. This Article makes an original contribution to the legal literature by systematically reviewing the findings of behavioral public choice and explaining their implications for the law and legal institutions. We discuss the various biases and heuristics that lead political actors to support and …

Paternalism And Psychic Taxes: The Government's Use Of Negative Emotions To Save Us From Ourselves, Gary M. Lucas Jr

Gary M. Lucas Jr.

Paternalism has become increasingly popular among policymakers. Governments at all levels are seriously considering or have recently adopted many paternalistic proposals. For example, the Obama Administration has increased cigarette taxes and adopted a tax on indoor tanning. Similarly, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has proposed a ban on the sale of soda and other sugary drinks in containers larger than sixteen ounces. All of these policies are motivated to some degree by a desire to save people from themselves.

This Article analyzes whether the government should use "psychic taxes" as a tool for achieving paternalistic goals. A psychic tax …

Saving Smokers From Themselves: The Paternalistic Use Of Cigarette Taxes, Gary M. Lucas Jr.

Gary M. Lucas Jr.

Governments at all levels have significantly increased cigarette taxes in recent years. Under the framework traditionally used by tax policy analysts, these tax increases are justified (1) if they are necessary to force smokers to internalize the harm that smoking causes others or (2) if they are a fair and efficient way to fund the government. But economists have generally concluded that on net, smokers do not impose large costs on third parties. In addition, heavily taxing cigarettes places a significant financial burden on low-income smokers and their families, which raises fairness concerns. As a result, scholars who support cigarette …

The Taxation Of Emissions Permits Distributed For Free As Part Of A Carbon Cap-And-Trade Program, Gary M. Lucas Jr

Gary M. Lucas Jr.

Climate change legislation is one of the Obama administration's top priorities. The administration has proposed regulating carbon emissions using a cap-and-trade program. If adopted, the program will place a cap on the aggregate carbon emissions of certain firms. Under the program, the government will create emissions permits in an amount corresponding to the cap and will require certain firms to surrender a permit for each ton of carbon emitted. After the government initially distributes permits, firms will be able to buy and sell them on a secondary market.

Both the administration and many economists prefer that the government initially distribute …

Out Of Sight, Out Of Mind: How Opportunity Cost Neglect Undermines Democracy, Gary M. Lucas Jr

Gary M. Lucas Jr.

Every government program has an opportunity cost, which consists of the private and public goods that society must forgo to make the program possible. In evaluating government programs, rational voters would take opportunity costs into account. Unfortunately, opportunity costs are usually implicit, and psychologists have shown that decision makers tend to irrationally ignore implicit information while giving too much weight to salient situational elements. This Article presents evidence that the bias against implicit information causes voters to neglect the opportunity costs of government programs. The Article also explains for the first time the implications of opportunity cost neglect for democracy.