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Uncertainty Revisited: Legal Prediction And Legal Postdiction, Ehud Guttel, Alon Harel
Uncertainty Revisited: Legal Prediction And Legal Postdiction, Ehud Guttel, Alon Harel
Michigan Law Review
Legal scholarship, following rational-choice theory, has traditionally treated uncertainty as a single category. A large body of experimental studies, however, has established that individuals treat guesses concerning the future differently than guesses concerning the past. Even where objective probabilities and payoffs are identical, individuals are much more willing to predict a future event (and are more confident in the accuracy of their predictions) than they are willing to postdict a past event (and are also less confident in the accuracy of their postdiction). For example, individuals are more willing to bet on the results of a future die toss than …
Temporary Accidents?, M. Elizabeth Magill
Temporary Accidents?, M. Elizabeth Magill
Michigan Law Review
In Part I of this Review, I will summarize Croley's book, focusing on his powerful critique of public choice theory and the alternative account that he develops and defends. Part II assesses the book, arguing that Croley is successful in demonstrating agency autonomy but less successful in showing that either administrator motivations or the administrative process tend to make agencies regulate in welfare-enhancing ways. As is often the case, the critique is more powerful than the construction of the alternative account. Even so, Croley's book should alter debates over the possibility of good government by placing the agency and how …
Rational Choice, Reputation, And Human Rights Treaties, Alex Geisinger, Michael Ashley Stein
Rational Choice, Reputation, And Human Rights Treaties, Alex Geisinger, Michael Ashley Stein
Michigan Law Review
Part I of this Review sets forth Guzman's general theory of international law with specific consideration of the way reputation influences state behavior. Part II then tests Guzman's overarching thesis by applying it to human rights treaties and concludes that explaining states' entry into human rights treaties requires a broader conception of reputation than Rational Choice allows.